Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)
- The MPC is forecasting private pay growth, excluding bonuses, to slow to 3.25% in Q4 2025.
- But the vacancy-to-unemployment ratio is high and rising CPI inflation in 2025 could boost pay…
- ...so we expect private ex-bonus AWE growth to slow to 4.0% in Q4 2025, with risks skewed up.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The MPC is rightly encouraged by inflation expectations falling well below their 2022 peak.
- The BoE’s expectations survey is biased down, however, and YouGov expectations recently surged.
- Consumers are more attentive to inflation now; the MPC needs to be cautious as inflation rises in 2025.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line:The underlying GDP trend is stronger than the headline fall, which was dragged down by a huge erratic fall in IT.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: The headline trade deficit widens as erratics and metals give up their surpluses.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Erratic falls in IT and industrial production output led GDP to fall by 0.1% month-to-month in September.
- Solid consumption and investment in Q3 suggest stronger fundamentals than headline GDP implies.
- GDP growth should rebound to 0.3% quarter-to-quarter in Q4, matching the MPC’s forecast.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: The RICS price balance shrugs off Budget uncertainty to rise in October.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Similar to the market, we think the UK Budget and Mr. Trump’s election will boost UK inflation and rates.
- But we consider the sell-off in gilts overdone, with the market pricing only two rate cuts by August.
- Gilt yields will likely stay elevated near term, but we expect 10-year yields to drop to 4.1% by end-2025.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Gradually easing labour market will allow the MPC to keep cutting rates gradually
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: The REC weakens slightly in October, but the MPC downplay the survey now due to its poor correlation with official data.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Stubborn wages and prices keep the MPC cautious
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: More cautious MPC will cut once-a-quarter at most.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- GDP should rise 0.2% month-to-month in September, and 0.2% quarter-to-quarter in Q3.
- We expect the unemployment rate to tick up to 4.1% in September, and wage growth to slow.
- A massive labour-market surprise would be needed to shift the MPC, because the data are unreliable.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The MPC cut Bank Rate by 25bp in an eight-to-one vote, matching consensus expectations.
- But the MPC raised its inflation forecasts more than expected, and the minutes read more cautiously.
- We change our BoE call, now expecting three 25bp rate cuts in 2025, compared to four previously.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Retail sales growth falls according to the BRC, but it should improve
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: The PMI falls but still shows solid activity.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We cut our forecast for Q3 GDP growth to 0.2% from 0.3% previously, 0.1pp below the MPC’s forecast.
- Ms. Reeves’ Budget will keep the MPC from easing at back-to-back meetings this year.
- We expect four 25bp cuts from rate-setters in 2025, at a pace of one per quarter.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Expectations of further rate cuts continue to lift the housing market and corporate borrowing.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Consumers’ confidence falls on Budget, clarity on October 30 will help sentiment recover.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line:Government borrowing overshoots OBR forecast again, Ms. Reeves will raise planned taxes, spending and borrowing in her October 30 budget.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
