Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)
In one line: Dovish, but far from underwriting a further rate cut.
In one line: Dovish, but far from underwriting a further rate cut.
In one line: Strong momentum in domestic demand, but risks still loom in early 2026.
- EZ inflation will likely stay low in February, but the bar for further ECB easing remains high…
- …A rebound in liquid fuel inflation is the main near-term upside risk to EZ inflation.
- German domestic demand posted strong growth in Q4; just what the doctor ordered.
- INSEE survey data point to downside risk to growth in French domestic demand, ex-inventories, in Q1.
- Investment in France is still struggling, and consumption growth is vulnerable to a reversal.
- We’re lowering our full-year 2026 growth forecast for France by 0.3pp, to 1.0%.
- Mr. Trump’s new tariffs on the EU are little changed, but will they shift the timing of US imports?…
- …A universal US tariff reduces the disinflationary threat to EZ core goods from Chinese dumping.
- Italian energy prices will fall further this year, as the government aims to lower electricity and gas prices.
In one line: A modest rebound, but GDP growth is doing better than implied by the PMIs.
In one line: A modest rebound, but GDP growth is doing better than implied by the PMIs.
- Eurozone PMIs still support the idea of a modest cyclical upturn in the economy in early 2026.
- Strength in German PMIs is key for the near-term outlook in the Eurozone; so far so good.
- PMI output prices retreat a tad in February but remain inconsistent with further ECB easing.
In one line: Fall in electricity prices offset by higher prices at the petrol pump.
- Inflation in France fell sharply in January, but is now poised for a rebound as energy inflation rises.
- Consumer electricity prices in France are set to become much more volatile after the regulation shift.
- Core inflation in France should hold around 1% for most of 2026, before rising to 1.5% by December.
In one line: Fall in electricity prices offset by higher prices at the petrol pump.
- German electricity prices fell only modestly in January, and petrol prices jumped.
- Low German gas inventories point to upside inflation risk, but also make sense given a shift to LNG supply.
- ZEW investor expectations fell in February but remain close to a cyclical high.
- The Swiss economy eked out growth of 0.2% in Q4 after shrinking in Q3. Q1 looks set to be better.
- EZ industry had a challenging December, and surveys point to downside risk in early Q1.
- We think it is only a matter of time before EU leaders get serious about joint borrowing for defence.
In one line: Decent growth confirmed, but risks tilted towards a downward revision in the third estimate.
In one line: Decent growth confirmed, but risks tilted towards a downward revision in the third estimate.
- Headline inflation in Switzerland held at 0.1%, as imported deflation eased despite a stronger CHF…
- …Regardless, the SNB will not turn to negative rates and may intervene in FX markets instead.
- Decent Q4 GDP growth in the EZ was confirmed, but risks are tilted towards a downward revision.
