Pantheon Macroeconomics

Best viewed on a device with a bigger screen...

Pantheon Publications

Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)

UK Datanote: UK Labour Market Data, May / June 2025

  • In one line: Jobs falls are easing and pay growth is far too high to deliver 2% inflation, but the MPC seems keen to cut anyway.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: UK Official House Price Index, May 2025

  • In one line: Prices will keep gaining as stamp duty disruption has further to unwind.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: U.K. Consumer Prices, June 2025

  • In one line: Inflation is proving sticky, with most of June's acceleration looking genuine.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: U.K. BRC Retail Sales Monitor, June 2025

  • In one line: A huge bounce in official retail sales is coming in June as seasonal distortions unwind.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: UK Report on Jobs Survey, June 2025

  • In one line: Potential future tax hikes hit hiring sentiment, but wage growth is slowing only gradually.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: UK RICS Residential Market Survey, June 2024

  • In one line: Recovering as the Stamp Duty disruption fades

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

18 July 2025 UK Monitor Job falls easing, and pay growth too high for 2% inflation

  • Surprise! Payrolls were revised to show jobs falling less than half as much this year as previously thought.
  • The payrolls trend is improving, and surveys suggest job falls are ending, while pay growth is proving sticky.
  • We reluctantly bring forward our rate-cut call to August, from November, but it’s a ‘one-and-done’.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

17 July 2025 UK Monitor Most of June's CPI inflation rise was genuine

  • Food, a motor fuels base effect and unwinding clothes discounting drove up June CPI inflation to 3.6%.
  • We think the inflation surprise represents genuine news rather than noise that will unwind in July.
  • We raise our forecasts, now expecting CPI inflation to average 3.6% in H2, up from 3.5% previously.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

16 July 2025 UK Monitor The ONS's BICS survey is a goldmine of information

  • The ONS BICS survey is timely, samples seven times more firms than the PMI and covers all the economy.
  • The BICS survey suggests stickier services inflation than the PMI and a stronger job recovery since April.
  • US tariffs are having a small impact on the UK economy, with 78% of firms unaffected.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

15 July 2025 UK Monitor Consumer spending to be supported by solid income growth

  • We expect real household disposable income to grow by 2.0% in 2025 and 1.3% in 2026.
  • Elevated inflation expectations will likely keep wage growth slowing only gradually.
  • Our call for 1.5% year-over-year consumption growth over 2025-to-27 needs only a modest saving rate fall.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

14 July 2025 UK Monitor Week in review: underlying growth is improving as uncertainty fades

  • A second consecutive drop in GDP raises the chances that the MPC cuts rate again in August.
  • But GDP should bounce in June, as real estate and car output improves and retail sales gain.
  • We expect May’s payrolls fall to be revised much smaller and CPI inflation to tick up to 3.5% in June.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

17 September 2024 UK Monitor Government debt on an unsustainable trajectory

  • The OBR has again deemed the public finances to be on an unsustainable trajectory.
  • Climate-change mitigation and an ageing population will be costly for the exchequer.
  • Lifting productivity growth is crucial for ensuring the debt burden remains manageable.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

11 July 2025 UK Monitor The housing market rebounds from stamp duty disruption

  • Green shoots of recovery emerge in the housing market as stamp duty disruption fades.
  • The RICS new buyer enquiries balance jumped by the most month-to-month in 24 years, ignoring Covid.
  • Homeowners should face a much smaller refinancing rate rise this year than in 2023 or 2024.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

10 July 2025 UK Monitor Unsustainable UK fiscal policy makes the market vulnerable

  • The UK’s unsustainable government-debt trajectory leaves gilts vulnerable to selling off.
  • The OBR this week detailed risks to its projection that government debt will hit 270% of GDP in the 2070s.
  • Gilt yields will likely avoid a sharp sell-off as long as  the government sticks to reasonably tight fiscal rules.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

9 July 2025 UK Monitor CPI preview: 3.5% in June, driven by higher food prices

  • We expect CPI inflation to nudge up to 3.5% in June from 3.4% in April, driven by food prices.
  • An earlier CPI collection date than our assumption of June 17 would pose downside risk…
  • …Clothes and hotel prices likely strengthened later in the month as temperatures rose.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

8 July 2025 UK Monitor Labour market preview: job growth recovering, pay growth slowing gradually

  • We expect May’s monthly payroll fall to be revised up by 77K, and June’s first estimate to show a 15K drop.
  • Payrolls have gone haywire, while leading indicators suggest job growth is improving.
  • Private ex-bonus AWE should rise 0.5% month-to-month as pay growth slows only gradually.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: UK Car Registrations, June 2025

  • In one line: Rising car registrations signals recovering underlying economic activity.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: Construction PMI, June 2025

  • In one line: The Construction PMI will continue to recover as tariff uncertainty fades and Government investment soars.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: UK Final Services and Composite PMI, June 2025

  • In one line: Happy days as growth improves and inflation slows; the MPC could welcome the news with another cut in August.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: Bank of England Decision Maker Panel, June 2025

  • In one line: Rebounding employment expectations suggest inflation pressure will remain stubborn.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

  Publication Filters

Change View: List   Small Grid  

Filter by Keyword

Filter by Region

Filter by Publication Type

Filter by Date
(6 months only; older publications available on request)

  Quick Tag Filters
 

Sign up for your complimentary trial

To start your complimentary trial, highlight the areas you are interested in subscribing to and click next.

United States

Eurozone

United Kingdom

China +

Emerging Asia

Latin America

Next

 
Consistently Right
Access Key Enabled Navigation
Keywords for: Publications

independent macro research, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence