- Our Homebase model points to a 200K rise in private payrolls, but its errors in prior Julys have been big...
- ...So we will place more weight this time on the NFIB, S&P Global, ISM and regional Fed business surveys.
- Headline retail sales probably fell in June, due to a slump in sales of autos and gasoline.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- The June core PCE deflator likely undershot the Fed’s implied forecast pace for a second straight month.
- The jump in PPI trade services looks like noise; margins likely will come under renewed pressure in Q3.
- People expect higher unemployment and lower inflation; the Fed needs to ease, soon.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Plunging airline fares flattered June’s tiny rise in the core CPI, but most services prices were subdued too.
- CPI data and our PPI forecasts map to a 0.17% rise in the core PCE deflator, but our estimate will shift today.
- The Michigan consumer sentiment index probably rose slightly in July, lifted by a surging stock market.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Auto insurance prices likely rebounded in June, driving a 0.3% increase in the core CPI...
- ...But we look for chunky falls in vehicle prices and a modest increase in core-core services prices.
- We look for a rise in jobless claims today, as auto plant and school closures overwhelm the seasonals.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- US - Fears of a labor market downturn will supplant inflation worries at the Fed
- EUROZONE - Right wing in France suffers defeat, as do French pollsters
- UK - Huge Labour majority will usher in modestly better growth
- CHINA+ - PBoC preparing to boost long-term bond yields
- EM ASIA - June CPI laying the groundwork for BSP and BoT cuts next month
- LATAM - Brazil’s economic tightrope; the COPOM faces a balancing act
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- Mr. Powell still wants more good inflation data, but the tiring job market is gaining more of his attention.
- The NFIB survey ticked up in June, but pressure on the economy from high rates remains intense.
- The pick-up in Redbook sales almost certainly overstates current momentum in consumers’ spending.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Job gains are no longer “strong”; Powell might signal rates will be cut swiftly if the slowdown continues.
- Consumers are increasingly worried about losing their jobs, and for good reason.
- NFIB survey likely to suggest that small businesses remain under pressure from high rates.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
Weakening in private payroll growth points to multiple rate cuts in H2.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Private payroll growth slowed sharply in Q2; revisions could easily worsen the picture.
- Tight monetary policy is the primary cause; employment growth will slow further in Q3.
- Wage growth now is consistent with the 2% inflation target; the Fed will ease multiple times in H2.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- We’re sticking with our forecast that payrolls rose by 160K in June, below the 190K consensus.
- The unemployment rate likely was unchanged at 4.0%, but large sampling error creates uncertainty.
- Neither the ISM or S&P services PMI is clearly better than the other; the truth likely lies between the two.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
Layoffs still trending higher, but the data will be noisy over the coming weeks.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- US - May’s PCE data show the Fed has already done more than enough
- Eurozone - We’re lifting our EZ GDP growth forecasts for Q2, by 0.1pp to 0.3%
- UK - Forecast review: Cutting through a storm of strong data
- China+ - China’s light industry outperforms heavy industry, amid soft demand
- EM Asia - Thailand’s year-end digital cash handout will be no silver bullet
- LatAm - Banxico holds rates steady but signals potential for future cuts
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- Chair Powell sounds more optimistic on inflation, but wants to see no further rise in unemployment.
- We expect initial claims above the consensus for the fifth time in six weeks; summer data will be volatile.
- The June ISM services survey will probably provide further signs of disinflation ahead.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Revisions to Homebase data and the latest business surveys support our 125K private payrolls forecast.
- High rates are increasingly subduing construction; private fixed investment likely was unchanged in Q2.
- Manufacturing continues to struggle, with little sign of that changing anytime soon.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
The economy’s main engine of growth is looking a lot weaker.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Real consumption set for another 1.5% increase in Q2; a rising saving rate will slow growth further soon.
- The 0.08% core PCE print was driven by noisy components, but underlying services inflation eased too.
- We look for another sub-50 ISM manufacturing index in June; tight monetary policy is preventing a revival.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
Probably depressed marginally by Juneteenth; the trend remains upwards.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- We’re are lowering our Q2 GDP forecast to 1.0%, from 1.5%, due to May’s poor trade and orders data.
- We estimate that the core PCE deflator rose by just 0.11% in May; a run of sluggish increases beckons.
- Real consumption likely rose by 0.3% in May, with growth of less than 2% looking likely for this quarter.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
