ASEAN manufacturing ends H1 on a solid note
Food disinflation in Indonesia intensifies, returning the headline rate back to BI’s target
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
PMI's June surge tells us nothing about the national picture.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
The economy’s main engine of growth is looking a lot weaker.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- In one line: A mixed performance, with activity struggling, but the job market remains resilient for now.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: GDP growth rebounds as consumers find their mojo.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
In one line: Rising jobless claims likely will lift unemployment further in the near term.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- In one line: Inflated—yet again—by ‘other’ retail sales; ignore.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
In one line: EZ headline and core inflation still on track for marginal declines in June.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
Tokyo consumer inflation nudged up by the removal of energy subsidies
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- In one line: On hold, but rate cuts will resume soon, assuming the MXN stabilises.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Real consumption set for another 1.5% increase in Q2; a rising saving rate will slow growth further soon.
- The 0.08% core PCE print was driven by noisy components, but underlying services inflation eased too.
- We look for another sub-50 ISM manufacturing index in June; tight monetary policy is preventing a revival.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Banxico held rates at 11% amid the MXN sell-off and rising inflation but the split vote signals a dovish shift.
- Policymakers hinted at future easing, as the economy weakens and inflation falls.
- The resilient labour market could face headwinds if economic weakness persists.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- The year-over-year slump in Thai consumption growth has bled into Q2, amid poor wage growth.
- The Q4 handout is unlikely to offer real relief, with more households struggling just to pay off debt.
- Philippines’ household savings rose in 2023 for the first time since 2019; the battle is far from over.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Inflation in the EZ likely fell in June, by 0.1pp to 2.5%; all set for a dovish message from Sintra this week.
- Forecast upgrades in Spain and France mean we now estimate EZ GDP grew by 0.3% q/q in Q2.
- German unemployment hit a new post-Covid high in June and likely will rise a bit further in Q3.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Q1 GDP growth was raised to 0.7% quarter-to quarter, and the expansion was broad-based.
- We expect GDP growth of 0.4% quarter-to-quarter in Q2, and 0.3% in Q3 and Q4...
- ...As strong real income growth and stabilising saving boost consumer spending.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The headline PMI dropped to 51.7, suggesting growth will slow to just 0.1% quarter-to-quarter.
- Resilient new orders and hints of an election-driven spending pause suggest the PMI will rebound.
- The services output price balance is little changed in 11 months, pointing to sticky price pressures.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
LATAM RECOVERY REMAINS RESILIENT...
- ...BUT CHALLENGES PERSIST, PARTICULARLY ON THE POLICY FRONT
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
