China keeps lending rates steady; Japan's exports shrink for the first time in 3 months
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: The start of a more sustained climb?
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- U.S. - The Fed is Done; Inflation Undershoot will Trigger Easing in Q1
- EUROZONE- ECB Pushes Back Against H1 Rate-Cut Predictions
- U.K. - MPC Likely to Wait Until May to Cut Rates
- CHINA+ - China’s Recovery Makes Glacial Progress in November
- EM ASIA - Indonesian Imports Will Continue to Outperform Exports Next Year
- LATAM - Milei Starts Working Hard; Chile Rejects the New Constitution
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
Probably an overshoot, but a steady increase in single-family starts lies ahead.
US
- In one line: Economic activity is grinding to a halt.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: Economic activity is grinding to a halt.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
In one line: Drop confirmed. Inflation will rebound in December, but what happens in January?
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: Drop confirmed. Inflation will rebound in December, but what happens in January?
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
The BoJ stays put as inflation slows and currency pressure eases
Duncan WrigleyChina+
The BoJ stays put as inflation slows and currency pressure eases
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Inflation fell sharply in November; it will rebound in December, but what will happen in January?
- Our inflation forecasts remain at odds with the ECB’s; we still see a March rate cut.
- We’re betting that inflation falling below target will prompt the ECB to focus less on wage growth.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Malaysian export growth fell in November, but this was expected, due to unfriendly base effects…
- … And it should not be extrapolated as a sign of slowing export growth momentum.
- Headline growth in December will likely increase on the back of a turnaround in electronics exports.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- FOMC speeches move markets, but they are not a reliable guide to what will happen in three months.
- The surge in November single-family starts is noise, not signal; expect a correction in December.
- People’s uneasiness over the labor market signals a gradually upward trend in unemployment.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US