- In one line: A modest downtick in late Q4, but the outlook is grim.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: A modest downtick in late Q4, but the outlook is grim.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Brazil’s headline inflation ended 2024 benignly, but the outlook is difficult, demanding urgent action.
- Fiscal solutions are needed, even if slowing activity and higher interest rates will contain inflation.
- The retail and industrial sectors face increasing hurdles, as November’s data highlight.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Under pressure due to tight financial conditions.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Undershooting expectations; a relief for the BCCh.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: Undershooting expectations; a relief for the BCCh.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- December inflation data for Mexico and Chile suggest their central banks will remain cautious in Q1.
- Headline inflation in Mexico fell to the lowest level since 2021, but core inflation edged up in late Q4.
- Chile’s underlying disinflation trend continued in December, but the CLP sell-off is a near-term threat.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Brazilian Real — Fiscal concerns and global uncertainty
- Colombian Peso — Starting Q1 on a stronger footing
- Chilean Peso — Struggling amid global risks
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Peru’s inflation ended 2024 in the target range; this will allow the BCRP to cut the main rate to neutral.
- Risks loom for the economy; political uncertainty and global trade dynamics challenge future growth.
- Brazil’s trade balance shrank in Q4, but we expect a gradual upturn in 2025 as domestic demand slows.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Chile’s decent economic growth continued in Q4, yet inflation pressures pose significant issues ahead.
- Improved consumption is driving growth, but mining and services are faltering; more rate cuts are needed.
- BCCh’s recent rate cuts signal cautious optimism, but external noise and rising labour costs are threats.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Colombia’s BanRep is adopting a cautious stance amid weaker COP and persistent inflation pressures.
- Fiscal pressures and political dynamics are complicating the economic recovery across LatAm.
- Emerging-market risks are rising as global financial conditions tighten and external noise intensifies.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: A smaller rate cut than expected amid rising inflation risks.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: A smaller rate cut than expected amid rising inflation risks.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: A modest cut; increasing uncertainty is preventing bolder action.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
INCREASED INFLATION THREATS AND EXTERNAL RISKS…
- …ARE FORCING SOME CENTRAL BANKS TO MOVE TO THE SIDELINES
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Banxico likely will continue to cut rates in 2025, looking for opportunities to accelerate the pace…
- …But increased domestic policy risk and external noise under Trump 2.0 will demand prudence.
- The BRL sell-off eased late last week thanks to BCB’s actions, but fiscal reassurance is what’s needed.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: A modest cut; increasing uncertainty is preventing bolder action.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
