- We think EZ headline and core inflation fell by 0.1pp in March, to 2.2% and 2.5% respectively.
- Easter effects depressed German services inflation in March, but core goods inflation in Italy jumped.
- German retail sales were stronger at the start of 2025 than we expected; upside risk to Q1 growth?
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Consumers are raising credit-card borrowing rapidly and cutting saving to support spending.
- Liquid asset accumulation shows households saving the least since August 2023.
- Falling finance raised by corporates, however, suggests investment will stagnate in early 2025.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
In one line: Headline in line with consensus; core looks strong considering Easter effects.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- In one line: First red ink since mid-2023, as the inexplicable lift from ‘other’ sales continues to unwind.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Poor headlines, but we think growth momentum will remain positive in H1.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
In one line: Great, but leading indicators point to a slowdown.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
China's manufacturing PMI nudges up, but sentiment ebbs
Duncan WrigleyChina+
China's manufacturing PMI nudges up, but sentiment ebbs; construction order slump is worrying
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- In one line: On hold, as uncertainty lingers.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
Clear signs of an underlying consumer slowdown.
Samuel TombsUS
In one line: Still averaged higher in Q1 than Q4.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: EZ inflation expectations hold steady; further increases in German unemployment are on the way.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Inflation in France and Spain came in below expectations; another setback in French spending.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- In one line: Growth recovered in Q4 as Budget uncertainty passed but President Trump’s tariff hammer hangs over the outlook.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: The trade balance will remain weak as energy prices remain high and uncertainty prevails.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line:Retail sales continue their post-Budget rebound and will drive a growth recovery in Q1
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
Tokyo inflation picks up, but the BoJ's immediate focus will be on US auto tariffs
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Tokyo inflation picks up, but the BoJ's immediate focus will be on US auto tariffs
Duncan WrigleyChina+
