Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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Duncan Wrigley
Japan's overall wage growth still sluggish
Improvement narrowly confined to full-time manufacturing workers
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Foreign reserves hit by currency valuation effects and equity market outflows
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- The PBoC announced last week it will borrow government bonds from primary dealers…
- ...The Bank is likely to short bonds to drive up 10-year yields to 2.5% in H2, supporting CNY.
- The Caixin service s PMI dipped in June, as tourism activity cooled during the off-season.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Japan’s Q2 Tankan reveals buoyant manufacturer profitability, despite testing market conditions...
- ...Largely explained by the weak JPY, spurring a surge in export value, while real exports are falling.
- Japan’s H2 outlook is clouded by the dip in the Juneservices PMI and the auto safety fiasco.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
China's Caixin services activity index slows during tourism off-season
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Korea’s June headline manufacturing PMI rose to its highest level since April 2022.
- Exports continued to power ahead in June, thanks to semiconductor exports for AI applications.
- Rising import costs boost our conviction that the BoK will delay its first policy rate cut until Q4.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- The Caixin manufacturing PMI continued to outpace the official index in June…
- …reflecting better performance among light industries and high-tech than heavy industries.
- The construction index was hit by extreme weather conditions, masking any stimulus impact.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Mixed picture for China's manufacturers
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Mixed picture for China's manufacturers
Japanese and Korean firms hit by mounting import costs
Korean exports lifted by AI-chip demand
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Tokyo consumer inflation nudged up by the removal of energy subsidies
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Tokyo consumer inflation rose a touch in June, due to the removal of energy subsidies…
- …But Japan plans to reinstate the subsidies, meaning little risk of a near-term inflation surge.
- Japan’s encouraging May export growth figure reflects price rises, while real exports fell slightly.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Industrial profits hit by rising costs and dull demand
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Xinhua yesterday announced the reform-focused Third Plenum will be held on July 15-to-17.
- We expect pro-business and-innovation reforms but no fundamental shift to consumption-based growth.
- Industrial profits hit a soft patch in May, hurt by rising operating costs, despite improved revenue growth.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Korea’s 20-day exports continued their uptrend in June, thanks to base effects and chip demand.
- Exports to the US are soaring, while shipments to China rose modestly; but the EU market is still weak.
- Export value growth is outpacing volume growth, thanks to rising semiconductor prices.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Korean exports power ahead thanks to AI-chip shipments
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Korean WDA 20-day exports forge ahead, thanks to AI chip boom
Japan's consumer inflation ticks up, despite softening flash PMI readings
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Japan’s consumer inflation rose in May, due to the phasing out of household energy subsidies.
- Cost-push inflation is set to return in H2, reflecting the lagged impact of the weak JPY.
- But the June flash PMIs point to flagging domestic economic activity; what a headache for the BoJ!
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- PBoC Governor Pan Gongsheng on Wednesday hinted the Bank is likely to start bond trading.
- The definition of M1 will probably be broadened, after the dramatic plunge in May.
- The Bank expects credit growth to remain slow, given China’s changing economic growth model.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Japan's exports buoyed by US and Chinese demand, despite falling shipments to the EU
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s credit grew in May for the first time in six months, as government-bond issuance surged.
- Home-loan demand was still feeble, though the data are clouded by existing-mortgage repayments
- May M1 posted a record dive, as businesses shifted money after, in effect, a regulatory deposit-rate cut.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
