Pantheon Macroeconomics

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Pantheon Publications

Below is a list of our Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)

18 July 2024 LatAm Monitor Political upheaval and economic reforms

  • Brazil — Senate grapples with tax-break dilemma
  • Mexico — President-elect appoints her cabinet
  • Chile —  Boric navigates pension and energy reforms

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

17 July 2024 LatAm Monitor Colombia and Peru: diverging economic fortunes

  • Colombia’s manufacturing sector is struggling, while Peru’s economy is showing outstanding resilience.
  • High interest rates and inflation dampen Colombia’s growth; domestic demand is improving in Peru.
  • Political uncertainty is hindering Colombia’s recovery; Peru’s outlook is brightening, despite politics.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

16 July 2024 LatAm Monitor Brazil's economic resilience; Argentina's inflation battle

  • Brazil’s economy continues to show resilience in Q2, supported by a strong labour market.
  • The outlook for H2 is positive, despite challenges, but tight financial conditions will hurt in 2025.
  • Argentina’s inflation continues to undershoot, bolstering confidence in Milei’s stabilisation plan.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

15 July 2024 LatAm Monitor Peru's BCRP on hold, balancing sticky inflation with easing expectations

  • Peru's BCRP held rates for a second straight meeting, amid sticky core inflation, but eyes future easing.
  • A mixed performance for Mexico's industrial sector: construction is solid, manufacturing is struggling.
  • Banxico's minutes lean towards a rate cut in August; softening economic activity supports this view.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

Global Datanote: CPI, Brazil, June, 2024

  • In one line: Temporary pressures but underlying trends under control. 

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global

PM Datanote: Inflation IPCA, Brazil, June, 2024

  • In one line: Temporary pressures but underlying trends under control. 

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

12 July 2024 LatAm Monitor Underlying inflation in Brazil subdued, despite solid consumption

  • Brazil’s underlying inflation picture remains in check, but political and economic risks are intensifying.
  • BCB faces a complex scenario as the labour market and private consumption appear resilient, for now.
  • Retail sales surged in May despite economic headwinds, beating expectations.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

11 July 2024 LatAm Monitor Recovery prospects amid economic challenges and policy shifts

  • Brazil — Positive outlook amid improving conditions
  • Mexico — Navigating turbulence
  • Colombia — Reforms, challenges and signs of recovery

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

Global Datanote: CPI, Mexico, June, 2024

  • In one line: Core improvement amid weather-driven pressures.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global

PM Datanote: CPI, Mexico, June, 2024

  • In one line: Core improvement amid weather-driven pressures.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

10 July 2024 LatAm Monitor Mexico and Colombia: mixed inflation signals amid rate cut prospects

  • Mexico’s core inflation slows, hinting at rates cuts, despite weather-related pressures.
  • Colombia’s core inflation continues to ease, paving the way for BanRep rate cuts…
  • …but fiscal concerns and external challenges will likely limit the acceleration of the rate-cutting pace.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

9 July 2024 LatAm Monitor Chile's inflation undershot in June; BCCh to continue cautious rate cuts

  • Inflation undershot expectations in June, which likely will allow the central bank to cut rates further.
  • Risks remain, though; electricity tariffs are set to rise, but soft domestic demand will help to ease the hit.
  • Reduced pension-system uncertainty and benign global conditions will allow further rate normalisation.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

8 July 2024 LatAm Monitor Brazil's economic tightrope; the COPOM faces a balancing act

  • Brazil’s industrial sector is struggling, as the labour market continues to defy expectations.
  • The COPOM faces tough decisions amid rising inflation and political pressure from President Lula.
  • Fiscal concerns are mounting as the budget deficit is deepening, complicating monetary policy.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

3 July 2024 LatAm Monitor Chile's economy struggling as domestic demand falters

  • Chile’s economy is struggling with weak domestic demand, despite a resilient labour market.
  • Activity likely will gather speed in H2, thanks to lower interest rates, but downside threats remain.
  • Peru’s headline inflation picture looks benign, but core remains sticky; BCRP faces policy challenges.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

2 July 2024 LatAm Monitor Colombia's BanRep cuts rates and maintains cautious stance

  • BanRep has cut rates in a split decision, balancing inflation concerns with growth expectations.
  • We expect further rate cuts in H2, assuming stable policy/political risk and benign external conditions.
  • The labour market remains resilient, but weakening key sectors indicate challenges ahead.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

PM Datanote: Industrial Production, Retail Sales, and Unemployment, Chile, May, 2024

  • In one line: A mixed performance, with activity struggling, but the job market remains resilient for now.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

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