Pantheon Macroeconomics

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Pantheon Publications

Below is a list of our Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)

EZ Datanote: Trade Balance, Eurozone, August 2024

In one line: EZ trade balance pulled lower by rising imports, again. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

16 October 2024 Eurozone Monitor EZ auto sector struggling to shift into the right gear

  • EZ car production remains well below pre-pandemic levels and is still facing headwinds… 
  • ...Demand is subdued, and new emissions standards come into effect in 2025. 
  • The sector will stay on the back foot without a push to innovate, most notably to develop cheaper EVs.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production, Italy, August 2024

In one line: Still on track for a sixth straight quarterly fall in Q3.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Retail Sales, EZ, August 2024

In one line: Probably underestimating the true strength in sales.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production, France, August 2024

In one line:  Q3 will be better than expected for French industry. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

Global Datanote: Final PMIs, Eurozone, September

In one line: Likely to fall further this month but also likely overdoing the weakness in the economy.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Global

EZ Datanote: Final PMIs, Eurozone, September 2024

In one line: Likely to fall further this month but also likely overdoing the weakness in the economy.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

4 October 2024 Eurozone Monitor Swiss inflation falls below 1% and has further to slide

  • Swiss inflation fell below 1% in September for the first time since 2021. 
  • Inflation averaged 1.1% in Q3, in line with the SNB’s call, but will fall further than the Bank expects in Q4. 
  • The door is wide open for further rate cuts; the SNB could take its key policy rate close to zero.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

3 October 2024 Eurozone Monitor Robust EZ labour market unlikely to derail further ECB easing

  • The Eurozone unemployment rate held at 6.4% in September and is likely to remain steady for now. 
  • The ECB also sees a broadly unchanged unemployment rate over the coming quarters. 
  • A still-tight labour market will prevent neither a slowdown in wage growth nor more ECB easing.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

Global Datanote: Advance Inflation, Eurozone, September 2024

In one line: Fall in core confirmed & headline below the ECB’s target; October’s rate cut is a go

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Global

EZ Datanote: Advance Inflation, Eurozone, September 2024

In one line: Fall in core confirmed & headline below the ECB’s target; October’s rate cut is a go

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

2 October 2024 Eurozone Monitor October's rate cut is on; deposit rate set to end 2024 at 3%

  • Headline inflation in the EZ fell below the ECB’s target in September for the first time since 2021.
  • Deeper energy deflation was the main drag, but core inflation also eased a touch.
  • We look for the ECB to cut twice more this year, by 25bp in both October and December.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Advance Inflation, Germany, September 2024

In one line: German HICP inflation falls below 2% for the first time since March 2021; it will increase again in Q4. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

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independent macro research, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence