In one line: Going nowhere, and Q4 won’t be much better.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
Japan’s headline consumer inflation slows only thanks to energy subsidies
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Flash manufacturing PMI was hit by falling output, despite an improvement in export orders
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Japan's headline inflation falls only thanks to energy subsidies
Flash manufacturing PMI weakens
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- In one line: Consumers’ confidence recovers in November, but was held back by rising inflation and market interest rates.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
Steady slide in India’s PMIs continues, despite the November pop in services
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Economic activity is slowing as inflation remains benign, raising rate-cut expectations for Banxico…
- …But external pressures and domestic challenges will complicate monetary policy decisions.
- Fiscal uncertainty looms as government revenue targets clash with growth forecasts for 2025.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- The general downtrend in India’s PMIs is still very much in play, de spite the November services pop.
- Hiring is supposedly going gangbusters, based on the PMI, but the hard data still tell a different story.
- Indonesia is pushing ahead with a VAT hike to 12% in January; the last rise in 2022 is uninformative.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Japan’s October headline CPI inflation fell only because energy subsidies pulled down energy prices.
- Core inflation excluding energy has been steady for three straight months.
- Don’t expect a knee-jerk BoJ reaction after the end of energy subsidies lifts November’s headline inflation.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Sinking EZ PMIs bring back speculation about a 50bp rate cut in December; we still see 25bp.
- Domestic political uncertainty is weighing on French activity; Germany is still stuck in the mud.
- Long-leading indicators still signal a better near term outlook for growth than the PMIs.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The PMI at a 13-month low signals stalling GDP growth, as the Budget hits sentiment.
- Stubborn PMI price pressures will keep the MPC on alert; it will wait till February to cut rates again.
- Retail sales will rebound after warmer weather and a calendar quirk exaggerated the drop in October.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
WILL MARKETS’ ENTHUSIASM FOR MR. TRUMP PERSIST?
- …INFLATION RISKS ARE BIG ENOUGH TO SLOW FED EASING
Samuel TombsUS
Still weak, with no recovery likely anytime soon.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Pick-up in continuing claims consistent with a further slowing in hiring.
Samuel TombsUS
In one line: Up in manufacturing, down in services; GDP to flat-line in Q4 after the Olympics boost in Q3.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- In one line:Surging debt interest costs raise borrowing, leaving the Chancellor with little headroom.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
Korean export growth picks up a notch, as chip shipments roar
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Korean export growth picks up a notch, as chip shipments roar
Duncan WrigleyChina+
In one line: Construction was back recession in Q3; it will remain there in Q4.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- In one line: Gradually slowing underlying inflation means only gradual cuts.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
