Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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Samuel Tombs
- The aggregate DPI is a poor guide to CPI core goods prices, but some components are well correlated.
- The useful component DPIs point to no step up yet in the pace of goods price rises in response to tariffs.
- A very low response rate to NFIB’s survey casts doubt over the May rebound in small business confidence.
- We think the core CPI rose by 0.3% in May, but a 0.2% increase looks more likely than a 0.4%.
- Indicators point to a moderate step up in the pace of core goods price rises; the surge is coming from June.
- Discretionary services prices likely were soft again, while the seasonals will pull down other services prices.
Rise in openings irreconcilable with other evidence.
- Moderate payroll growth in May offers little reassurance, due to the re-emerging pattern of downward revisions.
- Hiring intentions indicators point to payroll growth slowing to about 75K in Q3; federal job cuts will continue.
- The trend of slowing payroll growth will be startling by the FOMC’s September meeting, compelling easing.
- ADP’s private payroll numbers are a woeful guide to the official data; even back-to-back low prints offer no signal.
- As a result, we are maintaining our forecast for a 125K increase in nonfarm payrolls in May.
- QCEW data imply big downward revisions to payrolls, but mostly because they exclude unauthorized workers.
- The JOLTS participation and response rates are very low; downward revisions have been common lately.
- Other indicators point to fading demand for new hires; at the same time layoffs are starting to rise.
- Several “soft” data series have reversed their April plunges, providing some reassurance about activity.
- We look for a 125K rise in May payrolls; the surge in distribution sector jobs likely has petered out...
- ...While the most reliable survey indicators show that rising uncertainty has weighed on hiring.
- Continuing claims data point to another rise in unemployment, increasing pressure on the FOMC to ease.
- Consumers’ spending is on track for respectable growth in Q2, but a sharper slowdown looms...
- ...As tariff-induced prices increases push up core PCE inflation, weighing on real incomes.
- Tariff-related distortions to the trade and inventories likely will artificially boost Q2 GDP growth.
