Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)
In one line: The stagflation shock is underway.
In one line: The stagflation shock is underway.
In one line: Stable, but renewed risks now loom.
In one line: Risks tilted to upside for EZ inflation; spending stung by weakness in both core and energy.
In one line: Slowing before the energy shock.
- Inflation in the Eurozone jumped in March, and will rise further in coming months, to 3%.
- We now see higher food inflation adding 0.1pp and 0.2pp to the EZ HICP in 2026 and 2027, respectively.
- Risks are tilted towards an April hike, but we still think the ECB will wait until June.
In one line: Up and away, and more gains are coming.
EUROZONE INFLATION IS SHIFTING HIGHER…
- …FORCING THE ECB TO RESPOND WITH TWO RATE HIKES THIS YEAR, AT LEAST
In one line: A hawkish signal for the ECB.
- German inflation soared in March, as energy prices jumped; core inflation was stable.
- We now see EZ headline inflation at 2.6% in March, with the core dipping by 0.1pp, to 2.3%.
- EC selling prices and consumers’ inflation outlook jumped in March, tilting hawkishly for the ECB.
In one line: German inflation on track to overshoot the consensus today, slightly.
- Inflation in Spain jumped in March, but by less than expected due to timely tax cuts by the government.
- We see EZ headline and core inflation at 2.5% and 2.3%, respectively, in March; it will get worse soon.
- Comments from policymakers suggest the ECB is inching towards an April hike.
In one line: Solid, before inflation saps real M1 growth.
In one line: Relatively stable, but consistent with downside risk to growth.
In one line: Stung by sharp declines in income, and overall, expectations.
- March survey data show clear evidence of weakness from the war in Iran, but markets don’t care.
- Real M1 growth was still robust midway through Q1, but now comes the hit from rising inflation.
- Italian business confidence was resilient in March, but consumer sentiment is plunging.
In one line: Services knocked over amid strength in manufacturing.
- German IFO business sentiment sinks as the energy shock hits, denting hopes of a recovery this year.
- We’re lowering our forecast for German investment, but still see decent growth in Q2 and Q3.
- Fiscal stimulus and the net balance between external demand and inventories are tailwinds for growth.
In one line: Consistent with a relatively cautious ECB, for now.
