Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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Samuel Tombs
- We see limited macro implications if Democrats keep the White House...
- ...But split control of Congress likely would mean a slight tightening in fiscal policy, given current plans.
- A Trump victory risks higher inflation and rates, and weaker growth, especially if GOP sweeps Congress.
Samuel TombsUS
- In one line: Growth will bounce back but easing inflation will lead the MPC to cut rates in November.
Samuel TombsUK
- The GDP-GDI gap is big, but revisions usually result in GDI being pulled towards GDP, not vice-versa.
- Firms’ interest payments likely will be revised up, boosting the imputed interest income of households.
- The employment index of S&P’s PMI survey points to very weak growth in private payrolls this autumn.
Samuel TombsUS
- The modest easing planned by the FOMC will be too little, too late, to stabilize the unemployment rate.
- Reductions in the funds rate will lower private sector net interest payments less decisively than in the past.
- Expect a federal funding extension bill to be passed just in time, but bigger squabbles loom next year.
Samuel TombsUS
RESTRICTIVE FED POLICY NO LONGER WARRANTED...
- ...EASING MUST BE RAPID TO STABILIZE THE LABOR MARKET
Samuel TombsUS
Fast out the starting blocks; we expect further 50s soon.
Samuel TombsUS
- Claims fell to a 20-week low due to faulty seasonal adjustment and calm weather; the firing trend is flat.
- The mix of steady layoffs and a further fall in hiring will propel unemployment upwards at a faster pace.
- Existing home sales dropped back again in August, and a significant recovery is unlikely in the near term.
Samuel TombsUS
- The FOMC’s forecasts imply that slow, steady, easing will stabilize the labor market soon...
- ...But policy is not that powerful and works with long lags; the Committee will ease in 50bp steps again.
- Housing starts rebounded in August, but a further climb is unlikely in the near term.
Samuel TombsUS
Consistent with another quarter of brisk growth in consumption, but slower growth lies ahead
Samuel TombsUS
- A 25bp easing today is slightly more likely than a 50bp, but markets will care more about the dotplot.
- The Committee likely will forecast 100bp of easing this year, but less than markets expect in 2025.
- August retail sales point to strong consumption growth in Q3; but the outlook is dimming.
Samuel TombsUS
- Homebase data point to rapid growth in private payrolls in September, but they are deeply flawed.
- Hospitality firms dominate the sample, and we have too little data to make good calendar adjustments.
- Data from Visa and Opentable signal that the control measure of retail sales rose further in August.
Samuel TombsUS
- Households have spent all their “excess” savings; liquid assets returned to their long-run trend in Q2.
- Bank deposits are more unevenly distributed than in the 2010s; rising unemployment will lift saving.
- Fed easing will be less stimulative than usual, due to mortgage refinancing during the pandemic.
Samuel TombsUS
PPI and CPI data suggest the August core PCE rose by about 0.14%, sustaining the slowdown.
Samuel TombsUS
- In one line: The PMI signals faster growth and slower inflation, but the employment balances will worry the MPC.
Samuel TombsUK
- In one line: A mixed bag for the MPC as inflation slows but employment and business confidence surge.
Samuel TombsUK
- In one line: The PMI fall is an election-related blip, the UK is growing fine.
Samuel TombsUK
A gradual recovery is taking hold, but manufacturing is too small to alter the bigger picture.
Samuel TombsUS
