Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Daily Monitor Duncan Wrigley
- Japan’s sluggish September flash manufacturing PMI remained below 50 for a third straight month.
- The September flash services activity index, by contrast, remains strong.
- The rise in the services output price index suggests continued services inflation.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- PBoC Governor Pan yesterday announced a set of broad monetary policy support measures.
- These are likely to give a short-term lift to markets, and growth, especially if fiscal policy is stepped up.
- But they don’t address the underlying structural issues, meaning growth is likely to slow again.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s August developer-funding figures improved only because of policy support, namely loans.
- Home sales remained weak in August, as the impact of the May policy support is fading.
- A long, grinding recovery is in prospect, with no sign of a change in approach from drip-fed support.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s August headline credit growth was pretty steady, but due only to government-bond issuance...
- ...Private credit demand looks weak, and on-balance-sheet bill financing was suspiciously large.
- The PBoC is preparing “incremental policy” measures, likely an RRR cut and structural tools.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s retail sales growth faded in August, as people held back on big-ticket purchases.
- Bad weather delayed construction, despite a large funding boost from government-bond issuance.
- Policymakers are unlikely to hit the policy panic button, even if it risks missing 2024’s growth target.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s early reporting data point to softening domestic demand in August.
- Officials are likely to blame poor activity readings on bad weather, but that’s only part of the story.
- Structural adjustment is dragging on demand, with piecemeal policy support only a partial offset.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s disappointing August core consumer inflation data point to persistently weak demand.
- Headline CPI was boosted by a short-term spike in fresh vegetable prices.
- A sharper drop in producer prices reflects excess industrial supply and the laggardly stimulus impact.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Japan’s nominal wage growth held up well in July, thanks to both bonuses and regular pay rises.
- Headline wage growth is likely to fade in the coming months, but that won’t shift the BoJ.
- The timing of the BoJ’s next rate hike is dependent on its perception of market risk.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s August services PMIs indicate steady demand growth, but activity was hit by bad weather.
- Services firms cut prices, in response to fierce competition, despite rising costs.
- Consumers remain much more keen to spend on tourism rather than big-ticket items or housing.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Japan’s June wage rise beat market expectations, in both nominal and real terms.
- The rise was largely driven by a spike in special cash payments, rather than regular pay.
- Governor Ueda will, however, cite the wage uptick as justifying last week’s BoJ’s policy rate hike.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- The BoJ yesterday announced a policy rate hike, despite cutting its inflation forecast for this year.
- Governor Ueda said the Bank will continue to raise rates if growth and inflation match its expectations.
- The real motivation for the rate increase is probably to minimise the risk of a steep JPY reversal.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- The PBoC yesterday made an unscheduled 20bp MLF rate cut, following earlier policy rate cuts.
- Policymakers are clearly worried about the H2 outlook, after Q2 GDP growth halved versus Q1.
- Policymakers are likely to stress fiscal support to stabilise growth, but no mega-stimulus.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Japan’s July flash manufacturing index sank to the lowest in four months, hit by the auto safety scandal.
- Higher import prices, because of the weak JPY, are driving up business costs.
- The service sector returned to growth, enjoying a likely brief spending boost from a one-off tax rebate.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- The PBoC yesterday took markets by surprise with a 10bp policy rate cut to support the economy.
- Policymakers are prioritising growth support after the disappointing Q2 GDP outturn.
- President Xi’s comments confirm the ‘advanced manufacturing first’ reform strategy.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s residential sales are staging a modest and narrowly based revival, thanks to policy easing.
- But prices are still mostly falling, and the recovery is fragile given high housing inventories.
- A drawn-out and bumpy rebound is still the most likely scenario, gradually limiting the drag on growth.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s soft June credit data indicated weak demand for funding, except government bonds.
- Higher net long-term household loans probably reflect a revival in pre-owned property sales.
- Money growth continued to be buffeted by fund flows from corporate bank deposits into bond funds.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s Q2 sequential GDP growth was the lowest in two years, hit by fading domestic demand.
- Industrial output growth has been relatively steady, supported by export demand.
- A fiscal policy support top-up is increasingly likely, with monetary easing playing second fiddle.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s exports continued to recover in June, while imports fell, leading to a record trade surplus.
- Shipments to ASEAN were strong, and to the US also picked up; falling imports signal weak demand.
- Near-term exports will be helped by a favorable base; EV export uncertainty due to tariffs will linger.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- The BoK held fast on the policy rate yesterday but shifted the focus to rate cuts.
- Disinflation should continue in H2, despite the risks from higher import costs and the weak KRW.
- Chip exports will likely drive GDP growth enough for the BoK to delay its first rate cut until October.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s consumer inflation remained soft in June, as the 618 e-commerce event proved a damp squib.
- Pork inflation is reviving, though most other food prices are still falling.
- Headline producer price deflation eased in June, but largely thanks to international commodity inflation.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
