In one line: A nasty plunge in manufacturing, but don’t forget rising services output.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Friday’s industrial production data for Germany, France and Spain made for difficult reading.
- The recovery in EZ manufacturing was still missing in Q2, but we look for better in H2.
- The trend in retail sales remains flat, but they still likely picked up in Q2, and services spending rose.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Swiss inflation edged lower, despite an uptick in services; a further, albeit marginal, fall is likely.
- We look for two more SNB rate cuts, taking the policy rate to 0.75% by year-end; markets see fewer cuts.
- The appointment of Martin Schlegel as the new SNB Chairman points to continuity in the rates outlook.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Virtually unchanged, but still on track for around 2% by August.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: Virtually unchanged, but still on track for around 2% by August.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Headline inflation fell marginally in June, but the core was stable; no rate cut in July, but September is on.
- Rising global shipping costs present little upside threat to core goods inflation, for now.
- Services inflation will remain hot in the near term, but surveys point to widening downside risks.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Markets are rallying on the prospect of no RN majority in France, but it’s bit too soon to cheer.
- Eurozone inflation fell further in June, and risks are tilted towards a downside surprise.
- German core inflation is now on a near-straight path towards 2% by the end of the year.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Soft, and further declines are likely over the summer.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Headline and core inflation fell in June.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Rising jobless claims likely will lift unemployment further in the near term.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: EZ headline and core inflation still on track for marginal declines in June.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Inflation in the EZ likely fell in June, by 0.1pp to 2.5%; all set for a dovish message from Sintra this week.
- Forecast upgrades in Spain and France mean we now estimate EZ GDP grew by 0.3% q/q in Q2.
- German unemployment hit a new post-Covid high in June and likely will rise a bit further in Q3.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: M1 growth is rebounding, and the credit cycle is stabilising.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Money data point to continued upside for the PMI, which fell in June; will it rebound?
- Credit figures are consistent with rising consumers’ spending and a rebound in investment soon.
- The first June surveys for Italy and Spain suggest downside risk in the former but strength in the latter.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: No clear sign of a hit from rising political uncertainty, for now.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
A MODEST CYCLICAL UPTURN HAS BEGUN, AND RATES ARE FALLING
- …WILL POLITICAL UNCERTAINTY THROW A WRENCH IN THE WORKS?
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Polls point to a parliament split down the middle in France, but the second-round vote is a wildcard.
- RN’s and NFP’s economic plans will anger bond markets and the EU; Mr. Macron will likely welcome this.
- Survey data so far point to only a modest hit to sentiment in France from rising political uncertainty.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
