Pantheon Publications

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production, Eurozone, August 2025

In one line: Down sharply; unsurprising given drop in German output.

EZ Datanote: ZEW, Germany, October 2025

In one line: Investors think things will get worse before they get better in Germany.

EZ Datanote: Trade Balance, Germany, August 2025

In one line: Falling imports boost surplus.

9 October 2025 Eurozone Monitor Italy's fiscal plans actually make sense...yes, we're shocked too

• Italy’s deficit will shrink this year but still exceed the EU’s 3%-of-GDP limit and the government’s target. 
• Its 2026 budget plans are mildly expansionary, including a cut to taxes for middle-income earners…
• ...while little consensus on offsetting revenue-raising measures exists among the coalition. 

EZ Datanote: Retail Sales, Eurozone, August 2025

In one line: Spending on goods in EZ went nowhere in Q3. 

EZ Datanote: Sentix, Eurozone, October 2025

In one line: Not quite the catch up we expected but still pointing to upside risks to growth.

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production, Spain, August 2025

In one line: Down marginally, likely rebounded in September.

Global Datanote: Inflation, Switzerland, September 2025

• In one line: At 0.2% for third straight month.

EZ Datanote: Inflation, Switzerland, September 2025

In on line: At 0.2% for third straight month.

3 October 2025 Eurozone Monitor Swiss inflation is low and set to fall, but the SNB will ignore it

• Swiss inflation held at 0.2% for the third straight month; it will remain stuck near zero until Q2 2026. 
• The SNB has said it will ignore negative inflation prints in the near term… 
• ...We expect the next rate move to be up, in 2027, despite downside risks to our inflation forecasts.

EZ Datanote: ISTAT Business Confidence, Italy, September 2025

In one line: Consistent with a rebound in GDP in Q3.

Global Datanote: SNB Rate Decision, Q3 2025

In one line: No cut today; is the SNB easing cycle over?

EZ Datanote: SNB Rate Decision, Q3 2025

In one line: No cut today; is the SNB easing cycle over? 

26 September 2025 Eurozone Monitor SNB stands pat; we now think the easing cycle is over

• The Swiss National Bank held its policy rate at 0.0% yesterday, where we now think it will stay until 2027. 
• The Bank said it was keeping its options open, but in our view the Chairman closed the door to more cuts.
• The next move in Swiss rates will be upward, despite inflation likely falling to year-end and downside risks.

Global Datanote: Flash PMIs, Eurozone, September 2025

In one line: Eking out some growth. 

EZ Datanote: Flash PMIs, Eurozone, September 2025

In one line: Eking out some growth. 

EZ Datanote: Advance Consumer Confidence, Eurozone, September 2025

In one line: Improving, but still subdued. 

19 September 2025 Eurozone Monitor Arguments for and against an SNB rate cut next week

• It will be a close call but we see more reasons for the SNB to cut its key policy rate next week than to hold. 
• Inflation is low and set to fall, while other tools will not be as effective in fighting deflationary pressures. 
• We look for the Swiss central bank to cut by 25bp to -0.25%, leaving it the lowest policy rate in the world.

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production, Eurozone, July 2025

In one line: Industry barely budged in early Q3.

EZ Datanote: Trade, EZ, July 2025

In one line: The drag on GDP from net trade in goods is disappearing.