Pantheon Publications

EZ Datanote: Advance Inflation, France, October 2025

In one line: In line with our forecast; a coin toss between 2.1% and 2.2% on the EZ HICP.

EZ Datanote: Retail Sales, Germany, September 2025

In one line: Flat over Q3 as a whole. 

Global Datanote: ECB Rate Decision, October 2025

• In one line: Nothing to see here, move along. 

EZ Datanote: Q3 GDP, State CPIs & Unemployment, Germany

In one line: Germany avoids recession, just; inflation down fractionally in October.

EZ Datanote: Advance GDP, France, Q3

In one line: Allez! 

31 October 2025 Eurozone Monitor ECB holds rates steady as inflation and GDP look resilient

• The ECB took a breather in Florence; no change in policy and little in the way of guidance. 
• Inflation in Spain and Germany, and our forecasts for Italy and France, signal EZ inflation at 2.2% today. 
• EZ GDP rose by 0.2% quarter-to-quarter in Q3, breezing past the ECB’s September forecast.

EZ Datanote: GfK Consumer Confidence, Germany, November

In one line: Stung by volatility income expectations, again. 

EZ Datanote: IFO, Germany, October 2025

In one line: Expectations at a cyclical high.

27 October 2025 Eurozone Monitor EZ PMI rises in October, in line with our view GDP growth is picking up

• The composite PMI for the Eurozone rose in October, as Germany’s index jumped...
• ...The PMI is consistent with better GDP growth in Q4 than Q3, which we think matched Q2’s 0.1% read.
• We still think higher growth and above-target inflation will keep the ECB on hold in December.

Global Datanote: INSEE Consumer Confidence & Flash PMIs, France, October 2025

In one line: PMIs remain terrible, but INSEE survey data look better.

EZ Datanote: INSEE Consumer Confidence & Flash PMIs, France, October 2025

In one line: PMIs remain terrible, but INSEE survey data look better.

EZ Datanote: INSEE Business Confidence, France, October 2025

In one line: Punchy headline, but details remain flaky. 

24 October 2025 Eurozone Monitor Not much for the ECB to talk about next week; all eyes on December

• Inflation data clearly suggest the ECB is now on hold, but other data have tilted dovishly recently. 
• A delay to the implementation of ETS2 could be exactly what ECB doves need for a rate cut in Q4…
• …But our forecasts still imply that the Bank will need to lift its core inflation outlook, precluding a cut. 

22 October 2025 Eurozone Monitor Germany could use some fiscal stimulus right about now

• Germany’s 2026 draft budget promises borrowing of close to 5% of GDP next year; can we believe it? 
• A turn in the investment cycle is the key prerequisite for a pick-up in German growth next year. 
• Risks are tilted to the downside for our upbeat 2026 forecasts, but leading indicators agree with us. 

Global Datanote: Final Inflation, Eurozone, September 2025

• In one line: Core is too strong for another rate cut in Q4.