Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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Duncan Wrigley
Tokyo headline inflation slows as energy subsidies restart; BoJ to stick to policy normalisation path
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Tokyo headline inflation slows as energy subsidies restart; BoJ to stick to policy normalisation path
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s Politburo meeting on Friday signalled a ‘steady as she goes’ approach to economic policy.
- Tokyo consumer inflation fell in February, as energy subsidies brought down energy inflation.
- Fresh food inflation cooled due to seasonal factors, but overall food inflation is likely to pick up in H1.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s technology & manufacturing policy will take centre stage at the Two Sessions next week.
- Targeted consumption support will be ramped up; no big handout, but fiscal transfers should be supportive.
- The bank recapitalisation provides ammunition for mid-year stimulus, to mitigate the trade war impact.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Governor Rhee signals one or two additional rate cuts this year after BoK's easing move today
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Governor Rhee signals one or two additional rate cuts this year after BoK's easing move today
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- The Bank of Korea cut rates yesterday, as widely expected in the market, given currency stability.
- Anther two cuts are likely, though we see a rising case for three, given domestic political and trade-war risks.
- China’s bond yield uptick likely reflects improved sentiment, but that rests on fragile ground.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Korean exports slowed in February, except to Asia ex-China manufacturing hubs.
- Auto exports benefited from front-loading ahead of a likely US auto tariff hike; chip exports should rebound.
- President Trump’s investment restriction memo is a bargaining chip ahead of trade talks with China.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Japan’s headline consumer inflation gains steam on food inflation
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Japan’s flash manufacturing PMI shows activity spluttering
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Korean working-day exports fell due to holiday effects; surging auto exports points to front-loading
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Japan's consumer inflation boosted by food inflation
Korea's WDA-exports drop during the holiday, despite auto shipment surge
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- - CHINA’S CONSUMER SPENDING WILL SLOW POST-HOLIDAY
- - JAPAN’S DOMESTIC DEMAND STILL TRAILING NET EXPORTS
- - BOK LIKELY TO RESUME CUTS, DESPITE POLITICAL MESS
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Japan’s consumer inflation jumped in January, largely on the back of rice and vegetable inflation.
- Core inflation is also creeping up, reinforcing the BoJ’s de termination to keep normalising policy this year.
- But Governor Ueda on Friday signalled a readiness to intervene to prevent yields from getting too far ahead.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
China's lending benchmark rates left unchanged
Duncan WrigleyChina+
PBoC waiting for the trade war to heat up
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- President Xi’s meeting with tech executives on Monday was important for symbolism and policy.
- But it won’t magically solve the macro challenges of sagging profits and weak demand.
- Rapid AI adoption is disruptive for hiring demand; skills mismatches will weigh on the labour market.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
China's residential price decline steady in holiday season
Japan's real export growth less impressive than headline
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s local governments have begun using special- bond funds to stabilise the residential market.
- But in some cases it’s more a matter of moving money from the left pocket to the right pocket.
- More property-policy tweaking is likely during next month’s Two Sessions; gradual progress in prospect.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Overall credit growth still relatively sturdy, thanks to robust government bond issuance
Duncan WrigleyChina+
