- In one line: Bad weather holds back retail sales again.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
How long will the bounce in Indonesian sales last with confidence fading?
Philippine sales growth continues to fluctuate wildly around zero
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- US - Fears of a labor market downturn will supplant inflation worries at the Fed
- EUROZONE - Right wing in France suffers defeat, as do French pollsters
- UK - Huge Labour majority will usher in modestly better growth
- CHINA+ - PBoC preparing to boost long-term bond yields
- EM ASIA - June CPI laying the groundwork for BSP and BoT cuts next month
- LATAM - Brazil’s economic tightrope; the COPOM faces a balancing act
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- Mr. Powell still wants more good inflation data, but the tiring job market is gaining more of his attention.
- The NFIB survey ticked up in June, but pressure on the economy from high rates remains intense.
- The pick-up in Redbook sales almost certainly overstates current momentum in consumers’ spending.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Mexico’s core inflation slows, hinting at rates cuts, despite weather-related pressures.
- Colombia’s core inflation continues to ease, paving the way for BanRep rate cuts…
- …but fiscal concerns and external challenges will likely limit the acceleration of the rate-cutting pace.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Indonesian retail sales growth saw only a tepid rebound in May, to 2.1%, with confidence waning…
- …The only good news is that retailers’ sales expectations is finally seeing a turnaround.
- Sales momentum in the Philippines is even weaker, with no clear light at the end of the tunnel.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The fall in Eurozone house prices eased for the second straight quarter in Q1…
- ...and we see signs that demand is picking up sooner than we thought amid falling interest rates.
- We now think house prices will be broadly flat in 2024 after they slid by 1.2% in 2023.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- CPI inflation likely fell to 1.9% in June, from 2.0% in May, 0.1pp below the MPC’s forecast.
- We expect June CPI services inflation to exceed the MPC’s forecast by the same 42bp margin as in May.
- Rate-setters whose June vote was a close call will be happy with the same services inflation miss as May.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Job gains are no longer “strong”; Powell might signal rates will be cut swiftly if the slowdown continues.
- Consumers are increasingly worried about losing their jobs, and for good reason.
- NFIB survey likely to suggest that small businesses remain under pressure from high rates.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Inflation undershot expectations in June, which likely will allow the central bank to cut rates further.
- Risks remain, though; electricity tariffs are set to rise, but soft domestic demand will help to ease the hit.
- Reduced pension-system uncertainty and benign global conditions will allow further rate normalisation.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Overall Japanese wage growth remained sluggish in May, though manufacturing pay rose faster.
- China’s foreign reserves were hit by currency- valuation effects and equity market outflows in June.
- The PBoC’s additional OMO flexibility is likely signalling upcoming government-bond sales.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Marine Le Pen’s RN fell flat on its face in the French parliamentary elections. The centre (left) holds on.
- The path to a working government in France is unclear, but OAT-Bund spreads have likely peaked.
- Germany’s trade surplus jumped in May, due mainly to a crash in imports; the July Sentix dropped.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- We expect PAYE employment to rise 5K in June, while the unemployment rate should hold at 4.4%.
- We think private-sector AWE will rise 0.6% month-to-month in May, as April’s NLW hike feeds through.
- Pay beating the MPC’s 0.2% forecast would support our call that it will wait until September to cut rates.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Volatile due to the general election, but pay growth seems to be rising.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
In one line: Still consistent with a rebound in the PMI, despite falling.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
Japan's overall wage growth still sluggish
Improvement narrowly confined to full-time manufacturing workers
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Foreign reserves hit by currency valuation effects and equity market outflows
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Weakening in private payroll growth points to multiple rate cuts in H2.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
In one line: Goods spending is not benefitting from the recovery in real incomes, yet.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
