Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Daily Monitor Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)
- Ignore Malaysia’s smaller trade surplus in August, as the economy ramps up intermediate imports...
- ...The recovery in electronics exports continues to gather steam, powering manufacturing growth.
- The CBC sounds increasingly desperate in trying to rein in housing prices; an uphill task, in our view.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Electronics to the US for AI-related investment continue to support Taiwanese export growth…
- …This demand is likely to remain firm, but its strong performance hides weakness elsewhere.
- The July fall in Malaysian retail sales growth is more likely stabilisation, rather than real weakness.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- BNM is likely to stay on hold for the rest of 2024, faced with slowing CPI and a strong GDP outlook.
- Taiwanese CPI is set to benefit from slower imported inflation, but rental growth is still a worry.
- Singaporean retail sales growth is likely to remain weak for most of H2, barring friendly base effects.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Malaysian headline inflation benefited from food disinflation, which offset higher services inflation...
- …But this engine of disinflation is likely to stall in the coming months, resulting in the headline rising.
- We still expect the BNM to hold policy rates in 2024, as average inflation is below its forecast.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Both export and import growth in Malaysia beat consensus by a large margin in July…
- …But the stronger surge in import growth resulted in the trade surplus more than halving.
- Smaller trade surpluses are likely to be typical in H2, but a pick-up in real activity should support GDP.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Q2 GDP growth in Taiwan surprised to the upside, coming in at 5.1%, after 6.6% in Q1...
- ...Benefiting from higher external demand for AI-related manufacturing and investment.
- We now expect stronger 2024 GDP growth, at 4.1%, compared to 3.7% previously.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Headline inflation in Singapore fell sharply in June, mainly benefiting from lower COE prices...
- ...But the stickiness of core inflation should keep the MAS from loosening policy for the rest of 2024.
- Taiwanese retail sales growth picked up in June, but weak real wage growth is clouding the H2 outlook.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Malaysian headline export growth slowed in June on weaker re-export and electronics growth…
- …Adverse base effects dominated the headline damage though, masking a monthly improvement.
- The electronics recovery and stronger commodities exports should support headline growth in H2.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Non-oil domestic export growth in Singapore ended H2 on a disappointing note…
- …As electronics and non-monetary gold exports slumped, even as intermediate goods rose.
- Electronics exports look unlikely to regain May’s high, but H2 should still see a growth recovery.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Singapore’s Q2 GDP beat the consensus thanks to the recovery in goods-producing industries...
- ...Powered by an upswing in manufacturing and robust construction activity.
- We raise our 2024 GDP growth forecast to 2.7% from 2.4% previously, up from 1.1% in 2023.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- BNM held its policy rate this month, as it waits to see the impact of the diesel-subsidy removal…
- …A relatively strong growth outlook is providing it with the bandwidth for a continued pause.
- Malaysian GDP growth likely improved to 4.8% year-over-year in Q2, from 4.2% in Q1.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Malaysian headline inflation picked up in May due to a sharp rise in the price of streaming services…
- …It will rise further in June, as the lift from the diesel-subsidy removal shows up in the data.
- Labour-market tightness also looks set to stoke inflation, changes to administered prices aside.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Headline inflation in Singapore rose in May, as higher COE prices pushed up transport inflation…
- …But the real story is core inflation staying at 3.1% for a third straight month, due to sticky services.
- The Taiwanese retail outlook looks weak for now, but the likelihood of stronger wage growth has risen.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Malaysia’s export growth surprised to the upside in May, thanks to a sharp rise in electronics exports…
- …This more than compensated for a fall in commodity exports and a drag from re-exports.
- Adverse base effects aside, electronics exports still has more fuel in the tank for a further recovery.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- It’s not often that a growth figure of -0.1% brings joy, but it did in the case of Singapore’s May exports...
- ...We found much to celebrate, as semiconductor exports are finally showing signs of life.
- We still expect the recovery in exports to be gradual but now see stronger signs of its likely durability.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The CBC made no change to its policy rate yesterday, but raised its RRR by 0.25pp...
- ...To stymie the flow of credit to the property sector, which has brushed off previous cooling measures.
- We expect the CBC to stay on hold, but upside risks to inflation might provoke another hike in Q3.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- We see the recent diesel-subsidy rationalisation in Malaysia as a net negative for retail sales growth...
- ...The impact on inflation is likely to be stronger, pushing the headline rate above 3% from June.
- Retail sales growth in Indonesia plunged into the red in April; this year’s Ramadan splurge was limp.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Taiwanese headline inflation was above the consensus in May, as goods disinflation U-turned...
- …Services inflation remained above 2%, on high rental prices and a still-tight labour market.
- A better growth outlook could spur the CBC to raise rates next week to combat inflation expectations.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Taiwan’s consensus-beating Q1 GDP print was driven by a strong recovery in net trade…
- …But less friendly base effects and still-soft export volumes point to growth slowing from Q2.
- All told, we have raised our 2024 GDP growth forecast to 3.7%, from 3.4%, after Q1’s hot print.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Headline inflation in Taiwan nosedived to 2.1% in March, after jumping to 3.1% in February…
- …As positive Lunar New Year demand effects reversed sharply; food base effects helped too.
- Food prices should drag more on the headline, but upward risks from energy and services have risen.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
