Pantheon Macroeconomics

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Pantheon Publications

Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)

UK Datanote: UK Car Registrations, June 2025

  • In one line: Rising car registrations signals recovering underlying economic activity.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: Construction PMI, June 2025

  • In one line: The Construction PMI will continue to recover as tariff uncertainty fades and Government investment soars.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: UK Final Services and Composite PMI, June 2025

  • In one line: Happy days as growth improves and inflation slows; the MPC could welcome the news with another cut in August.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: Bank of England Decision Maker Panel, June 2025

  • In one line: Rebounding employment expectations suggest inflation pressure will remain stubborn.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: UK Final Manufacturing PMI, June 2025

  • In one line: June’s downward revisions to the PMI’s sub-indices were likely driven by oil prices, sentiment will continue to improve.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: UK Money & Credit, May 2025

  • In one line: Falling saving flows and rising corporate borrowing point to solid economic growth.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: U.K. Nationwide House Prices, June 2025

  • In one line: House prices fall in June but returning buyer demand will push up prices soon.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: UK National Accounts, Q1 2025

  • In one line: Better balanced growth after revisions bodes well.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

July 2025 - U.K. Housing Watch

HOUSE PRICES COLLAPSE IN APRIL...

  • ...BUT THE RECOVERY IS ALREADY UNDERWAY

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

7 July 2025 UK Monitor Week in review: good rebound vibes keep us expecting one cut

  • A range of soft and hard data last week supported our call that the economy is rebounding from a soft patch.
  • Fading uncertainty, and recovery after payback from tariff and tax front-running, help growth improve.
  • The DMP shows the pace of disinflation easing too, so we still look for only one more rate cut this year.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

4 July 2025 UK Monitor Between a rock and a hard place sits fudging the fiscal rules

  • U-turns scorch the Chancellor’s fiscal headroom, and appetite for corrective action seems limited.
  • We expect ‘stealth tax’ hikes, some of which boost inflation, and a fudge of the fiscal rules in the Budget.
  • The PMI and DMP show better growth and slower inflation, but we expect only one more rate cut in 2025.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

June 2025- UK Chartbook

WEAK JOBS PUSHING THE MPC TO AN AUGUST CUT...

  • …BUT ONLY ONE MORE CUT THIS YEAR IS THE RIGHT CALL

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

3 July 2025 UK Monitor GDP likely rebounded in May to grow by 0.1% month-to-month

  • We expect GDP to rise 0.1% month-to-month in May, as professional services activity rebounds.
  • We still look for quarter-to-quarter growth of 0.2% in Q2, below the MPC’s latest projection, 0.3%.
  • We remain upbeat on underlying growth, partly supporting our call for just one more rate cut in 2025.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

2 July 2025 UK Monitor Surging food prices will drive up CPI inflation to 3.5% in June

  • We expect CPI inflation to tick up to 3.5% in June from 3.4% in May, 0.1pp higher than the MPC expects.
  • Surging food prices—the biggest three-month rise in two years—and motor fuel base effects boost inflation.
  • Hot weather and a likely late CPI collection date pose upside risks to clothes prices.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

26 June 2025 UK Monitor Payroll data have gone haywire; job growth is likely improving

  • Official payroll data are vastly exaggerating the weakness in the job market, in our view.
  • May’s payrolls reading is especially unreliable, while the official data have diverged hugely from surveys.
  • Job vacancies seem to be stabilising, redundancies are low and jobless claims are down since October.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: U.K. Official House Price Index, April 2025

  • In one line: House prices fall in April, but the market will recover quickly.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: U.K. Consumer Prices, May 2025

  • In one line: ONS vehicle duty correction cuts inflation, news was small, inflation pressures remain sticky.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: UK Public Finances, May 2025

  • In one line:Public finances deteriorate in May, tax-hike speculation to mount over the summer.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: UK GfK Consumers' Confidence Survey, June 2025

  • In one line: Consumers’ confidence inches up, but it will be tested over the summer.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: UK MPC Decision and Minutes, June 2025

  • In one line: Rates and guidance unchanged in June, but a dovish tilt to the minutes. 

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

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independent macro research, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence