Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Duncan Wrigley
China's official GDP hits 2024 target thanks to Q4 stimulus sugar rush, but domestic demand is still lagging output growth
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- The PBoC is stressing USDCNY support and holding rates steady, but we see this as tactical.
- Domestic demand is still lagging behind output growth, despite the Q4 GDP print.
- Currency depreciation will be part of the toolkit in response to likely aggressive US trade action.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s Q4 GDP growth surpassed market expectations, thanks to stimulus policies.
- But domestic demand remains weak overall, especially compared to vigorous output growth.
- China will need to step up fiscal policy support to nurse its recovery, as it faces export growth risks.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Credit growth propped up by government bond issuance, but sagging long-term corporate loans bode ill for investment
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s total social financing ticked up in December thanks to greater government-bond issuance.
- Stronger M2 growth reflects the policy lift to asset-market activity and consumer goods sales.
- But the shocking long-term corporate loan figure casts doubt on funding needs for investment.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Governor Ueda is keeping the BoJ's options open, monitoring Mr. Trump's return to power, and wages.
- Japan's November wage growth was steady, but most small firms aren't planning big wage hikes.
- Manufacturers are surprisingly optimistic, despite the darkening risks of trade protectionism.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Both of China's December services PMIs point to higher activity, thanks to short-term stimulus.
- But sentiment has plunged since the US election, with firms worried about protectionism.
- More targeted stimulus is coming, including reported public-sector wage hikes.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
China's Caixin services PMI rises at year-end, despite sagging export orders and sentiment
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- The December PMI reports Korean manufacturers at their most pessimistic since June 2020.
- Export growth showed a markedly slower trend in Q4, with broad weakness across regional markets.
- The government forecasts export growth to plunge to 1.5% in 2025, from 8.2% in 2024.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
China's Caixin PMI shows slowing growth
Korean manufacturing sentiment takes a nosedive
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Chinese manufacturing growth ebbs at year-end
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s December official PMIs were a mixed bag with the manufacturing gauge losing ground slightly.
- The broad-based rise in the services PMI is encouraging; but it's only one-month's reading.
- The uptick in the construction PMI was likely mainly due to short-term factors.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Japan's nominal wage growth is steady
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Recent USDCNY weakness is largely a reflection of broad dollar strength…
- …But also falling Chinese government-bond yields, after an effective deposit-rate cut.
- November’s Caixin services PMI points to resilient activity but deflation pressure.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Japan’s real household spending fell further in October as people tighten their purse strings.
- Consumer sentiment dipped slightly in November, held back by willingness to buy durable goods.
- The BoJ will probably hike rates this month, as long as market risks from Korean politics are contained.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Caixin services PMI slows a notch
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Both of China’s manufacturing PMIs in November point to a near-term uptick in activity.
- But their price indices are a mixed bag, and China probably hasn’t escaped deflation just yet.
- The construction PMI disappointed, due to the continued drag from housing construction.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
PMI buoyed by rising near-term demand; but under the shadow of protectionism risks in 2025
Duncan WrigleyChina+
China Caixin and Korean manufacturing PMIs buoyed by rising near-term demand; but under the shadow of protectionism risks in 2025
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Tokyo headline inflation surges, but mainly thanks to higher energy and fresh food inflation
Duncan WrigleyChina+
