Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Daily Monitor
- The COPOM held the Selic at 15%, reaffirming its hawkish stance amid slow disinflation and global risk.
- Inflation expectations continue to ease, but the Board stressed patience and vigilance before any rate cut…
- …That first cut is now likely delayed to January as the BCB prioritises credibility and inflation convergence.
- Vietnamese exports disappointed in October, but the payback from US front-loading isn’t one-way.
- BNM held rates as the economy remains resilient to US tariffs; the new trade deal will enhance this.
- Taiwan’s inflation ticked up in October, probably lifted by mid-autumn festival spending.
- EZ retail spending growth slowed to 0.2% quarter-on-quarter in Q3, from 0.8% in Q2….
- ....but overall consumption growth likely was decent, and we look for more of the same in Q4.
- Rebound in German manufacturing was tepid in September, but output likely rose again in October.
- The MPC’s new guidance leaves us comfortable reiterating our call for a December rate cut.
- Rate-setters also point to a slower pace of cuts next year as Bank Rate approaches neutral…
- ...And room for only one more cut after December, unless GDP growth turns out weaker-than-expected.
- Goods exports are struggling, as foreign firms run down the inventory they amassed earlier this year.
- Services exports are flailing too, despite strong demand for software; US politics has put off tourists.
- Data centre construction is surging, but it is too small to provide much a of boost to the sector at large.
- Brazilian Real — Slips modestly on global headwinds
- Colombian Peso — Choppy gains as carry holds
- Chilean Peso — Political clarity and BCCh caution
- GDP growth in Indonesia slipped minimally in Q3, to 5.0% from 5.1% in Q2, in line with our forecast…
- …The main cause of the dip was softer private local demand; the Q2 pop in equipment capex is fading.
- Private consumption is facing more headwinds, with real wage growth falling back into the red.
- China’s household saving rate has fallen, implying greater readiness for consumption spending...
- ...But not by enough to make up for the slump in residential sales since 2019; no wonder demand is soft.
- The October RatingDog services PMI reports efficiency gains; good for profits, but bad for jobs short term.
- German factory orders rebounded in September, but the underlying trend in growth is still flat.
- Sales data signal downside risk to German industrial output, but they failed to capture the August plunge.
- Manufacturing in France is soaring, helped by aerospace, but surveys warn of a fall in early Q4.
- We expect Budget tax hikes and spending cuts of £40B to deliver double the previous fiscal headroom.
- The devil is in the detail for the MPC, however, which likely needs to wait and see the Budget before acting.
- Firms are brushing off tax speculation; the PMI signals growth close to potential and stabilising jobs.
- The first ADP payroll estimate is among the worst indicators of both initial and benchmarked payroll data.
- The final data line up better, but only because ADP re-weights its data after benchmarking by the BLS.
- The Treasury’s method for inferring the CPI without BLS data implies a 0.36% monthly rise in October.
- Brazil’s industrial output shrank again, highlighting persistent weakness across key sectors.
- The labour market—the economy’s last major support pillar—is softening amid tariff shocks and high rates.
- We expect the COPOM to hold rates at 15% today, but easing signals are likely as disinflation gains traction.
- We’re changing our inflation forecast methodology to a pure bottom-up model, based on the four majors.
- We will now be forecasting 38 individual HICP and CPI components every month.
- Our forecast for core inflation to settle above 2% is underpinned by dovish monthly pricing trends.
- We expect ‘final’ payrolls to be unchanged month-to-month in October.
- The bulk of evidence points to employment growth stabilising as the hit from payroll-tax hikes fades.
- Private pay growth should slow further, encouraging MPC doves that they can cut rates in December.
- The manufacturing sector has seen little benefit from the new tariffs so far this year…
- …Recent gains in output have been limited to a few industries that dance to the beat of their own drum…
- …Industrial policies have a role to play in reviving USmanufacturing, but tariffs are a blunt tool.
- High inflation and wage pressures reinforce BanRep’s cautious policy normalisation stance.
- The fiscal strategy has shifted towards revenue measures, as structural rigidities limit spending cuts.
- Chile’s broad-based rebound in September confirms domestic demand strength and easing mining issues.
- India’s real GST collection growth in October was flat, at best, showing no post-cut pop in spending.
- Recovering Chinese demand is helping to keep Indonesian export growth lofty, but big risks linger.
- We have raised our 2026 inflation forecast for Indonesia to 3.1%, in light of the firm October reads.
- The Xi–Trump meeting in Korea marked a watershed shift in negotiating power between the US and China.
- The RatingDog manufacturing PMI eased, similar to the NBS, on weak demand both at home and abroad.
- China is betting on powering growth by both expanding consumption and maintaining its export prowess.
- Swiss inflation eased to within touching distance of 0%, the bottom of the SNB’s inflation target range.
- We look for further declines, in contrast to the SNB’s forecast for inflation to rise.
- Still, the SNB will hold off from further easing this year and probably also next year.
- The insolvency rate has plateaued above pre-pandemic levels but is unthreatening.
- We see little indication that higher insolvency rates will lead to a sharp rise in unemployment.
- Insolvency numbers will fall as businesses adjust to higher interest rates and GDP growth holds firm.
