- Mr. Trump’s promise of higher tariffs and tax cuts should prove stagflationary for the UK.
- The MPC will focus on the inflation boost, because inflation expectations are elevated.
- We expect CPI inflation to rise to 2.2% in October, from 1.7% in September, as utility prices increase.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
In one line: Poor, and it will get worse at the start of Q2.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
Caixin services PMI points to activity uptick
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Inventories spike keeps Indonesian GDP growth from slowing more sharply in Q3
Inflation in the Philippines should stabilise near the lower end of the BSP’s range
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- US - The Fed would have to react to Trump’s trade tariffs this time
- EUROZONE - A Trump win would push EURUSD down, and yields up, on the day
- UK - Ms. Reeves torches Governor Bailey’s plans for rapid rate cuts
- CHINA+ - China’s PMIs point to stimulus gradually gaining purchase
- EM ASIA - The soft patch in ASEAN manufacturing continues
- LATAM - Mexico’s economy thriving in Q3, but outlook depends on US election
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- Economic activity is showing signs of stagnation as key sectors struggle with persistent challenges.
- Political shifts indicate potential for business-friendly policies, given voter sentiment for change.
- Future growth prospects depend on effective reforms, and stability in external conditions.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- GDP growth in Indonesia missed expectations in Q3, slipping to 4.9% from 5.0% in Q2…
- …An historic leap in inventories prevented a sharper drop, but this sets up a painful payback in Q4.
- Trade and related investment were real bright spots, while consumption remains relatively lacklustre.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The headline composite PMI fell in October, and is consistent with 0.2% quarter-to-quarter growth.
- Uncertainty around the Budget, energy price rises and the external environment weakened sentiment.
- We think the PMI will rebound, as the MPC cuts rates, while Budget uncertainty has faded.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- Floods mean the risk to our call for Spanish GDP to ease slightly in Q4, to 0.6%, is for a bigger slowdown.
- It would take a significant hit to GDP for Spain to underperform the rest of the big four though.
- French industry rose over Q3, despite the fall in September; it is unlikely to increase again in Q4.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Decent GDP data support investor sentiment but it remains subdued.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Little to suggest the rut in industry is ending, despite increase.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: Little to suggest the rut in industry is ending, despite increase.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Brazil’s economy remained solid in Q3, yet COPOM faces slowing momentum and external pressures.
- The BRL sell-off, linked to US election uncertainty, means COPOM will consider an aggressive rate hike.
- Peru’s core inflation rate has fallen, supporting further interest rate cuts by the BCRP this week.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- The PMI for ASEAN was unchanged in October, at 50.5, despite a post-Yagi bounce-back in Vietnam…
- …Export-oriented countries, at large, have lost a lot of steam recently, in a warning sign for world trade.
- Indonesia’s sluggishness is a huge drag, given its sheer size; the rise in lead times is reversing.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Sell EURUSD and bonds if you’re convinced that Mr. Trump will win Tuesday’s US election.
- Leading indicators for EZ investment are downbeat, but growth still has room to rebound, a touch.
- Capacity utilisation rates point to robust growth in services capex, and the inventory cycle is turning.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The official house price index rebounded in August, rising 1.0% month-to-month.
- The Chancellor’s stimulatory Budget will prevent mortgage rates from falling much further.
- But the drop in mortgage rates thus far means house prices should gain 4.5% year-over-year in December.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
