Pantheon Publications

Global Datanote: BanRep Announcement, Colombia, March, 2025

• In one line: On hold, as uncertainty lingers.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global

PM Datanote: US Personal Incomes & Spending, February

Clear signs of an underlying consumer slowdown.

Samuel TombsUS

EZ Datanote: ESI, EZ, March 2025

In one line: Still averaged higher in Q1 than Q4.  

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: ISTAT Confidence, Italy, March 2025

In one line: Business sentiment eases. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: ECB Consumer Inflation Expectations, EZ, February & Unemployment, Germany, March

In one line: EZ inflation expectations hold steady; further increases in German unemployment are on the way.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Advance Inflation, France/Spain, Mar & INSEE Consumers' Spending, France, Feb

In one line:  Inflation in France and Spain came in below expectations; another setback in French spending. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

UK Datanote: UK National Accounts, Q4 2024

• In one line: Growth recovered in Q4 as Budget uncertainty passed but President Trump’s tariff hammer hangs over the outlook.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: UK International Trade, January 2025

• In one line: The trade balance will remain weak as energy prices remain high and uncertainty prevails.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: Retail Sales, February 2025

• In one line:Retail sales continue their post-Budget rebound and will drive a growth recovery in Q1

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

China+ Datanote: Tokyo CPI, Japan, March

Tokyo inflation picks up, but the BoJ's immediate focus will be on US auto tariffs

Duncan WrigleyChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 28 March 2025: Tokyo inflation rises

Tokyo inflation picks up, but the BoJ's immediate focus will be on US auto tariffs

Duncan WrigleyChina+

EZ Datanote: GfK/NIM Consumer Confidence, Germany, March 2025

In one line:  Election result does little to lift household sentiment.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 28 March 2025

Philippine trade takes a breather after a fast start to 2025

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

31 March 2025 US Monitor Tariffs will be too small to drive a sustained downturn in consumption

• GDP looks set to grow at a mere 1% pace in Q1, following February’s weak consumption data.
• Fading pre-tariff frontrunning, however, explains the slowdown; core services spending is still rising.
• Tariffs will weigh on real income growth by less than 1%; recession remains unlikely.

Samuel TombsUS

31 March 2025 LatAm Monitor Tough days for Banxico demand bold monetary policy action

• Banxico extends easing with another 50bp cut, citing disinflation and weakening economic activity.
• Policymakers are likely to maintain their pace near term, before gradually shifting to smaller rate cuts.
• US auto tariffs threaten Mexico’s exports, manufacturing supply chains and capex outlook.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

31 March 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor We're not its biggest fans, but IDR concerns look very overblown

• Don’t pay too much heed to the panic over the IDR; the current account fundamentals are sound…
• …Plus, the bad fiscal start could just be a blip and foreign investor s are steadily returning to the fray.
• The big misses in Philippine trade data for February, particularly in imports, aren’t as bad as they seem.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

31 March 2025 China+ Monitor The BoJ to focus on tariff impact, as food inflation builds again

• Tokyo inflation rose in March, due to higher goods and se vices inflation despite cooling fresh food inflation.
• April inflation is likely to jump after energy subsidies expire, while non-perishable food inflation rises.
• Still, the BoJ, focusing on the impact of higher US auto tariffs, is likely to keep the policy rate steady on May 1.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

31 March 2025 Eurozone Monitor Last week's data had something for both ECB hawks and doves

• French and Spanish inflation came in weaker than expected in March, and German joblessness rose...
• ...But consumer inflation expectations and selling price expectations are up and money supply firmed.
• The April decision by the ECB is now finely poised; a dovish March HICP could swing it for the doves.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

31 March 2025 UK Monitor Forecast review: Shadow of tariffs hangs over improving economy

• UK consumers are finding their feet, and likely boosted Q1 GDP growth to 0.3% quarter-to-quarter.
• Stubborn inflation pressures will keep the MPC to only two more rate cuts this year.
• But President Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ hangs over the outlook, posing major risks to growth and inflation.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

PM Datanote: US Pending Home Sales, February

 Sales likely to remain in the doldrums.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US