In one line: Downturn stalled, but no upturn in sight.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: Downturn stalled, but no upturn in sight.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: New year relief, but still subdued.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The ECB will cut its deposit rate by 25bp this week; discussions on the level of neutral will intensify.
- Upside risks to energy, downside risks to the core in the national CPI and HICP data this week.
- EZ PMIs firmed in January, supporting our call for stronger EZ GDP growth in the first quarter.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Poor, but details better than the headline.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Polls are little changed in Germany; a grand coalition between CDU/CSU and SPD still looks the best bet.
- The debt brake is ripe for change, but what is the best way to loosen Germany’s fiscal rules?
- AFD’s support is rising; is a two-party coalition with the CDU/CSU an outsized risk?
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- A US move to use energy as a bargaining chip in trade negotiations would send EZ prices higher.
- The Greenland question could inadvertently spark a trade war between the EU and the US.
- Mr. Trump’s pledge to end the war in Ukraine quickly is a key test case for America’s NATO commitment.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Upside risks building in energy, but the Q1 core looks benign on our forecasts.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: Upside risks building in energy, but the Q1 core looks benign on our forecasts.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Upside risks are building for EZ energy inflation in January due to rising oil prices and one-off effects.
- Our Q1 core inflation forecasts are lower than the ECB’s, but we’re in line on the headline.
- We still see three more 25bp rate cuts this year, but risks are now tilted towards two.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Core inflation is sticky around 3%.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Investment is falling off a cliff; what’s the play Mr. Merz?
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Dovish; upside risks for the headline in January, but electricity tariffs set to fall sharply in February.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The investment downturn in Germany deepened in 2024; the new government will need to act.
- This year should be a year of recovery for growth in German household consumption.
- Headline inflation in France is set for a volatile few months due to big swings in energy prices.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Euro area equities have been propped up by elevated margins, but can this continue?
- A forecast with margins one SD above their average still points to around 10% downside for EZ equities.
- Book value points to negative returns for EZ equity investors on a five-year basis.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Disappointing, but output will snap back quickly.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- GDP in France likely fell slightly in Q4, and we doubt that Q1 will deliver a strong rebound…
- …But we’re still betting that solid real income growth will support stronger GDP growth from Q2.
- We now forecast 2025 GDP growth in France of 0.8%, marginally higher than the consensus.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Disappointing, but still consistent with a rise in Q4.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
