- Core retail sales usually struggle after hurricanes, and warm weather likely weighed on clothing sales.
- Carryover from Q3 will support growth in consumption in Q4, but expect slower gains from here.
- Credit conditions remain very restrictive, as banks have continued to tighten lending standards.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- US - Mr. Trump’s win likely slams the door on rapid Fed normalization next year
- EUROZONE - Early elections in Germany will pave the way for looser fiscal policy
- UK - A cautious MPC will cut rates once per quarter at most
- CHINA+ - China refrains from knee-jerk response to Mr. Trump’s election win
- EM ASIA - GDP growth in Indonesia slips below 5% in Q3, as we predicted
- LATAM - LatAm central banks to adopt a hawkish stance post-US election
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- Indonesian retail sales growth is faltering—again—amid low real wage growth and fading confidence…
- …Sentiment has yet to see any rise despite falling inflation and the promise of a new government.
- Job expectations are still deteriorating the most; soft consumption looks set to continue in 2025.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- German inflation rebounded in October, lifted by rising energy, food and services inflation.
- Energy inflation will climb further in November and December; spot electricity prices are soaring.
- Core HICP inflation should fall fractionally in November, but the national rate should be stable.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- A gently easing labour market will allow the MPC to keep cutting rates only gradually.
- The unemployment rate surged in September, but that was data noise; the trend remains a slow rise.
- Wage growth is still proving stubborn, as the labour market remains tight, even if it has loosened.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- China credit demand growth hit a record low in October, with TSF growth at its weakest since 2003.
- Loans to the real economy fell further due to slowing corporate and household borrowing.
- The economic support measures so far have given China’s credit demand limited uplift.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- Germany could head to the polls as soon as January, if enough paper can be found to print the ballots.
- Polls point to a grand coalition between the SPD and CDU/CSU as the most likely outcome.
- We still think new elections in Germany will pave the way for a more pro-growth fiscal policy.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- US tariffs of 10% on imports would have a trivial direct impact on UK GDP.
- But the UK would be highly exposed to global trade disruption after likely retaliation against US tariffs.
- Tariffs would be stagflationary for the UK, causing the MPC to cut interest rates more slowly.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
Consumers in high spirits pre-election.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- In one line: Headline inflation rebounds as electricity tariffs rise.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: Headline inflation rebounds as electricity tariffs rise.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Rising inflation pressures on the back of bad weather conditions.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: Rising inflation pressures on the back of bad weather conditions.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: A modest cut; approaching the end of the easing cycle.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: A modest cut; approaching the end of the easing cycle.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: The REC weakens slightly in October, but the MPC downplay the survey now due to its poor correlation with official data.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
China's RMB10T debt-swap plan isn't the last word in addressing its malaise
Duncan WrigleyChina+
In one line: Still in recession; Q3 saw the sixth straight quarterly fall in output.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- In one line: Stubborn wages and prices keep the MPC cautious
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
