Pantheon Publications

6 August 2024 China+ Monitor Korea WDA export growth eased on deeper slowdown in US car exports

• Weak Korean export rebound was disappointing; working-day adjusted growth actually eased sharply.
• Deeper dive in US shipment growth was the driver, coupled with a double-digit plunge in car exports.
• Firming KRW and easing cost burden give BoK more room to cut rates, but unlikely to hasten the timeline. 

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

2 August 2024 China+ Monitor Gloomy China PMIs likely to prompt further targeted stimulus measures.

• Both July manufacturing PMIs indicate declining activity, especially the dip in the Caixin PMI.
• Extreme weather is only partly to blame; domestic demand is weak, as the growth model is revamped.
• China will keep adjusting incremental stimulus until growth is back on track at the “about 5%” target.

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

31 July 2024 China+ Monitor China's industrial profits recovery is stalling; more stimulus is needed

• China’s industrial profit growth edged up in June, thanks to better upstream sector profits.
• But two-thirds of industries saw profit growth ease, echoing the weak domestic demand in Q2 GDP.
• More stimulus will be deployed to support growth and put profit’s recovery on a more sustainable path.

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 29 July 2024: Slight uptick in China's industrial profits driven by better performing upstream sectors

In one line: Slight uptick in China's industrial profits driven by better performing upstream sectors

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 22 July 2024: China lowered interest rates; Korea trade propelled by AI chips demand

China lowered interest rates and revealed plans to enhance government finances; Korea early trade data propelled by AI-chips demand

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

China+ Datanote: Exports, Korea, July

In one line: Strong AI-driven exports propel Korea’s early July trade figures 

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

China+ Datanote: Loan Prime Rates, China, July

In one line: China’s loan prime rates and short-term rates were unexpectedly lowered in July; plans revealed to revive local government finances

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 12 July 2024

In one line: China saw record trade surplus since 1992 on deteriorating import demand and steady export recovery

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

China+Datanote: Exports, China, June

In one line: China saw record trade surplus since 1992 on deteriorating import demand and steady export recovery

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

27 June 2024 China+ Monitor China's property slump continues despite government efforts

• China’s property market is still in the doldrums; prices and transactions are falling at pace.
• The secondary market is suffering bigger price falls due to higher inventory levels and consumer choice.
• The impact of re-lending facilities will not be felt immediately due to implementation problems.

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

June 2024 - China+ Chartbook

• - CHINA’S ACTIVITY TICKING OVER ENOUGH
• - BOJ SIGNALS BOND BUYING TO SLOW
• - STRONG EXPORTS ALLOW BOK’S MORE HAWKISH STANCE

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

China+Datanote: LPR, China, June

In one line: China’s loan prime rates left unchanged in June amid record low NIMs for banks

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 20 June 2024: China's loan prime rates left unchanged in June amid record low NIMs for banks

China’s loan prime rates left unchanged in June amid record low NIMs for banks

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

China+Datanote: BoJ Decision, Japan, June

In one line: The BoJ will reveal detailed plans for bond tapering in July’s meeting.

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 14 June 2024: The BoJ will reveal detailed plans for bond tapering in July's meeting.

In one line: The BoJ will reveal detailed plans for bond tapering in July’s meeting.

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

China+Datanote: PPI, China, May

In one line: Producer price reflation hastens in May

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 13 June 2024: China's CPI print points to sluggish domestic demand

In one line: China's CPI print points to sluggish domestic demand; Producer price reflation hastens in May

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

13 June 2024 China+ Monitor China's consumer inflation steadies, pointing to weak domestic demand

• China’s CPI inflation was unchanged, as slowing core inflation was offset by firming food prices.
• Producer deflation eased sharply on faster upstream reflation, which bodes well for industrial profitability.
• More stimulus will be needed to kick-start domestic demand; we reiterate our call for an MLF cut in June.

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

China+Datanote: FX Reserves, China, May

In one line: China’s FX reserves rebounded in May, driven mainly by valuation effect of exchange rate

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

China+ Datanote: Labour Earnings, Japan, April

• In one line: Japan's regular pay growth quickened to 30-year high

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+