Pantheon Publications

6 June 2024 LatAm Monitor Political noise and the Fed remain the key drivers

• Brazilian Real — Tumbling amid policy uncertainty
• Mexican Peso — Hurt by MORENA’s landslide victory
• Argentinian Peso — Plunges amid policy uncertainty

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

Global Datanote: GDP, First Quarter, Brazil, 2024

• In one line: A solid Q1, but conditions have worsened recently.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global

PM Datanote: GDP, First Quarter, Brazil, 2024

• In one line: A solid Q1, but conditions have worsened recently.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

5 June 2024 LatAm Monitor Brazil's economic momentum hits a speed bump after promising Q1

• Brazil’s economic rebound faces a number of headwinds despite solid Q1 growth.
• High interest rates and severe floods will dampen Brazil’s growth prospects over the coming quarters.
• Inflation in Peru cooled in May, paving the way for further rate cuts amid policy uncertainty.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

Global Datanote: Economic activity index, Chile, April, 2024

• In one line: Under pressure on a sequential basis.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global

PM Datanote: Economic activity index, Chile, April, 2024

• In one line: Under pressure on a sequential basis.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

PM Datanote: Mexican Presidential Elections, Early Results, 2024

• In one line: A landslide victory for Ms Sheinbaum.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

4 June 2024 LatAm Monitor Landslide victory in Mexico gives MORENA strong political capital

• Claudia Sheinbaum makes history after being elected as Mexico’s first female president.
• Ms. Sheinbaum’s victory was expected, but a potential MORENA supermajority brings uncertainty.
• The Chilean economic activity index rebounded in April, but disappointing details point to rate cuts.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

May 2024 - Latin America Chartbook

LATAM RECOVERY REMAINS SUBPAR...

• ...BUT LOW INFLATION IS ALLOWING GRADUAL INTEREST RATE CUTS

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

PM Datanote: Industrial Production and Retail Sales, Chile, April

• In one line: Struggling on a sequential basis, despite the solid headline numbers.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

3 June 2024 LatAm Monitor Banxico Labour market strength in Brazil complicates the inflation fight

• The Brazilian labour market’s resilience will continue to raise inflation concerns for policymakers.
• Robust economic activity in recent months likely will slow the disinflation process, but not for long.
• Downside risks persist for the economy in H2; tighter financial conditions will be the main drag, by far.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America