Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)
- Swiss inflation likely rose further at the start of Q2, lifted primarily by higher inflation in import prices.
- German manufacturing data for March should reveal gains in both production and new orders.
- Retail sales in the EZ fell in March, but we think the German headline will be revised higher next month.
In one line: See you in June, for a hike.
In one line: See you in June, for a hike.
In one line: In wait-and-see mode, but we suspect with a hawkish bias.
In one line: In wait-and-see mode, but we suspect with a hawkish bias.
In one line: Nasty, and it will get nastier still soon.
In one line: Nasty, and it will get nastier still soon.
In one line: Q1 GDP boosted by consumption and net trade; labour market cracking in Q2?
In one line: Lifted by a further surge in energy inflation.
In one line: Grim, but appear unduly depressed by seasonals.
In one line: Stung by falling energy consumption and plunge in construction.
In one line: Services flattered by plunge in package holiday inflation.
In one line: Real M1 growth is holding up, for now.
In one line: Temporary relief from plunge in package holiday inflation.
THE EUROZONE IS SLIPPING BACK INTO STAGFLATION…
- …THE ECB WILL FOCUS ON INFLATION WITH TWO RATE HIKES THIS YEAR
- The ECB held fire but clearly hinted at a rate hike in June, unless a miracle happens in the Middle East.
- Inflation in the EZ hit 3.0% in April and is on track for 3.5% in May, with the 2026 average at 3.0%.
- EZ GDP growth slowed in Q1, on the eve of the energy shock, and growth will stay subdued in Q2.
- We now see a relatively small rise in Eurozone HICP inflation in April, by 0.1pp, to 2.7%.
- Energy inflation climbed further in the EZ, but the core fell due to a temporary slide in services inflation.
- EC selling price expectations rose across the board in April, and recession probability remained low.
- ECB consumer inflation expectations jumped in March, to 3%, on a three-year basis.
- The ECB’s bank lending survey points to tightening credit standards and weakening loan demand.
- Markets are still pricing the path for the ECB, based on inflation, inflation expectations and the oil price.
In one line: In the footsteps of the PMI and IFO.
- There are downside risks to Q1 GDP growth, but Eurozone inflation rose further in April, to 3.0%.
- Core inflation likely fell a touch in April, due to weakness in services, but it will snap back in May.
- The ECB will stand pat this week, waiting for the June forecasts before its next move—a hike.
