Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)
- In one line: Dovish vote but cautious majority; February rate cut odds-on but only gradual interest rate reductions after.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Three MPC members supporting an immediate rate cut keeps a February reduction odds-on…
- ...But it is not a dead cert, as the cautious MPC minutes give rate-setters the option to skip February.
- MPC members went for flexibility, eschewing any commitment to cutting at specific meetings.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- A tobacco duty hike combined with base effects to lift headline CPI inflation to 2.6% in December.
- Tax hikes, fading energy deflation and stubborn services prices will raise CPI inflation to 3.1% in April.
- The MPC has to balance weak output against rising inflation; we look for three 25bp rate cuts in 2025.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Rebounding house prices show buyers are unfazed by stabilising mortgage rates.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Duties and base effects drive up CPI inflation, which will rise to 3.1% in April.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
STAGFLATIONARY TAXES = GRADUAL RATE CUTS...
- …BUT SOURING SENTIMENT MAY FORCE FASTER ACTION
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Higher pay growth and better jobs gains than the surveys will keep the MPC cautious.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Job growth has stalled but is still holding up better than tanking business surveys of hiring intentions.
- Private pay growth is likely to far exceed the MPC’s forecast of 5.1% year-over-year in Q4.
- A renewed trade-off between supporting output and fighting inflation will keep the MPC cutting cautiously.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: The headline trade deficit widens in October as erratics weigh on the headline balance.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line:Economy grinds to a halt as Budget uncertainty and tariff threats weigh on businesses.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Consumers’ confidence grinds higher in December.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The December PMI shows firms cutting hiring and raising prices in the wake of tax hikes and tariff threats.
- Manufacturing growth has been hit hard by tariff worries; services are rebounding as uncertainty falls.
- The re-emerging output-inflation trade-off will keep the MPC cutting interest rates only gradually.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Budget uncertainty, Mr. Trump’s tariff threats and a weak consumer hit October GDP.
- We lower our Q4 GDP growth forecast to 0.2% quarter-to-quarter; downside risks are building.
- The MPC will still be cautious; inflation expectations surged in Q4 to their highest since May 2022.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Falls in business surveys driven by Budget uncertainty have been exacerbated by Mr. Trump’s tariff threats.
- Uncertainty will persist given Mr. Trump’s election, posing downside risk to our UK growth forecasts.
- But growth will hold up better than business surveys suggest, as they are overreacting to policy worries.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: The RICS roars higher as buyers rush to beat stamp duty changes and the MPC’s second rate cut feeds through.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We expect the MPC to vote eight-to-one to keep Bank Rate on hold at next Thursday’s policy meeting.
- Weakening business surveys and stalling job gains need to be set against firm wage and inflation signals.
- The new shocks hitting the economy are stagflationary, which will keep the MPC cautious.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Tobacco duties and base effects will drive up CPI inflation to 2.6% in November, from 2.3% in October.
- CPI services inflation should tick up to 5.1% in November, above the MPC’s 4.9% forecast.
- We see upside risk to our forecasts for airfares and accommodation services.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Business and consumer surveys suggest hiring paused before the October Budget.
- We assume unchanged payrolls month-to-month in November, and the October jobless rate held at 4.3%.
- A strong DMP survey points to 0.3% month-to-month private-sector ex-bonus AWE growth in October.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: The REC weakens in November as the Budget tax hikes bite.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We expect GDP to rise 0.2% month-to-month in October, despite a fall in retail sales.
- Professional services should rebound, and a jump in GP appointments signals strong healthcare growth.
- We still expect GDP to grow 0.3% quarter-to-quarter in Q4, but risks lie to the downside.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
