Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)
- Rising inflation and subdued wage growth point to an outright fall in French real incomes in 2026…
- …But the indexation of minimum wages and social transfers will cushion the blow, in part.
- We now see GDP in France rising by just 0.7% this year, slowing from 0.9% growth in 2025.
- Thailand’s trade deficit blowout in April was caused to a large extent by a violent swing in seasonals…
…But the adjusted gap still hit a record low; we’ve cut our 2026 current account forecast to -1.5%.
- The oil-price boost to yearly import growth should peak soon, but exports are losing momentum too.
- The disinflation from last year’s rally in EURUSD is almost over, but China is still exporting deflation.
- EURUSD would need to rally to 1.25-to-1.30 to offer the ECB any disinflationary help; that looks unlikely.
- Our models signal modest upside risk to EURUSD, but we think 1.17 is a reasonable baseline for now.
- EZ PMIs sank further in May, adding to the evidence that the economy is stuck in a stagflationary hole.
- The ECB will focus on soaring input and output price indices, but the PMIs are warning not to over-tighten.
- Relative weakness in French PMIs likely reflects the lack of fiscal space to lean against soaring inflation.
- Inflation in the Eurozone rose to 3% in April and will increase further in coming months.
- The ECB is on track for a 25bp rate increase in June, and we look for a back-to-back hike in July.
- A return to 2% inflation next year is a fool’s hope, and the ECB will have to adjust its outlook accordingly.
- The EZ energy import bill is soaring and will soon push the nominal trade balance into deficit…
- …But the real trade deficit will likely be relatively stable as the volume of import growth slows.
- The hit to EZ GDP growth from falling net trade is over, but we see no strong boost any time soon.
- Simple as well as hybrid Taylor Rule models suggest the ECB will hike by 75-to-100bp this year.
- Our fair value models see sticky Bund yields around 3%, but fiscal stimulus looms as an upside risk.
- Our forecasts assume that the 2s10s curve will flatten as the ECB tightens.
- Downside risks to EZ economic growth are widening, but we see broadly stable nominal growth.
- The starting position of public deficits makes fiscal balances vulnerable to a slowdown in the economy.
- A recession would widen the EZ budget deficit to 6% of GDP, triggering pro-cyclical tightening.
- Leading indicators on EZ investment took a hit in early Q2, but some are overstating the weakness.
- Upturns in German manufacturing and French construction capex remain upside risks for 2026.
- Surveys signal balanced inventories ahead of frontrunning the supply shock caused by the Iran war.
In one line: Investor sentiment rebounds in May, slightly.
In one line: Boosted by capital goods.
In one line: The core will snap back in May, but a fuel duty cut will lower energy inflation.
- EZ employment growth slowed further in Q1, leaving a thin margin of safety ahead of the energy shock.
- Industrial production in the Eurozone fell in Q1, but the output PMI promises much better data ahead.
- French fuel prices are rising faster than in the other major EZ countries, and the government can’t help.
- A fuel-duty cut will keep German headline inflation in check in May, but we still see a rise to 3% soon…
- …Services inflation in Germany was pulled lower by a plunge in airfares in April; this will reverse in May.
- Italian industry ended Q1 on a strong note; ZEW investor sentiment rebounded in May.
- Strong growth in IP investment, ex-Ireland, and capex in IT show the AI theme in the EZ macro data.
- The US is sprinting ahead on AI investment, while Europe is still walking, barely…
- …ECB data suggest US digital investment is up 80% since 2020, compared with no change in the EZ.
In one line: In one line: A strong end to Q1, but the quarter was poor all the same.
In one line: Output is undershooting leading indicators; net trade boosted Q1 GDP growth.
- German industrial output is still trailing leading indicators; revisions or a rebound are coming.
- Nowcast models for Q1 GDP in Germany look strong despite weakness in industry and retail sales data.
- Industrial output in Spain jumped in March, helping production in the EZ as a whole to a small gain.
- EZ retail sales fell slightly in March; or did they? We think sales in Germany will be revised higher.
- Factory orders in Germany jumped at the end of Q1, pointing to near-term strength in industrial output.
- The EZ construction PMI sank further in April, but the survey is likely overstating the weakness.
- We doubt that a rapprochement between the US and Iran will get the ECB off the hook next month.
- Wage growth in the EZ remains subdued, but risks are tilting to the upside for next year.
- French industry and Italian retail sales ended Q1 on a solid note; the fall in EZ April PMIs is confirmed.
