- Recent data indicate Brazil’s Q3 GDP growth should be strong, but worries are mounting for 2025.
- Lula’s government is facing pressure to implement fiscal adjustments to prevent a downturn in H1.
- Banxico faces uncertainty as external factors complicate its future decisions on rate adjustments.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- China’s consumer inflation is dragged down by volatile food and energy prices, but core prices are improving.
- Producer deflation steepened, masking construction-material price rises, likely due to stimulus demand.
- Mr. Trump’s US election victory will depress Chinese growth and likely keep inflation subdued for longer.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- EZ GDP and employment beat forecasts in Q3; we expect both to ease in Q4…
- ...But neither will slow enough to convince the ECB to ramp up the pace of easing.
- EZ industry remains in a rut and will again be a drag on growth in Q4, even if US firms front-load orders.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Similar to the market, we think the UK Budget and Mr. Trump’s election will boost UK inflation and rates.
- But we consider the sell-off in gilts overdone, with the market pricing only two rate cuts by August.
- Gilt yields will likely stay elevated near term, but we expect 10-year yields to drop to 4.1% by end-2025.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: A December rate cut is only just barely alive; a weak Q3 GDP print could still sway things.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: A December rate cut is only just barely alive; a weak Q3 GDP print could still sway things.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
October's improvement mostly reflects politics.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- Brazil — Hit by global and domestic uncertainty
- Mexico — Trump 2.0 hurting prospects
- Colombia — Uncertainty looming large
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- The US election result signals economic challenges for LatAm, amid rising inflation and interest rates.
- Peru’s BCRP has adopted a cautious stance due to global uncertainty and potential US tariff impacts.
- Chile is facing deteriorating economic conditions as inflation surges and the CLP weakens sharply.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Our final Q3 GDP growth forecast for India sees it collapsing further to 6.0%, from 6.7% in Q2…
- …Falling short of the RBI’s view for a bounce to 7.0% and keeping the door open to a December rate cut.
- October CPI was very hot, but food inflation—and, by extension, the headline—likely has peaked.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- EZ food inflation has been edging up in recent months, mostly due to base effects.
- Factory-gate prices suggest it will continue to rise though; the 2022-to-23 shock will persist in the data.
- Higher food inflation will keep the headline elevated, supporting our call for higher ECB rates for longer.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- CPI inflation likely rose to 2.2% in October, from 1.7% in September, matching the MPC’s forecast.
- The rise will be driven by Ofgem’s 9.5% energy utility price-cap hike and a small rise in services inflation.
- Rebounding airfares and hotel price inflation should boost services, but both are highly uncertain.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Gradually easing labour market will allow the MPC to keep cutting rates gradually
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
In one line: Core firmer; upside risks to electricity tariffs?
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
Frustratingly slow recovery in Indonesian retail sales continues
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Core retail sales usually struggle after hurricanes, and warm weather likely weighed on clothing sales.
- Carryover from Q3 will support growth in consumption in Q4, but expect slower gains from here.
- Credit conditions remain very restrictive, as banks have continued to tighten lending standards.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- US - Mr. Trump’s win likely slams the door on rapid Fed normalization next year
- EUROZONE - Early elections in Germany will pave the way for looser fiscal policy
- UK - A cautious MPC will cut rates once per quarter at most
- CHINA+ - China refrains from knee-jerk response to Mr. Trump’s election win
- EM ASIA - GDP growth in Indonesia slips below 5% in Q3, as we predicted
- LATAM - LatAm central banks to adopt a hawkish stance post-US election
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
