- US - October core PCE likely up 0.30%, but details will reassure the FOMC
- EUROZONE - What are the SNB’s options as it edges closer to a policy rate of 0%?
- UK - Mr. Trump’s tariffs will have a limited direct impact on UK GDP
- CHINA+ - China’s household spending boosted by policy; GDP growth target in reach
- EM ASIA - Don’t get carried away by Thailand’s scorching hot Q3 GDP
- LATAM - The LatAm service is on holiday this week, returning next week.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- Eurozone headline inflation rebounded in October, and in November it will rise again a touch, to 2.3%.
- We see little in the EZ inflation data to justify a 50bp rate cut in December; we still look for 25bp.
- The ECB will soon need to answer questions about the neutral rate and the net effect of Trump tariffs.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The MPC is forecasting private pay growth, excluding bonuses, to slow to 3.25% in Q4 2025.
- But the vacancy-to-unemployment ratio is high and rising CPI inflation in 2025 could boost pay…
- ...so we expect private ex-bonus AWE growth to slow to 4.0% in Q4 2025, with risks skewed up.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We think the composite EZ PMI rose in November; the employment index is the main downside risk.
- Front-running Trump tariffs is an upside risk for the Eurozone manufacturing PMIs in coming months.
- Negotiated wage growth accelerated in Q3, but we doubt that markets will take note.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The MPC is rightly encouraged by inflation expectations falling well below their 2022 peak.
- The BoE’s expectations survey is biased down, however, and YouGov expectations recently surged.
- Consumers are more attentive to inflation now; the MPC needs to be cautious as inflation rises in 2025.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
In one line: Goods surplus rebounded in September; net trade was still a drag on growth in Q3.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
Broad-based investment comeback drives Thailand’s market-beating Q3 GDP print
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Flat ex-Boeing and ex-storms; the trend will remain weak next year.
Samuel TombsUS
Constrained by hurricanes and falling prices; real consumption still likely to grow briskly in Q4.
Samuel TombsUS
- In one line:The underlying GDP trend is stronger than the headline fall, which was dragged down by a huge erratic fall in IT.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: The headline trade deficit widens as erratics and metals give up their surpluses.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
In one line: Subdued, but both the headline and core will rise in November.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
Trade-in subsidies lift retail sales of autos and consumer goods
Residential sales stabilise
Manufacturing output making steady progress
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- In one line: An overdue bounce in demand from India moves the export recovery forward.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
An overdue bounce in demand from India moves Indonesia’s export recovery forward
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: A modest cut while keeping the door open for further reductions.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
