Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)
In one line: Private sector activity growth slows but Q4 still set to be better than Q3.
In one line: Solid headlines in services; weakness coming in industrial output.
- In one line: Solid headlines in services; weakness coming in industrial output.
In one line: Stable in November; spending should pick up regardless.
- The EZ current account surplus rose marginally in September; a strong euro will bring it down in 2026.
- Foreign investors have moved away from EZ debt and piled into EZ equities over the past year.
- EZ construction output was flat in Q3, after declining in the previous quarter; Q4 will likely be a little better.
In one line: Inflation to stay above 2% in Q4.
- EZ inflation edged down in October, but we still see a near-term rebound to 2.2%, before a fall in January.
- Refining margins are rising, boosting energy inflation, but the trend is still dovish overall.
- Core inflation is set for a small further rise in the near term, before a steady decline over H1 2026.
- Germany’s government will use fiscal policy to lower prices for consumers and firms next year.
- A subsidy to lower electricity prices for energy- intensive industry should lift output in early 2026.
- Germany is set to spend 0.3-to-0.4% of GDP on lower energy prices for consumers and firms.
- The paltry 0.2% increase in EZ GDP in Q3 was confirmed, with minimal new country data.
- Trade figures suggest the drag from net trade in goods in Q2 disappeared in Q3…
- …The main impetus was a jump in exports to the US, which is unlikely to last.
In one line: Sticky, and will remain so until January.
In one line: A minor dip; investor sentiment still signals a solid PMI.
- The ECB is lining up a change in key personnel, but the key transitions are back-loaded to 2027.
- Isabel Schnabel’s departure will almost certainly result in a dovish tilt to the ECB’s communication.
- Investor sentiment has fallen marginally in November but still signals a solid composite PMI.
- A Q4 supply crunch in EZ auto production is averted, but the Nexperia controversy could flare up again.
- EZ auto production fell sharply in Q3, but leading indicators are improving in Germany.
- Auto sales in the EZ slowed in Q3, and leading indicators point to continued sluggish growth in Q4.
In one line: Exports to the US rebounding; deficit with China widening.
- Swiss GDP is likely to have fallen outright in Q3, as US trade tariffs were hiked and unemployment rose.
- The ECB wage tracker implies EZ wage growth eased in Q3 and will slow further out to mid-2026.
- The ECB is not about to end QT, like the Fed; we expect a continued steady run-off, for now.
In one line: Terrible, but also a terrible leading indicator.
In one line: Underwhelming, but we see further gains in early Q4.
- EZ retail spending growth slowed to 0.2% quarter-on-quarter in Q3, from 0.8% in Q2….
- ....but overall consumption growth likely was decent, and we look for more of the same in Q4.
- Rebound in German manufacturing was tepid in September, but output likely rose again in October.
In one line: Rock-solid, but momentum is now slowing.
In one line: A rebound, but what happened to output in September?
