Pantheon Publications

25 June 2024 China+ Monitor Korean export rebound spearheaded by AI-related chip shipments

• Korea’s 20-day exports continued their uptrend in June, thanks to base effects and chip demand.
• Exports to the US are soaring, while shipments to China rose modestly; but the EU market is still weak.
• Export value growth is outpacing volume growth, thanks to rising semiconductor prices.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

25 June 2024 Eurozone Monitor Don't jump the gun on Germany's poor survey data for June

• German surveys turned south in June, but don’t write off the idea of a rebound in growth just yet.
• Early hard data suggest GDP rose again in Q2, but a fall in construction will weigh on growth.
• Leading indicators tentatively hint at a bottom in German investment, but the rebound will be slow.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

25 June 2024 UK Monitor Just meeting the Budget growth forecasts will be hard

• Government borrowing forecasts are already based on GDP growth accelerating.
• The next government needs to boost growth just to fund implausibly weak Budget spending plans.
• Tax receipts will fall £30B a year below forecasts if productivity and participation match recent trends.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

EZ Datanote: IFO, Germany, June

In one line: Still up over Q2 as a whole.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EM Asia Datanote: Retail Sales, Taiwan, May

• In one line: Weakness in consumer demand remains, despite improvement in headline.

Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 24 June 2024

Core inflation in Singapore remains unchanged in May, despite headline rise

Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

PM Datanote: US Existing Home Sales, May

New mortgage rates still far too high for transactions to recover

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

PM Datanote: US S&P Global Composite PMI, May

Still humming along nicely.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

EM Asia Datanote: Customs Trade, Thailand, May

• In one line: A not-so-emphatic return to the black, once adjusted for seasonality.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

UK Datanote: UK Flash PMIs, June 2024

• In one line: The PMI fall is an election-related blip, the UK is growing fine.

Samuel TombsUK

Global Datanote: Advance PMIs, Germany, June 2024

In one line: Stung by renewed weakness in manufacturing.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global

EZ Datanote: Advance PMIs, Germany, June 2024

In one line: Stung by renewed weakness in manufacturing.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

Global Datanote: INSEE Business Confidence & Advance PMIs, France, June

In one line: Hit by political uncertainty, but no panic. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global

EZ Datanote: INSEE Business Confidence & Advance PMIs, France, June

In one line: Hit by political uncertainty, but no panic. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

UK Datanote: UK MPC Decision and Minutes, June 2024

• In one line: The MPC take another step to a cut.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: UK Public Finances, May 2024

• In one line: Borrowing close to Budget forecasts, but unrealistic spending plans mean the next government will borrow more and raise taxes.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: Retail Sales, May 2024

• In one line:Shoppers return in force, offering upside risks to Q2 GDP.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: UK GfK Consumers' Confidence Survey, June 2024

• In one line: Strengthening real wage growth and emerging hopes for the economy boost consumer confidence.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK