Pantheon Publications

12 January 2026 Emerging Asia Monitor Taiwan's exports finally temper but will still reach new highs in Q4

• Taiwan’s AI boom is losing momentum, with December seeing the first cooling in exports…
• …Export growth will continue to slow in 2026, due to high base effects, despite aggressive AI spending.
• Malaysian retail sales growth slid in December, but this probably won’t matter much for Q4 GDP.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 7 January 2026

Reviving food inflation should soon return Thai CPI to the black

8 January 2026 Emerging Asia Monitor No need to rethink our February BSP cut call after hot December CP

• The Philippines’ hot December CPI was no surprise to us; we still expect a February BSP rate cut.
• Thai deflation eased as much as expected in December, but core disappointed to the downside.
• Taiwanese CPI inched up in December, but we think it will trend down further this year.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 6 January 2026

GDP growth in Vietnam surprisingly holds steady above 8%
A robust end to the year for Vietnamese exports, but momentum continues to fade
December bump salvages Vietnamese real retail sales in Q4
Rising food inflation in Vietnam cushions what could have been a bigger December deceleration
Encouraging, but Philippine sales are still broadly struggling
Philippine food inflation is finally reviving

7 January 2026 Emerging Asia Monitor Reasons to believe Vietnam's Q4 GDP growth shock is the peak

• GDP growth in Vietnam surprised massively to the upside in Q4, rising to 8.4% from 8.1% in Q3…
• …But we still expect to see a sustained moderation this year; our revised 2026 forecast is 7.5%.
• Export momentum has almost vanished, FDI is rolling over, and wage growth is softening.

Global Datanote: CPI, Indonesia, December 2025

• In one line: Brace for a Q1 spike in headline inflation.

Global Datanote: Trade, Indonesia, November 2025

• In one line: Slump in export growth should soon bottom-out.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 5 January 2026

The H2 surge in ASEAN manufacturing ends on a soft note
Slump in Indonesian export growth should soon bottom-out
Brace for a Q1 spike in headline inflation in Indonesia

Global Datanote: Manufacturing PMI, ASEAN, December 2025

• In one line: H2 surge in manufacturing ends on a soft note.

5 January 2026 Emerging Asia Monitor Festive rewind: India's Nov. IP trick; strong Thai US exports are no cure

• India’s punchy November IP print is a big head-fake; cooling manufacturing will hit Q4 GDP growth.
• Thailand’s exports to the US are still soaring, but likely to no real avail for the broader economy…
• …The overall Q4 numbers to date suggest the economy faces a real risk of a technical recession.

Global Datanote: Bank Indonesia Decision, December 2025

• In one line: Look for a change in strategy—to RRR cuts—next year.

EM Asia Datanote: Bank Indonesia Decision, December 2025

• In one line: Look for a change in strategy—to RRR cuts—next year.

Global Datanote: Bank of Thailand Decision, December 2025

• In one line: Expect a quick follow-up cut in February.

EM Asia Datanote: Bank of Thailand Decision, December 2025

• In one line: Expect a quick follow-up cut in February.

18 December 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor BI holds but nods at future RRR action, while BoT eases again

• BI kept its benchmark rate at 4.75%, in line with most expectations; the real rate is close to neutral…
• …Its tone remains dovish, and we continue to believe next year will see a tactical shift to RRR cuts.
• The BoT resumed easing with a 25bp cut; we still expect a quick follow-up cut at February’s meeting.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 16 December 2025

An anticlimactic end for India’s PMIs to 2025

December 2025- Emerging Asia Chartbook

Q3 SHOULD BE THE PEAK IN INDIA’S ABSURD GDP DATA

• …TAIWANESE EXPORTS SHOWING NO SIGN OF PAUSING

17 December 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor Anticlimactic end to 2025 for India's PMIs; a sign of what's to come?

• India’s PMIs continued to roll over in December, altogether pointing to a Q4 GDP growth U-turn…
• …The future output sub-index is going from bad to worse, adding weight to our downbeat 2026 view.
• A plunge in gold imports drove the shrinkage of the trade gap last month, but US exports are bouncing.

EM Asia Datanote: Trade, India, November 2025

• In one line: Historic leap in gold imports in October unwinds dramatically.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 15 December 2025

Upstream food price pressures in India are reviving more noticeably