Pantheon Publications

2 January 2024 Eurozone Monitor Rapidly Falling Inflation in Early Q1 Will Prompt an ECB Pivot in March

• Markets think the ECB will cut rates in March, as do we; inflation below 2% by February should do it.
• Energy prices are the key wildcard for headline inflation in Q1; so far the trend looks benign.
• In the core, non-energy goods inflation is about to collapse, but services inflation is still sticky.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

December 2023 - EZ Economic Chartbook

THE ECB IS DONE HIKING; WHEN WILL IT CUT?

• ...WE THINK EASING WILL BEGIN IN MARCH

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

Global Datanote: Final Inflation, Eurozone, November 2023

In one line: Drop confirmed. Inflation will rebound in December, but what happens in January?

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global

EZ Datanote: Final Inflation, Eurozone, November 2023

In one line: Drop confirmed. Inflation will rebound in December, but what happens in January?

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

20 December 2023 Eurozone Monitor EZ Inflation Will Rise in December; January Key for 2024 Forecasts

• Inflation fell sharply in November; it will rebound in December, but what will happen in January?
•  Our inflation forecasts remain at odds with the ECB’s; we still see a March rate cut.  
• We’re betting that inflation falling below target will prompt the ECB to focus less on wage growth.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

19 December 2023 Eurozone Monitor Rebound in Imports to Hold Back EZ GDP Growth in 2024

• Net exports are poised to lift GDP growth in Q4, but by how much? We look for a 0.1pp rise. 
• Export growth will rebound next year, but we think imports will recover relatively more. 
• We believe rising goods imports will weigh on net exports and GDP growth in 2024.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone