Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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Samuel Tombs
- The average effective tariff rate has risen to 19%, from 16% a month ago; risks tilt towards a further rise.
- Shifting trade flows, margin compression and price rises abroad will temper the boost to consumer prices.
- The DOGE cuts were a small but significant drag on GDP in Q2, and probably will be again in Q3.
Revisions reveal a sharp slowdown; September easing incoming.
- Meager job gains in July and huge downward revisions leave payrolls looking far weaker than before.
- Private payrolls ex-healthcare fell by 16K per month on average in the three months to July.
- The stable unemployment rate reflects young people deferring active job search; hidden slack is mounting.
- The meager growth in consumers’ spending in the first half of this year probably will continue in the second.
- Modest gains in nominal incomes will struggle to keep up with the post-tariff jump in consumer prices.
- We see core PCE inflation hitting 3¼% by year-end, but expect the Fed to prioritize the softening labor market.
