Pantheon Publications
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Daily Monitor Duncan Wrigley
- Policymakers won’t be flustered by the Q4 GDP growth slippage, hit by flagging investment and consumption.
- They can bank on solid export growth, thanks to burgeoning competitiveness in higher-tech products.
- Quasi-fiscal policy support backed by the policy banks is still coming through; more property support is likely.
- The PBoC yesterday signalled room for policy rate and RRR cuts, while easing via structural policy tools.
- We expect only a token 10bp policy rate cut this year, likely timed to counter shocks, such as to trade policy.
- Private-sector credit growth remained sluggish in December; quasi-fiscal policy is still gaining traction.
- China’s $11.5B rise in foreign reserves in December was down entirely to currency-valuation effects.
- The large trade surplus has been resilient, despite tariff frictions, due to exports expanding into new markets.
- Our estimated residual net capital outflow probably points to retained export earnings held offshore.
- China’s residential sales are still slumping in December, with weakness across all city tiers.
- Tier-one city pre-owned housing prices sank, amid reports of a surge in listings of low- to mid-end units.
- Policymakers seem resigned to a protracted recovery, with no new ideas at the CEWC.
- The BoJ’s regional branches report steady wage-hike expectations for 2026, except at small firms.
- Japan’s December flash PMIs see manufacturing activity reviving but cost pressures mounting.
- The Q4 Tankan finds severe labour shortages, but these have yet to spur an uptick in broad wage growth.
- China’s November activity data point to slowing goods consumption but steady services spending.
- Still-falling fixed asset investment has yet to benefit from the quasi-fiscal-stimulus funding support.
- Policymakers will proceed cautiously on tackling the reasons for the weak demand, amid bright exports.
