Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)
In one line: A rebound, but unemployment fears remain high.
In one line: Details are better than the headline.
In one line: Grim, but services PMI is an unreliable indicator.
In one line: A modest rebound.
- Eurozone PMIs rebounded in June, despite weakness in Germany, and price indices cooled.
- The PMIs continue to signal downside risk to Q2 growth, but we still see GDP rising by 0.1%.
- Falling oil prices and cooling PMI price indices are consistent with the ECB holding fire in July.
- US-Iran talks remain fragile, but the near-term trend is clear; the White House wants lower oil prices.
- EZ survey data should reflect falling oil prices this week; price indices down and services sentiment up.
- Early hard data point to upside risk to Eurozone Q2 GDP growth and still-low recession risk.
In one line: Still supportive of another ECB hike.
- Based on current oil prices, and our forecast for the June HICP, the ECB will hold fire in July…
- …but we still think the bank will tighten by 50bp in the end, so we now see a final hike in September.
- Inflation is now on track to undershoot the ECB’s forecast this year, but not in 2027.
- Eurozone labour costs were rising by just over 3% year-over-year at the start of 2026…
- …but more timely data suggest the trend in wage growth is now easing temporarily, to just over 2%.
- A jump in ZEW investor sentiment in June is the first evidence of US-Iran peace hopes hitting the data.
- A July hike from the ECB is now a long shot, but markets still see one more hike this year.
- Oil futures are still pricing in a 20% uplift to oil prices over the next 12 months compared to before the war.
- The June survey should have a spring in its step if the US-Iran peace deal survives the next few weeks.
In one line: The ECB will hike again, but when?
In one line: As expected, and further tightening is likely.
- The ECB hiked, and Ms. Lagarde struck a hawkish tone, backed by punchy new inflation forecasts.
- We’re maintaining our view of a back-to-back hike in July, though it remains a close call.
- The ECB is worried that a prolonged energy inflation shock is now driving second-round effects.
In one line: Boosted once again by capital goods.
In one line: Looking good for a Q2 rebound in manufacturing.
- A leap in construction boosted German industry in April; core manufacturing is still lagging the surveys.
- Energy-intensive industry in Germany is rebounding, and relative PPI trends point to further gains.
- Nowcast models point to downside risk to German GDP growth in Q2, but it’s still early days.
- The ECB will hike this week, commencing a modest tightening as the US-Iran war drives up inflation.
- An upgrade to the ECB’s 2027 inflation forecast likely will be the main hawkish flash point this week.
- The ECB, faced with the risk of doing too little or too much in light of rising inflation, prefers the latter.
In one line: A setback, but not enough to reverse recent strength.
In one line: Early days, but industry looks on track for a solid Q2.
