Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
- China’s National People’s Congress approved only a debt-swap plan on Friday, no direct stimulus.
- But the Finance Minister indicated that more measure s, for property and banks, are coming.
- China’s October foreign reserves plunged, in part probably due to bond-market outflows.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- A raft of ECB speeches got lost amid the furore that followed the US election and Berlin’s political crisis.
- Comments support our view of slow easing from here, and fewer cuts than markets have priced in.
- National industrial data imply this week’s EZ read will be ugly; industry still escaped recession in Q3, just.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- GDP should rise 0.2% month-to-month in September, and 0.2% quarter-to-quarter in Q3.
- We expect the unemployment rate to tick up to 4.1% in September, and wage growth to slow.
- A massive labour-market surprise would be needed to shift the MPC, because the data are unreliable.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
Weak October payrolls were only partly due to strikes and storms.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- In one line: A modest rebound, but the outlook has deteriorated.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: A modest rebound, but the outlook has deteriorated.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Chair Powell emphasised that the elections would have little bearing on December's policy decision...
- ...Labor market data will support a further 25bp easing; more to come in 2025, but fiscal policy will be key.
- The Fed has little to fear from unit labor costs, even after the latest upward revisions.
Samuel TombsUS
- The US election result shifts monetary policy expectations; LatAm central banks’ stance to tighten.
- Mr. Trump’s potential protectionist policies will exacerbate the economic challenges for LatAm.
- Rising inflation risks and BRL depreciation forced Brazil’s COPOM to accelerate interest rate hikes.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Philippine GDP growth dropped sharply to 5.2% in Q3, from 6.4% in Q2, decisively below expectations.
- Our seasonal adjustment shows that growth lost quarterly momentum; households remain anaemic.
- The capex outlook is no longer deteriorating, but BSP policy looks set to remain tighter; thank Trump.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Mr. Trump’s win likely means China’s NPC will today approve only modest stimulus to boost confidence.
- But a bigger multi-year package is likely on the way, with more leeway to mitigate the impact of tariffs.
- The BoJ is likely to favour growth with a slower pace of rate hikes but be alert to the risk of JPY weakness.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Early elections are coming in Germany; will they pave the way for looser fiscal policy in 2025? We think so.
- The addition of Germany to EZ retail sales data led to upward revisions to most months back to April…
- ...Further strength is likely in Q4, but the recession in industry rumbles on, and headwinds are mounting.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The MPC cut Bank Rate by 25bp in an eight-to-one vote, matching consensus expectations.
- But the MPC raised its inflation forecasts more than expected, and the minutes read more cautiously.
- We change our BoE call, now expecting three 25bp rate cuts in 2025, compared to four previously.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
In one line: German data included, EZ retail story rosier than previously thought
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Shallow recession in Spanish industry won’t last.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Fiscal stimulus in Germany? — Manufacturing and net trade stumbled at the end of Q3.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
GDP growth in the Philippines plunges to a five-quarter low
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: A bold 50bp hike to bring inflation expectations in check.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: A bold 50bp hike to bring inflation expectations in check.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: Retail sales growth falls according to the BRC, but it should improve
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
