Pantheon Publications
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Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)
THE ECONOMY WILL REMAIN STUCK IN A LOW GEAR IN H2
- UNEMPLOYMENT WILL WORRY THE FED MORE THAN INFLATION
The outlook for homebuilding remains grim.
- Foreigners are not “paying” for President Trump’s tariffs: pre-tariff import prices are holding steady…
- …That leaves US consumers and businesses shouldering nearly all of the additional costs.
- Homebase data point to a rebound in private payrolls, but likely give a misleading signal.
Collapsing response rate casts doubt, but the backdrop looks weak.
- We look for a 1% gain in headline retail sales in July, mostly due to a rebound in auto sales…
- …But underlying sales likely were relatively weak again, with control sales volumes broadly stagnating.
- We think consumers' spending will grow by ½-to-1% in Q3, in keeping with the subdued pace in H1.
Flattered by GDP distortions in Q2, but the underlying trend still is solid.
Probably a false alarm on services inflation.
A further climb in goods inflation is still in the pipeline.
- In one line: A further climb in goods inflation is still in the pipeline.
- In one line: Revisions reveal a sharp slowdown; September easing incoming.
Core inflation set to climb further as spending barely grows.
Underlying growth has slowed sharply since late 2024.
- In one line: Underlying growth has slowed sharply since late 2024.
Underlying investment looks stagnant at best.
Bounce in the PMI looks too good to be true.
Auto shutdowns distort the picture; labor market likely still loosening.
Weak demand and recovering supply are putting pressure on prices.
- Recent completed and rumoured trade “deals” mean August 1 looks like less of a tariff cliff-edge.
- But these agreements imply little change in the overall average effective tariff rate on US imports.
- The weakness in new home sales in June probably is here to stay, weighing further on housing starts.
