- We expect GDP to rise 0.2% month-to-month in May, as retail sales and manufacturing rebound.
- GDP is on track to increase 0.5% quarter-to-quarter in Q2, matching the MPC’s forecast.
- We expect growth to slow to 0.3% quarter-to-quarter in H2 2024, still stronger than the MPC expects.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Swiss inflation edged lower, despite an uptick in services; a further, albeit marginal, fall is likely.
- We look for two more SNB rate cuts, taking the policy rate to 0.75% by year-end; markets see fewer cuts.
- The appointment of Martin Schlegel as the new SNB Chairman points to continuity in the rates outlook.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
Ugly activity and employment numbers, further signs of disinflation.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Layoffs still trending higher, but the data will be noisy over the coming weeks.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
In one line: Upward revision doesn’t change picture of cooling output growth in June.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: Upward revision doesn’t change picture of cooling output growth in June.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
China's Caixin services activity index slows during tourism off-season
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- US - May’s PCE data show the Fed has already done more than enough
- Eurozone - We’re lifting our EZ GDP growth forecasts for Q2, by 0.1pp to 0.3%
- UK - Forecast review: Cutting through a storm of strong data
- China+ - China’s light industry outperforms heavy industry, amid soft demand
- EM Asia - Thailand’s year-end digital cash handout will be no silver bullet
- LatAm - Banxico holds rates steady but signals potential for future cuts
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- ECB President Lagarde struck a somewhat hawkish tone in her Sintra speeches…
- ...But the main message from ECB speakers is that more rate cuts are on the way, data permitting.
- Overall, the Sintra conference left no mark on market-based and consensus rate expectations.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The PMI fell in June, but we think this will not become a trend...
- …as businesses will look to ramp up activity if the election delivers a clear result.
- Output prices picked up in June, squeezing the MPC’s room for manoeuvre at its August meeting.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
In one line: Virtually unchanged, but still on track for around 2% by August.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: Virtually unchanged, but still on track for around 2% by August.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- In one line: Consumers are back in business.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: House prices rise as mortgage rates look set to fall again.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We expect CPI inflation to fall to 1.9% in June, from 2.0% in May, 0.1pp below the MPC’s forecast.
- Inflation will be lowered by falling food inflation and a slight easing in the pace of services price gains.
- We expect services inflation to exceed the MPC’s forecast by the same margin as in May.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Headline inflation fell marginally in June, but the core was stable; no rate cut in July, but September is on.
- Rising global shipping costs present little upside threat to core goods inflation, for now.
- Services inflation will remain hot in the near term, but surveys point to widening downside risks.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Chile’s economy is struggling with weak domestic demand, despite a resilient labour market.
- Activity likely will gather speed in H2, thanks to lower interest rates, but downside threats remain.
- Peru’s headline inflation picture looks benign, but core remains sticky; BCRP faces policy challenges.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Indonesian inflation fell more quickly than expected in June, to 2.5%, as food disinflation intensified…
- …Bolstering our below-consensus CPI and BI rate forecasts; we still expect 50bp of cuts in Q4.
- The ongoing rise in manufacturing momentum in ASEAN looks durable, with activity more balanced.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
