Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Daily Monitor Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)
- The July PMI is consistent with Q3 GDP growth of 0.2% quarter-to-quarter.
- But surging new orders and future business expectations suggest the PMI will leap in August.
- Slowing output prices will comfort the MPC, but stronger hiring could keep wage growth elevated.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The wide current account deficit reflects elevated fuel import costs and weak investment income.
- Neither factor is likely to improve in the near future, so we expect the large current account deficit to persist.
- That will hold sterling back, as will the weakest international investment position in 37 years.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Chancellor Rachel Reeves hinted she would accept 5.5% public-sector pay rises this year.
- We also expect Ms. Reeves to raise government borrowing by £22B in 2029/30 in the Autumn Statement.
- Higher public-sector pay rises than expected will have only a minor effect on the interest rate outlook.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The headlines from yesterday’s labour-market data will be music to the MPC’s ears…
- …They show slowing private-sector pay growth and signs of a continued gradual rise in unemployment.
- But the MPC must be careful; job growth is bouncing back, and AWE will likely be revised up.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- June’s services inflation strength supports our call for the MPC to wait until September to cut rates.
- It’s a close call, as an erratic surge in hotel prices linked to music events boosted services inflation.
- We expect headline CPI inflation to rise to 2.2% in July and 2.9% in November.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- BoE Chief Economist Huw Pill’s speech last week signals the first rate cut is mostly data-independent.
- The hawks are shifting to argue for only gradual cuts, so back-to-back reductions will face stiff resistance.
- Mr. Pill suggested interest rates may need to remain persistently restrictive to keep inflation at the target.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- CPI inflation likely fell to 1.9% in June, from 2.0% in May, 0.1pp below the MPC’s forecast.
- We expect June CPI services inflation to exceed the MPC’s forecast by the same 42bp margin as in May.
- Rate-setters whose June vote was a close call will be happy with the same services inflation miss as May.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We expect PAYE employment to rise 5K in June, while the unemployment rate should hold at 4.4%.
- We think private-sector AWE will rise 0.6% month-to-month in May, as April’s NLW hike feeds through.
- Pay beating the MPC’s 0.2% forecast would support our call that it will wait until September to cut rates.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We expect GDP to rise 0.2% month-to-month in May, as retail sales and manufacturing rebound.
- GDP is on track to increase 0.5% quarter-to-quarter in Q2, matching the MPC’s forecast.
- We expect growth to slow to 0.3% quarter-to-quarter in H2 2024, still stronger than the MPC expects.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The PMI fell in June, but we think this will not become a trend...
- …as businesses will look to ramp up activity if the election delivers a clear result.
- Output prices picked up in June, squeezing the MPC’s room for manoeuvre at its August meeting.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We expect CPI inflation to fall to 1.9% in June, from 2.0% in May, 0.1pp below the MPC’s forecast.
- Inflation will be lowered by falling food inflation and a slight easing in the pace of services price gains.
- We expect services inflation to exceed the MPC’s forecast by the same margin as in May.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Money and credit data for May suggest consumption and investment will drive brisk GDP growth.
- Consumers’ reducing the amount they save to pre-Covid norms suggests they are willing to spend.
- Firms raised £10.4B of external finance in the past three months, above the £7.2B 2015-to-19 average.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- All available polls suggest the Labour Party will win a large majority in the July 4 general election.
- Labour is proposing a credible strategy for boosting growth, but it will take time to bear fruit.
- Meanwhile, a slow-growing economy and implausible fiscal forecasts mean more borrowing and taxes.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Official labour-market data remain unreliable despite statisticians’ attempts to boost the sample size.
- Surveys suggest labour-market loosening has slowed as GDP growth has rebounded.
- The decline in immigration removes one factor that has helped ease the labour market since 2022.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Government borrowing forecasts are already based on GDP growth accelerating.
- The next government needs to boost growth just to fund implausibly weak Budget spending plans.
- Tax receipts will fall £30B a year below forecasts if productivity and participation match recent trends.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The MPC voted seven-to-two to keep interest rates on hold, as expected.
- The minutes of the meeting give the strong impression that the MPC is itching to cut rates.
- We stick to our call that the MPC will wait until September, but August is very much live.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- CPI inflation returned to the 2.0% target in May, for the first time since July 2021…
- …But CPI services inflation overshot the MPC’s forecast by 0.4pp, more than the 0.3pp miss in April.
- So, we push back our call for the first MPC rate cut to September, from August previously.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- House-price inflation has slowed as rising mortgage interest rates have deterred buyers…
- …But the typical two-year mortgage rate will drop 50bp by year-end if market pricing of rate cuts is right.
- We expect house prices to regain momentum and rise 3% year-over-year in December 2024.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The next government will inevitably raise taxes and public spending more than budgeted for currently.
- We expect that to support sterling by helping to keep market interest rates elevated.
- We forecast GBPUSD to rise to 1.33 at the end of the year, with risks to the upside.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We expect the MPC to vote 7-to-2 to hold Bank Rate, after growth, wages and inflation beat its forecasts.
- Inflation persistence fading more slowly than expected means the MPC will keep its guidance unchanged.
- We think slowing wage growth and inflation will trigger a rate cut in August.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
