Pantheon Publications

EZ Datanote: ISTAT Confidence, Italy, September 2024

In one line: Rising again.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

Global Datanote: SNB Rate Decision, Q3 2024

In one line: Thomas Jordan ends reign as SNB Chairman with a cut; more easing is on the way.  

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Global

EZ Datanote: SNB Rate Decision, Q3 2024

In one line: Thomas Jordan ends reign as SNB Chairman with a cut; more easing is on the way.  

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

27 September 2024 Eurozone Monitor The end of an era at the SNB, but not the end of easing

• The SNB has lowered its inflation forecasts towards our estimates, blaming a stronger CHF. 
• It is unhappy with EURCHF and uncomfortable with its new end-of-horizon inflation call. 
• We thought another cut would come in December, and we now also think it will trim rates in March.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

25 September 2024 Eurozone Monitor Thomas Jordan to end his stint as SNB Chairman with another cut

• Inflation has been lower than the SNB expected in Q3; it will cut its inflation forecasts this week… 
• ...Thomas Jordan will go out with a bang, cutting rates for the fifth time as SNB Chairman. 
• We look for at least one more cut, in December; risks are tilted towards less easing than we expect.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

Global Datanote: Advance PMIs, France, September

In one line: Boost from the Olympics in August disappeared in September.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Global

EZ Datanote: Advance PMIs, France, September

In one line:  Boost from the Olympics in August disappeared in September.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

18 September 2024 Eurozone Monitor Italy's budget deficit will fall less than Rome expects

• The day of reckoning for Italy's public finances under the new EU fiscal rules has been delayed… 
• ...Rome will submit its new MTFS plan 10 days late, at month-end; it needs more spending cuts. 
• A sub-4% deficit this year is just wishful thinking; it will remain above 4% until 2026.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production, Italy, July 2024

In one line: A hefty fall; set for a sixth quarter-on-quarter decline.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production, Spain, July 2024

In one line: Starting Q3 on weak footing. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

11 September 2024 Eurozone Monitor Industry in Spain heads for recession, as in the rest of the EZ

• Italian industry remains in recession in Q3, in line with its German counterpart… 
• ...Spanish industry is now joining the recession party, though it is still faring better than elsewhere. 
• The outlook for EZ industry remains bleak, especially given signs of still-weak import demand from China.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Sentix, Eurozone, September 2024

In one line: Held back by deteriorating views on Germany.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Detailed GDP, Eurozone, Q2 2024

In one line: Revised down; held back by consumption and investment.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production & Trade Balance, France, July

In one line: Not as weak as the German figures. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production & Trade Balance, Germany, July

In one line: Industry is unlikely to recover until the external picture improves.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

6 September 2024 Eurozone Monitor German industrial output fell in July; ignore EZ retail data for now

• July’s German factory orders increase was driven by major orders; jump in June’s core orders was a blip. 
• German industrial turnover figures point to output data today coming in well below consensus. 
• EZ retail sales are still being compiled without German figures and cannot be relied upon.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Retail Sales, EZ, July 2024

In one line: Likely too downbeat; still no German data.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Factory Orders, Germany, July 2024

In one line: Not as good as first appears. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone