- US - The idea of a post-election “vibes” shift is unsupported by surveys
- EUROZONE - Our highlights in a busy week: 25bp ECB cut and soft Q4 GDP data
- UK - Speaking less but saying more; MPC speech frequency declining
- CHINA+ - Surprise fall in China’s PMIs signals recovery is far from assured
- EM ASIA - India’s January PMIs a reality check for a still-rosy consensus
- LATAM - Persistent inflation pressures in Brazil; Mexico’s recovery falters
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- US - Core inflation still likely to be lower by year-end in most tariff scenarios
- EUROZONE - The outlook for EZ inflation in Q1; a hot headline, but a soft core?
- UK - Ignore the December inflation drop; it’s still heading above 3% in April
- CHINA+ - China’s stimulus policies worked in Q4, but recovery won’t be easy
- EM ASIA - BI shrugs off IDR slump and starts 2025 with shock cut; a good move
- LATAM - Will headwinds from a protectionist US hurt the Mexican economy?
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- US - Payrolls are too noisy for December’s data to convincing signal an upturn
- EUROZONE - Will dovish Q1 inflation help bruised and battered EZ bonds?
- UK - GDP likely rebounded by 0.2% month-to-month in November
- CHINA+ - All eyes on China’s likely response to President Trump’s opening salvo
- EM ASIA - Don’t put much stock into India’s 6.4% FAE; the slowdown isn’t over
- LATAM - Brazil’s inflation ends 2024 on a good note, but the outlook is dismal
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- US - Payroll growth likely was sluggish again in December
- EUROZONE - All set for another ‘gradualist’ 25bp rate cut from the ECB
- UK - Forecast review: slow growth and fast inflation to keep MPC cautious
- CHINA+ - Korean business sentiment dives due to political crisis; trade risks rise
- EM ASIA - A few silver linings in otherwise soft December ASEAN PMI
- LATAM - Kicking off 2025 with monetary policy and economic challenges
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- US - How expansionary will fiscal policy really be under President Trump?
- EUROZONE - November PMIs won’t be enough for a 50bp cut in December
- UK - Wage growth will exceed the MPC’s forecast
- CHINA+ - Japan’s core inflation is steady, despite headline dip in subsidies
- EM ASIA - BI stays on hold, spooked by Trump, but easing is far from over
- LATAM - Banxico faces challenges despite falling inflation and weak demand
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- US - October core PCE likely up 0.30%, but details will reassure the FOMC
- EUROZONE - What are the SNB’s options as it edges closer to a policy rate of 0%?
- UK - Mr. Trump’s tariffs will have a limited direct impact on UK GDP
- CHINA+ - China’s household spending boosted by policy; GDP growth target in reach
- EM ASIA - Don’t get carried away by Thailand’s scorching hot Q3 GDP
- LATAM - The LatAm service is on holiday this week, returning next week.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- US - Mr. Trump’s win likely slams the door on rapid Fed normalization next year
- EUROZONE - Early elections in Germany will pave the way for looser fiscal policy
- UK - A cautious MPC will cut rates once per quarter at most
- CHINA+ - China refrains from knee-jerk response to Mr. Trump’s election win
- EM ASIA - GDP growth in Indonesia slips below 5% in Q3, as we predicted
- LATAM - LatAm central banks to adopt a hawkish stance post-US election
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- US - The Fed would have to react to Trump’s trade tariffs this time
- EUROZONE - A Trump win would push EURUSD down, and yields up, on the day
- UK - Ms. Reeves torches Governor Bailey’s plans for rapid rate cuts
- CHINA+ - China’s PMIs point to stimulus gradually gaining purchase
- EM ASIA - The soft patch in ASEAN manufacturing continues
- LATAM - Mexico’s economy thriving in Q3, but outlook depends on US election
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
Subdued core PCE inflation and slowing ECI growth green light further material Fed easing.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- US - Slow growth in October jobs will be more than a Boeing and Milton story
- EUROZONE - Mr. Trump’s 10% tariff would barely make a dent in EZ GDP
- UK - The Budget is worth 25-to-50bp on Bank Rate
- CHINA+ - Japan’s election result makes BoJ rate path more uncertain
- EM ASIA - Manufacturing single-handedly drives Singapore’s scorching Q3
- LATAM - Bad start to Q3 for inflation in Brazil and Mexico, but it should improve
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- US - Households’ liquid assets can’t alone sustain rapid spending growth
- EUROZONE - ECB doves won this month, but easing will be gradual from here
- UK - Budget will be stimulatory, despite large tax increases
- CHINA+ - China still likely to approve further targeted fiscal support
- EM ASIA - BoT’s long overdue cut is here; a December move is touch-and-go
- LATAM - Brazil faces slowdown amid inflation, drought and capex challenges
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- US - Core CPI inflation still on track for 2% in 2025, despite September pick-up
- EUROZONE - The ECB will cut rates this week, but will it strike a hawkish tone?
- UK - Disposable income growth will keep consumption ticking along
- CHINA+ - China still likely to approve further targeted fiscal support
- EM ASIA - No cut—yet—but the RBI tide has turned; all eyes on Q3 GDP
- LATAM - Brazil’s inflation remains benign despite electricity-related shock
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- US - One suspicious-looking jobs number will not distract the Fed
- EUROZONE - Bond yields are too low relative to the medium-term inflation outlook
- UK - Governor Bailey lowers the bar to consecutive rate cuts
- CHINA+ - The lessons of 2015 for assessing China’s current outlook
- EM ASIA - Vietnam’s Q3 GDP shows the economy easily shrugging of Yagi
- LATAM - Colombia’s BanRep to keep cutting rates amid soft economic recovery
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- US - Only three indicators are useful in payroll forecasting; all are flawed
- UK -CPI inflation will be boosted by duties and school fees
- EM Asia-Thailand’s smaller cash handout will be even more trivial for growth
- EZ -October’s rate cut is on; deposit rate set to end 2024 at 3%
- LatAm - Banxico cuts rates as expected, opening door for further easing
- China+ - China’s policy shift puts growth target in reach; bold reforms lacking
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- US - The Fed will abandon plans for a modest, slow easing cycle
- EUROZONE - Sinking September PMIs put an October rate cut back in the frame
- UK - Services inflation close to MPC’s forecast kept rates on hold
- CHINA+ - Deep structural adjustment weighing down China’s domestic
- EM ASIA - How much can we trust the recovery in Indonesian exports?
- LATAM - Brazil’s BCB hikes Selic rate, with a hawkish tone, for now
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- US - Households’ balance sheets: Strong at first glance, fragile on closer look
- EUROZONE - Mr. Draghi’s EU competitiveness report clashes with new fiscal rules
- UK - MPC preview: rates on hold and little new guidance
- CHINA+ - BoJ striking a hawkish tone, though inflation is likely to slow
- EM ASIA - No denying that Indonesian consumers are still under the cosh
- LATAM - Mexico’s industrial sector facing stagnation, amid major challenges
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- PPI and CPI data collectively point to a 0.14% increase in the August core PCE deflator.
- Slowing wage growth, a margin squeeze and lower energy prices will return core inflation to 2% in Q2.
- Jobless claims have fallen since July, but hiring is dropping faster; expect even lower job growth in Q4.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
Don’t panic, it's noise not signal; the core PCE probably rose by about 0.22%
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
Don’t panic, it's noise not signal; the core PCE probably rose by about 0.22%.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- The uptick in the core CPI in August largely was due to the reversal of erratic price falls in prior months.
- We expect smaller increases in primary rent, falling services inflation and flat goods prices through Q4.
- The CPI data tentatively imply a 0.22% core PCE, but will hone our forecast after today’s PPI data.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
