Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Samuel Tombs
- Job openings are still trending down; catch-up growth in healthcare hiring is fizzling out.
- JOLTS net hiring in December was more muted than payroll growth; January jobs will probably disappoint.
- Auto sales likely were hit by bad weather in January: pre-tariff purchases probably have further left to run.
Samuel TombsUS
- We look for a 125K increase in January payrolls, well below the 170K consensus.
- Survey indicators present an incoherent picture, but unusually cold weather likely hit employment.
- The small fall in continuing claims points to a stable unemployment rate, but the risks are to the upside.
Samuel TombsUS
A sub-4% saving rate is unsustainable.
Samuel TombsUS
- The tariffs imposed by Mr. Trump will lift consumer prices by 0.6%, if they are maintained.
- Recent strong growth in consumption can be largely attributed to preemptive purchases of imports.
- A sub-4% saving rate is unsustainable; expect sub-2% GDP growth soon, as consumption growth slows.
Samuel TombsUS
Continuing claims consistent with flat unemployment in January.
Samuel TombsUS
- GDP rose by 2.3% in Q4, and measures of underlying momentum were even stronger...
- ...But growth is now extremely dependent on consumption, which likely will slow markedly from here.
- Expect a modest 0.8% rise in the Q4 ECI today, and smaller increases over coming quarters.
Samuel TombsUS
- Chair Powell said revisions to the FOMC’s statement were “not meant to send a signal”.
- We’re revising our Q4 GDP growth forecast to 1.5%, from 2.0%, due to weak trade and inventories data.
- Federal government payrolls could easily drop by between 100K and 200K by October.
Samuel TombsUS
- We think GDP rose by around 2% in Q4, driven mainly by another strong increase in consumption.
- Tariffs muddy the waters, but we expect growth to be much weaker this year than in 2024.
- The FOMC is unlikely to signal less easing after only one month’s better than expected labor market data.
Samuel TombsUS
- People are using credit, despite its high cost, to bring forward big-ticket purchases to avoid tariffs.
- Credit cards supported spending growth by 0.2pp in Q4; expect a similar boost in Q1, then a hefty drag.
- Business investment probably will continue to stagnate over the next few quarters.
Samuel TombsUS
- Business confidence is net unchanged since before the election, while consumers are more downbeat.
- PMI data signal strong growth in January payrolls, but other indicators point to renewed weakness.
- We doubt Mr Trump can engineer a both boom in oil output and much lower rates in the short term.
Samuel TombsUS
RISING UNEMPLOYMENT TO SPUR FURTHER FED EASING…
- …INFLATION WILL STILL FALL UNDER MOST TARIFF SCENARIOS
Samuel TombsUS
- Ignore the Q4 plunge in the BLS new tenant rent index; it is usually revised up sharply...
- …CPI housing inflation still looks set to slow this year, contributing to a fall in overall core inflation.
- California wildfires lifted initial claims last week, but the pick-up in continuing claims has deeper roots.
Samuel TombsUS
- The federal hiring freeze likely will reduce monthly payroll growth by about 15K from February to April.
- Federal jobs account for just 2% of total payrolls, making a very big drag on the headline unlikely.
- Measures of economic policy uncertainty have shot up; that’s usually a bad sign for payroll growth too.
Samuel TombsUS
- The tariff outlook is uncertain, but core PCE inflation probably will be lower at the end of 2025 than now.
- The upward impact on prices likely will be mitigated by a diversion in trade flows, among other factors.
- Beware forecasts for January payrolls derived from Homebase data, which are extremely seasonal.
Samuel TombsUS
- Tariffs are inflationary, despite claims to the contrary, and we see other upside risks during Trump 2.0…
- …But a repeat of the runaway inflation seen in the latter half of the 1970s seems very unlikely.
- The Fed provides a far more effective backstop against sustained inflation now than it did back then.
Samuel TombsUS
Disinflation still progressing; core PCE deflator likely up just 0.2%.
Samuel TombsUS
- Retail sales were solid in December, and consumers’ real spending likely rose by about 3.5% in Q4.
- Some temporary factors, however, probably are supporting sales; we expect a mid-year lull in spending.
- Governor Waller still envisages easing policy further in H1; we think rising layoffs will spur action in March.
Samuel TombsUS
Massive rise in airline fares leaves core PCE deflator set to rise by 0.3%.
Samuel TombsUS
- Reassuringly calm CPI data imply the core PCE deflator likely rose by just 0.19% in December.
- CPI auto prices will fall back in Q1, and leading indicators point to a lower core services inflation ahead.
- Retail sales probably were strong again in December, but a softer spell likely lies ahead.
Samuel TombsUS
- PPI data combined with our CPI forecast suggest core PCE inflation likely rose to 3.0% in December...
- ...But the PPI report also contained some reassuring signals for the near-term inflation outlook.
- Further improvement in the NFIB in December likely driven by politics rather than by fundamentals.
Samuel TombsUS
