India’s lofty manufacturing PMI is becoming more well-rounded
India’s unreliable flash services PMI is still plateauing
Higher utilities inflation in Singapore offsets food disinflation in April
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Our final forecast for India’s Q1 GDP next week sees growth slow to 6.2%, from 8.4% in Q4…
- …The hits should come from an import bounce, weaker public spending and a plunge in valuables.
- Taiwanese retail sales will remain subdued for the rest of Q2, but a late -H2 recovery is in the works.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: The calm after last month’s madness.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- Malaysian export growth rose sharply in April, but this was mostly down to favourable base effects…
- …With this support likely to wane in coming months, all eyes are on the recovery in electronics exports.
- BI stood pat yesterday, after April’s shock hike; the economy has yet to feel the full force of this cycle.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- GDP growth in Thailand smashed expectations in Q1, as it fell trivially to 1.5% from 1.7% in Q4…
- …But the consumption-and inventories-led quarterly bounce is dubious and unsustainable.
- Merchandise trade and investment went from bad to worse, though the latter should revive from Q2.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Don’t hang your hat on Thailand’s market-beating Q1 GDP print
Malaysian export recovery still in play despite headline trade figures likely falling in May
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The BSP yesterday left the target reverse repo rate at 6.50%, with its statement still sounding hawkish…
- …But Governor Remolona was more dove than hawk, saying a rate cut in August is now possible.
- The BSP cut its 2024 CPI forecast to 3.8%; it’s been behind the curve and can afford to shoot lower.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: The deficit miss isn’t that bad, seasonal effects aside; don’t put too much stock into the jump in imports.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: A poorer start to Q2 than suggested by the already-soft headline rates.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
A poorer start to Q2 for Indonesian trade than suggested by the already-soft headlines
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Indonesian export growth rose back up above zero in April for the first time in 11 months, to 1.7%…
- …But this was mostly thanks to favourable technicalities; exports are still broadly stagnating.
- A durable return to positive growth should ensue in H2, in large part due to commodity prices.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: A 13-month high, as upstream deflationary forces wane.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Will the Q1 strength in Indonesian sales carry over to Q2?
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Inflation in India continued to slip trivially in April, but we see some positive underlying trends in food.
- The RBI has a narrow window to start easing in Q3, with the room allowed by low core CPI set to vanish.
- Indonesian retail sales saw a promising Q1 revival, but hold judgement until Ramadan effects wane.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Indian IP missed expectations in March, with growth slowing to 4.9%, from 5.6% in February…
- …More softness is likely this quarter, with trends at the margin unspectacular; ignore the rosy PMIs.
- An overdue payback in GDP growth to the tune of 0.6pp is likely in Q1, based purely on the IP signal.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Food inflation remains frustratingly sticky; clearer signs that core has bottomed-out.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: Food inflation remains frustratingly sticky; clearer signs that core has bottomed-out.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia