Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)
- In one line: Disinflation resumes, but risks linger.
- Brazilian Real — Under strain as trade risk rises
- Mexican Peso — Holding firm amid headwinds
- Colombian Peso — Rally ended by an array of risks
- Chile's non-mining sectors remain robust, helped by strong consumption and improving investment.
- The slump in mining output is weighing on headline growth, but external demand and copper are buffers.
- Fiscal pressures are rising as revenues lag behind target, raising the risk of budget-tightening ahead.
- Sticky core inflation and rising wage risk delay further cuts in Colombia, despite headline disinflation.
- Governor Villar flagged the worsening public finances; FM Bonilla offered little clarity on budget plans.
- We expect a shallow easing cycle, with cuts resuming only if inflation risks ease meaningfully.
- In one line: Industrial output disappoints again as tariffs loom.
- In one line: Mining volatility drags on Q2, but growth outlook holds firm.
- In one line: Mining volatility drags on Q2, but growth outlook holds firm.
- Mexico’s industrial and service sectors rebounded in Q2, offsetting weak agriculture.
- The US tariff extension brings near-term relief, supporting manufacturing, exports and capex.
- Domestic policy volatility, weak sentiment and a real wage slowdown still weigh on broader momentum.
LATAM RECOVERY REMAINS UNEVEN AMID POLICY AND RISK…
- …DISINFLATION IS PROGRESSING, BUT GROWTH REMAINS FRAGILE
- In one line: Labour market still strong, but momentum set to fade.
- In one line: Retail strength holds; mining hit by temporary setback.
- In one line: On hold, signalling caution amid heightened uncertainty.
- In one line: On hold, signalling caution amid heightened uncertainty.
- In one line: Solid momentum but headwinds lingering.
- In one line: Solid momentum but headwinds lingering.
- The COPOM kept rates on hold and a cautious tone, highlighting persistent inflation and global risks…
- …US tariffs raise external threats, but exemptions soften the impact on Brazil’s key export sectors.
- BCCh resumed its easing cycle with a 25bp cut, signalling a gradual return to neutral if warranted.
- Brazil’s COPOM is likely to keep rates elevated amid sticky inflation, BRL volatility and fiscal uncertainty.
- Non-oil exports surged in Mexico, led by electronics, while the auto sector remains under pressure…
- …Imports signal economic slowdown, as capital goods and consumer demand shrink once again.
- Economic activity in Argentina is firm, but early signs of fatigue are emerging as credit conditions tighten.
- Structural fiscal issues and political frictions with the provinces threaten longer-term macro consolidation.
- Dollarisation and thin reserves leave it vulnerable, despite the recent disinflation and IMF programme.
- In one line: Inflation stabilises as demand cools.
- Headline inflation is stabilising in Brazil, but services remain sticky amid wage pressures.
- A stronger BRL and falling input prices are helping, but tariff noise and politics cloud the outlook.
- PMIs signal weakening activity; firms are cutting back on hiring and capex as confidence deteriorates.
