Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)
- Peru’s inflation ended 2024 in the target range; this will allow the BCRP to cut the main rate to neutral.
- Risks loom for the economy; political uncertainty and global trade dynamics challenge future growth.
- Brazil’s trade balance shrank in Q4, but we expect a gradual upturn in 2025 as domestic demand slows.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Chile’s decent economic growth continued in Q4, yet inflation pressures pose significant issues ahead.
- Improved consumption is driving growth, but mining and services are faltering; more rate cuts are needed.
- BCCh’s recent rate cuts signal cautious optimism, but external noise and rising labour costs are threats.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Colombia’s BanRep is adopting a cautious stance amid weaker COP and persistent inflation pressures.
- Fiscal pressures and political dynamics are complicating the economic recovery across LatAm.
- Emerging-market risks are rising as global financial conditions tighten and external noise intensifies.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: A smaller rate cut than expected amid rising inflation risks.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: A smaller rate cut than expected amid rising inflation risks.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: A modest cut; increasing uncertainty is preventing bolder action.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
INCREASED INFLATION THREATS AND EXTERNAL RISKS…
- …ARE FORCING SOME CENTRAL BANKS TO MOVE TO THE SIDELINES
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Banxico likely will continue to cut rates in 2025, looking for opportunities to accelerate the pace…
- …But increased domestic policy risk and external noise under Trump 2.0 will demand prudence.
- The BRL sell-off eased late last week thanks to BCB’s actions, but fiscal reassurance is what’s needed.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: A modest cut; increasing uncertainty is preventing bolder action.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- A deteriorating near-term inflation outlook will force the BCCh to move to the sidelines in Q1.
- Colombia’s economy started Q4 robustly, but it is too soon to bet on a smooth ride in H1.
- Fiscal noise is forcing the BCB to intervene in Brazil’s FX market, but this will be insufficient.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Brazil — Fiscal risk and political noise
- Mexico — At a crossroads ahead of a tricky H1
- Argentina — Emerging from years of economic turmoil
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- The end of the easing cycle in Chile is nearing, as domestic and external uncertainty tick higher.
- Colombia’s BanRep will continue to cut rates from still-elevated levels, though fiscal noise’s a constraint.
- Banxico is considering accelerating easing, but near term threats likely will impede faster progress.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: A poor start to the quarter due to tight financial conditions.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Mr. Milei’s policies in his first year as President have led to historic disinflation and economic stabilisation.
- Strengthening ties with the US suggest Argentina could be the regional winner under Trump 2.0.
- Hurdles for next year include sustained disinflation, legislative challenges and external noise.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: On hold, but ready to cut if the economic recovery falters.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: On hold, but ready to cut if the economic recovery falters.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: A decent start to Q4, but downside risks remain for 2025.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: A decent start to Q4, but downside risks remain for 2025.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Peru’s BCRP signals a data-driven approach as inflation ticks up and economic activity improves.
- Brazil’s economic data surged beyond expectations, driven by a strong labour market and fiscal support.
- This strengthens the case for continued interest rate hikes, which will bring activity back down to earth.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Brazil’s COPOM intensifies the pace of interest rate hikes as inflation expectations rise widely.
- Further rate hikes are in the pipeline; focus is now on the government’s ability to control the fiscal deficit.
- Mexico’s industrial sector is struggling, with uncertainty looming large until Trump 2.0 fears disappear.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
