Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)
- In one line: Private car registrations fall eases in January; the trend should improve in 2025.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Surging uncertainty and payroll taxes are keeping the economy close to stagnation, according to the PMI.
- But the PMI also signals underlying services inflation accelerating back above 5%.
- The MPC will cut Bank Rate today but will give cautious guidance as it balances growth and inflation.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We expect GDP to stagnate in December, putting growth at -0.1% quarter-to-quarter in Q4.
- Industrial production likely fell, while we expect healthcare and education to detract from growth.
- A small upward revision to November’s GDP would be enough to avoid GDP falling in Q4 as a whole.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: President Trump’s tariffs will snuff out a nascent rebound in the PMI.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We think President Trump’s tariffs, by fracturing supply chains, will be stagflationary for the UK.
- We expect CPI inflation to accelerate to 2.8% in January, 0.3pp more than the MPC expected.
- Goods inflation will slow, but airfares and private-school fees will boost services inflation.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: House price inflation is trending higher despite the weak monthly gain in Nationwide's index.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Payroll-tax hikes are driving growth down and inflation up to a greater extent than we expected.
- We cut our 2025 GDP forecast to 1.1% year-over-year, from 1.3%, but raise inflation by 10bp to 3.1%.
- We retain our long-held call for three cuts to Bank Rate in 2025, with the first coming on Thursday.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Easing consumer saving should support demand, but tax hikes hit business investment.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
PAYROLL TAXES CUT GROWTH AND BOOST INFLATION
- …THE MPC WILL BE ABLE TO CUT RATES THREE TIMES IN 2025
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We expect the MPC to cut Bank Rate by 25bp next week, with an eight-to-one vote in favour.
- The MPC is likely to raise near-term inflation forecasts above 3.0% but cut two-year-ahead projections a bit.
- The MPC will probably agree implicitly with a market curve that prices around three rate cuts in 2025.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Consumers’ confidence drops again in January as risks to the growth outlook build.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Payroll tax hikes cut jobs but raise inflation so the MPC will have to plot a middle course of cautious cuts.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Average earnings growth was surprisingly strong in November, even accounting for statistical noise.
- PAYE signals a 4.8% annualised month-to-month gain in private-sector ex-bonus AWE in December 2024.
- Slowing settlements are consistent with private AWE growth easing to 4.0% in Q4 2025, matching our call.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Both the PMI output growth and output price balances surprised to the upside in January.
- The MPC will cut rates in February, but inflation pressure means only three rate cuts in total this year.
- Payroll falls pose a downside risk to growth, but the ONS likely will revise up the December drop.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Jobs market is loosening gradually, but strong wage growth is a block to quick MPC rate cuts.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line:Public sector borrowing exceeded the OBR’s latest forecasts in December.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- MPC members are giving formal speeches less frequently now than before Covid.
- There is evidence that they retreated even further from communicating when inflation surged in 2022.
- We think this has made their reaction function more difficult to understand and is impacting markets.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The labour market is stronger than payrolls show; revisions should raise December’s drop to no change.
- Redundancies remain low and jobless claims show little sign of a sharp labour-market downturn.
- The MPC will ease in February, but strong wage growth blocks rapid interest rate reductions this year.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line:Disappointing retail sales raise the risk of a small GDP fall in Q4, so the MPC will definitely cut rates in February.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The weight of services in the CPI is likely to rise slightly in 2025, while the weight of goods should fall.
- Weight changes will be small compared to last years’ but still add 11bp to our inflation forecast…
- …because a smaller than usual weight of airfares in January reduces the impact of New Year price falls.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
