Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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Daily Monitor
- AI has had a net positive impact on the labor market this year; job losses in tech have been small...
- ...While surging stock prices for AI firms have boosted households’ spending and, therefore, employment.
- Layoffs, however, likely will step up next year as AI adoption becomes more widespread.
- Brazil’s IBC-BR signals a tightening-driven slowdown, hitting industry & services; agriculture eases the pain.
- Chile’s polarised first-round election results reshape political alliances, setting the stage for the run-off.
- Peru’s BCRP held rates at 4.25%, as soft inflation and resilient activity encounter a cautious global backdrop.
- GDP growth in Thailand slumped to a fresh post-Covid low of 1.2% in Q3, due mainly to destocking…
- …A few key details were otherwise solid, including goods exports and a rebound in fixed investment.
- We still see annual GDP growth weakening to 2.0% this year and 1.8% next year.
- Japan’s Q3 GDP shrank, hit by weaker net exports, a slower inventory rise and falling residential investment.
- The government aims to secure a larger supplementary budget than in 2024, leading to bond-market worries.
- The diplomatic spat with China over Taiwan could put a 0.3pp dent in GDP growth if Chinese tourism stops.
- Swiss GDP fell in Q3, by 0.5% on the quarter, more than reversing the 0.2% increase in Q2.
- We no longer forecast a recession in H2, as US trade tariffs are now being lowered to 15% from 39%.
- Risks are to the downside, but we still doubt that the SNB will ease policy in December.
- The Chancellor ditching an income-tax hike means more back-loaded and shakier fiscal consolidation.
- The government will also likely have to pare back its plans to cut energy utility prices by £200 per year.
- Back-loaded and smaller tax hikes reduce the need for MPC rate cuts in 2026 and raise gilt premia.
- Markets now see an even chance of a December rate cut, after a volley of hawkish Fed speeches...
- ...But no one has changed their view from September, and the official data will support the doves.
- Tinkering with tariffs on food would have only a very small impact on overall inflation.
- Inflation in Brazil fell markedly in October, driven by a stronger BRL and softer domestic demand.
- Services are the main growth anchor, while retail sales have weakened due to tight credit and uncertainty.
- The hawkish hold from the COPOM prepares markets for gradual 2026 rate cuts amid ongoing risks.
- China has been steadily strengthening its position in global maritime and logistics networks.
- It stands to benefit from an operational Northeast Passage, reinforcing its ambitions in global logistics.
- China plans to strengthen its aviation industry, making its own aircraft and expanding its airline market share.
- EZ industrial production had a neutral impact on EZ GDP in Q3, if you believe Eurostat’s figures.
- Construction, meanwhile, is set to have been a drag, while services pulled GDP up by 0.2%.
- Surveys point to a jump in services output ahead, but meagre moves in construction and industry.
- Q3 growth undershooting the MPC’s forecast all but seals a December rate cut…
- …But GDP will likely rebound strongly in October and November as erratic industrial drags unwind.
- Growth is far from spectacular, but it seems to be trended only a little below the UK’s potential.
- The October CPI probably will never be released, but indicators point to a mere 0.2% rise in the core.
- Pass-through from tariffs to goods prices appears to have slowed; vehicle prices still largely unaffected.
- Residual seasonality, lower health insurers’ margins and fading rent rises imply slower services inflation.
- Brazil — Rally extends as confidence builds
- Argentina — Soars on election relief, but risks ahead
- Colombia — Outlook still bright but cautious
- CPI inflation in India fell to an historic low in October, at 0.3%, as food deflation deepened…
- …Our daily food-price tracker compels us to lower our 2025 and 2026 forecasts to 2.1% and 3.3%.
- The mean-reversion up in core inflation vanishes completely if we strip out the lift from gold prices.
- ECB doves hoping for help from the euro to pull a December cut over the line will be disappointed…
- ...We expect a further softening in the euro to 1.15 by year-end, before a slight pick-up next year, to 1.17.
- Spanish and Italian surveys for early Q4 are too upbeat, in our view.
- We expect CPI inflation to decline to 3.5% in September, but only just on the rounding.
- Utility-price and airfares base effects cut inflation, but we face unusually large two-sided risks this month.
- Quarterly public rent resets, foreign-student tuition-fee hikes and food prices could surprise our forecast.
- Continuing claims are rising only gradually, but understate the recent increase in labor market slack.
- Federal staff who took deferred resignation offers are ineligible to claim; new graduates can’t claim either.
- Capex intentions have improved lately, but remain consistent with weak underlying investment.
- Flat CPI in Chile in October confirms easing inflation momentum, allowing gradual BCCh rate cuts ahead.
- Robust trade and capex offset softer consumption, maintaining Chile’s balanced growth in Q4 and Q1.
- Fiscal fragility remains a key medium-term issue, demanding renewed consolidation efforts.
- Indonesian retail sales remain soft, particularly discretionary items, with BI cuts yet to be felt at all…
- …Confidence revived suddenly in October on job hopes, but faster income growth remains far away.
- Numerous ‘sales’ days in Malaysia boosted retail in September; e-commerce is altering the landscape.
- The ECB is lining up a change in key personnel, but the key transitions are back-loaded to 2027.
- Isabel Schnabel’s departure will almost certainly result in a dovish tilt to the ECB’s communication.
- Investor sentiment has fallen marginally in November but still signals a solid composite PMI.
