In one line: A big blow to hopes of a 50bp cut in December.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
The BoJ stays pat and Governor Ueda keeps options open
Duncan WrigleyChina+
China’s existing stimulus produces initial results, as state sector heeds strong policy signals
Duncan WrigleyChina+
China's stimulus lifts manufacturing PMI
BoJ stays pat and Governor Ueda keeps options open
Duncan WrigleyChina+
MIXED RECOVERY FOR LATAM ECONOMIES
- …AMID TEMPORARY INFLATION PRESSURES AND EXTERNAL THREATS
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
Probably not the start of a strong recovery.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Solid growth unlikely to prevent a November easing.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
No reason to change payroll forecasts, given ADP's poor record
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- Mexico saw strong growth in Q3, driven by agriculture and services, yet challenges lie ahead.
- Political uncertainty surrounding the US presidential election poses a risk to Mexico’s economy.
- Key sectors are showing resilience, but external factors could hit future growth and capex decisions.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- A trio of strong data tilts the balance of risk further in favour of a 25bp rate cut in December.
- Core inflation was firmer than expected in October, and it will increase a touch in November too.
- The ECB battle over the neutral rate has begun; Ms. Schnabel likely sees a relatively high number.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- We expect the MPC to vote eight-to-one to cut Bank Rate by 25bp at next Thursday’s policy meeting.
- Growth, inflation and crucially CPI services inflation have undershot rate-setters’ expectations.
- The MPC will open the option of consecutive cuts, but higher forecast inflation will keep it cautious.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
In one line: Little in the GDP data to support an accelerated ECB easing cycle.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- In one line: Resilient, but the near-term outlook remains difficult.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: Resilient, but the near-term outlook remains difficult.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
In one line: Recession averted (again), labour market weakness continues and upside risks to October inflation.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Disappointing; was the hit from construction investment bigger than we thought?
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
