Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)
- Ms. Lagarde hinted at a rate cut if March forecasts fall below September’s baseline; we doubt they will…
- …The threshold for the ECB to take evasive action in March due to EURUSD is high, likely around 1.25.
- German factory orders soared by almost 10% in Q4, but survey data signal downside risk in Q1.
In one line: The dovish pressure to remain on the ECB going into the March forecasts.
In one line: The dovish pressure to remain on the ECB going into the March forecasts.
- EZ inflation dropped below 2% in January, and is set to remain at that level in February.
- The dovish pressure on the ECB will increase into the March meeting, but likely not enough for a cut.
- A downgrade to the ECB’s near-term core inflation forecast is the main dovish risk for policymakers.
In one line: A last dovish hurrah, probably.
- Soft French inflation data point to the EZ HICP conforming to the consensus today.
- We still see higher domestic inflation offsetting disinflationary currency strength in Switzerland…
- …Swiss headline inflation was likely stable in January, at 0.1%; will the SNB intervene to push down CHF?
- The ECB will hold rates steady this week, amid data to suit both hawkish and dovish policymakers.
- German retail sales rose by 0.3% quarter-to-quarter in Q4, reversing weakness in Q3.
- The Swiss PMIs point to a rebound in growth in early 2026, matching our forecasts.
In one line: Decent Q4, with revisions now signalling strong growth in 2025.
In one line: Falling energy and services inflation overpowered by rising inflation in food and core goods.
In one line: The EZ ends 2025 on a high.
In one line: The EZ ends 2025 on a high.
In one line: Sticky, and hawkish, relative to our expectations.
In one line: Solid GDP, but risks tilted towards a downward revision later; nothing to see in the labour market.
In one line: Solid trend in domestic demand, ex-inventories.
- We now look for EZ headline inflation at 1.8% in January, with the core rate unchanged at 2.3%.
- Energy and services inflation fell in Germany but were overpowered by rising goods and food inflation.
- The EZ economy shrugged off tariff whiplash last year, ending 2025 on a high.
In one line: Easing M1 growth offset by falling inflation, for now.
DOVISH INFLATION DATA SET UP A NERVY Q1 FOR THE ECB...
- …BUT THE BAR FOR FURTHER EASING REMAINS HIGH
- Money supply and credit data signal a stable trend in EZ GDP growth, at 0.3% quarter-to-quarter.
- The headline ESI index jumped to a post-Covid high in January, signalling upside risk to growth.
- ESI selling price expectations eased in January, but upside risk to services inflation lingers.
In one line: Solid details, but will it be sustained?
- EURUSD eyeing 1.20 and beyond adds to the dovish pressure on the ECB ahead of the January HICP…
- …A EURUSD move above 1.22 in coming weeks would likely lower the ECB’s core inflation forecast.
- Italian survey data support our view that a turn in the inventory cycle boosted Q4 GDP.
