- Sell EURUSD and bonds if you’re convinced that Mr. Trump will win Tuesday’s US election.
- Leading indicators for EZ investment are downbeat, but growth still has room to rebound, a touch.
- Capacity utilisation rates point to robust growth in services capex, and the inventory cycle is turning.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The official house price index rebounded in August, rising 1.0% month-to-month.
- The Chancellor’s stimulatory Budget will prevent mortgage rates from falling much further.
- But the drop in mortgage rates thus far means house prices should gain 4.5% year-over-year in December.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
Weakness in the sector extends well beyond Boeing.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- Brazil’s unemployment rate fell to 6.4%, reflecting a significant decline to the lowest level since 2013.
- Record employment highlights a resilient labour market, but conditions likely will deteriorate soon.
- BanRep likely will continue to cut interest rates, but external conditions are a key near-term threat.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- We see Indonesian GDP growth slipping to 4.8% in Q3 on waning consumption and a modest trade hit .
- Government spending and investment should offer some cushion, partly with help from base effects.
- Philippine GDP growth likely relapsed to 4.6% in Q3, in line with the sluggishness in consumption.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Both of China’s October PMIs suggest that fiscal stimulus is star ting to take effect.
- The output price indices also rose, though it’s too early to pop a cork over China’s deflation fight.
- The PBoC’s new liquidity tool provides more flexibility in managing long-term funding.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Swiss inflation surprised to the downside in October, falling to a 40-month low of just 0.6%.
- The headline will likely be further below the SNB’s call in Q4, so we now look for even more easing.
- A floor exists, however; the SNB is heading towards the zero lower bound.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- We cut our forecast for Q3 GDP growth to 0.2% from 0.3% previously, 0.1pp below the MPC’s forecast.
- Ms. Reeves’ Budget will keep the MPC from easing at back-to-back meetings this year.
- We expect four 25bp cuts from rate-setters in 2025, at a pace of one per quarter.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
ECB DOVES HAVE THE UPPER HAND
- BUT THEY WILL STRUGGLE TO PUSH THROUGH 50BP IN DECEMBER
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Downside surprise, SNB will have to ease more than we previously thought.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: Downside surprise, SNB will have to ease more than we previously thought.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- In one line: BanRep maintains steady 50bp rate cuts amid declining inflation and challenging global economic outlook.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Expectations of further rate cuts continue to lift the housing market and corporate borrowing.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
Subdued core PCE inflation and slowing ECI growth green light further material Fed easing.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
Hit to payrolls from Milton likely was limited.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
In one line: A big blow to hopes of a 50bp cut in December.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: A big blow to hopes of a 50bp cut in December.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
The BoJ stays pat and Governor Ueda keeps options open
Duncan WrigleyChina+
