Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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Daily Monitor
- BI surprised again, but with a rate hold this time; we’re sticking to our end-2025 call of 4.50%.
- Malaysian inflation increased again, the third rise since the expansion of the sales and services tax.
- India’s full core IP data for Q3 show a solid bounce, but the GDP signal remains subdued.
- Japan’s new PM Takaichi will put together a stimulus package to alleviate households’ cost-of-living crisis.
- September exports trended higher on improving intra-regional demand, driven by chip and car shipments.
- The BoJ will likely delay its rate hike to December now that Ms. Takaichi has been appointed as the new PM.
- The EZ general government budget deficit held steady in Q2, as revenue and expenditure both rose.
- It is likely growing now, as Germany has started to spend more earnestly, and will widen again next year.
- The EZ deficit will likely rise to 3.5% of GDP this year, 3.8% in 2026 and 4.0% in 2027, from 3.1% in 2024.
- Plenty of small caveats suggest we treat the downside inflation surprise with a little caution…
- ...But the dovish news was too widespread to ignore, so we cut our forecasts and see a December rate cut.
- We still think the MPC will skip a November cut, with inflation nearly double its target.
- The regional Fed and PMI surveys are no better at forecasting GDP than just extrapolating the trend.
- Durables goods spending by consumers is reasonably well signalled by the UoM confidence survey.
- Airline passenger and hotel occupancy data are useful for forecasting that segment of spending only.
- President Petro’s confrontation with Washington risks undoing decades of cooperation and stability.
- Economic activity is weakening as the construction and service sectors lose growth momentum.
- Fiscal pressures, policy uncertainty and political noise threaten the fragile recovery.
- Germany’s 2026 draft budget promises borrowing of close to 5% of GDP next year; can we believe it?
- A turn in the investment cycle is the key prerequisite for a pick-up in German growth next year.
- Risks are tilted to the downside for our upbeat 2026 forecasts, but leading indicators agree with us.
- The ONS revised down borrowing by £4.2B, as an error in the collection of VAT receipts was corrected…
- …But borrowing is still £7.2B higher than the OBR forecast for the first half of fiscal year 2025/26.
We expect £33B of tax hikes and spending cuts in the Budget, back-loaded to 2029/30.
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- The weakening dollar means that DXY is no longer overshooting its long-term link with Treasury yields.
- ...But further fiscal easing and politicization of the Fed are key downside risks for the dollar in 2026.
- Housing inflation likely has further to fall, given the renewed drop in rental growth in recent months.
- Argentina has secured US support as elections near, but political uncertainty is keeping markets on edge.
- The swap deal buys time, yet weak demand and fiscal pressures are weighing on the outlook.
- Peru’s economy is maintaining solid growth despite political instability and pre-election uncertainty.
- China’s quarterly GDP grew a touch faster in Q3, but the headline masks weakness in domestic demand.
- The divergence holds between stronger exports and production, and weaker retail sales and investment.
- China’s Q4 growth hinges on successfully reining in deflation and unclogging local financing bottlenecks.
- GDP in Germany and Italy likely improved relative to Q2, but growth in France and Spain probably fell.
- EZ GDP growth is likely to have held steady, at just 0.1% quarter-to-quarter.
- Q4 is set to be a touch better, as the drag from net trade fades, thanks to falling imports.
- We have thrown in the towel and include in our forecasts a cut to energy bills in November’s Budget.
- All told, we lower our inflation forecast by 16bp for one year from April 2026.
- We struggle to see the Chancellor freezing fuel duty completely though, given the £5B-per-year cost.
- Homebase data point to steady employment growth, and WARN data indicate layoffs remain low...
- ...But Indeed job postings are falling at a faster pace, and Empire State hiring intentions have weakened.
- High mortgage rates and consumers’ low confidence imply higher homebuilder optimism won’t last.
- August’s modest IBC-BR rebound masks persistent weakness across Brazil’s key sectors.
- Retail and services show a tentative stabilisation, but tight credit and high rates continue to hurt demand.
- Fiscal transfers offer temporary support, but restrictive policy will keep growth subdued in 2026.
- The ballooning in India’s trade gap in September was due to gold imports, but beware US exports.
- Singapore’s Q3 GDP print surprised to the upside, at 2.9%, but the headline slowdown is far from over…
- …The MAS expects this to be the case too, implying the bar to fresh policy easing is still high.
- GDP rose by 0.1% month-to-month in August, after falling by a downwardly revised 0.1% in July.
- GDP growth will match our call of 0.2% quarter-to-quarter in Q3, below the MPC’s forecast, 0.4%.
- Underlying GDP growth has slowed due to Budget uncertainty but is still close to potential.
- Trade figures indicate a significant dampening effect on EZ goods trade from US trade tariff hikes.
- The data show few signs of trade diversion and/or re-routing from China, but some price cuts.
- The EZ trade surplus will widen further to year-end, and the drag from goods trade on GDP will fade.
- Spain’s budget negotiations are non-existent; another rollover of the 2023 budget seems likely...
- ...Still, its deficit will shrink out to 2027, and in 2025 be inside the EU’s 3% limit.
- ECB doves point to downside inflation risks, but we still think the Q4 HICP data will move against them.
- The next forecast round from the OBR will likely show the Chancellor’s headroom has become a £25B hole.
- We think the government will target headroom of £20B, requiring £35B in tax hikes and spending cuts.
- Stealth, sin, property and pensions taxes will fill most of the black hole in our view.
