Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)
- In one line: So much for the RBI’s “resilient” growth outlook.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Taiwanese export growth fell sharply in September, highlighting the risks of its growing US reliance…
- …But this should be a blip, as for ward-looking indicators remain solid, especially for chips.
- CPI has fallen below the CBC’s 2% alert level for the first time in a while, but cuts are still off the table.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Philippine exports are finally staging a real comeback at the margin
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: No cut, but the sea change in policy is here.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
No cut, but the sea change in RBI policy is here
Indonesian retail sales growth recovers to a five-month high
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The RBI held its repo rate at 6.50% yesterday, but finally shifted its stance to “neutral”.
- Its still-optimistic GDP outlook implies it will be easy to justify a December cut, when Q3 growth falls flat.
- The outlook for food inflation—both short- and long-term—is improving, despite isolated shocks.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
The ongoing run of positive Philippine sales growth is fragile
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Philippine sales growth stayed positive in August, but support from remittances will soon U-turn…
- …Consumer confidence remains lacklustre, and the drawdown on already-low savings is no silver bullet.
- Below-target Thai CPI continues to make the case for an imminent rate cut; rising THB risks deflation.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- GDP growth in Vietnam surged to a two-year high in Q3, at 7.4%, handily outstripping expectations…
- …The quarterly profile shows only a trivial loss of steam, despite the damage from Typhoon Yagi.
- The critical export sector is still going strong, though FDI inflows now appear to be peaking.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Base effects from late-2023 utility cuts lead modest headline uptick in Thai inflation
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Philippine inflation dived below the BSP’s range in September, almost ensuring a 25bp cut next week…
- …Persistent under-capacity in heavy industry remains a fundamentally disinflationary force.
- Positive price effects and recovering vehicle sales continue to mask a slump in Singaporean retail.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Below-target range inflation effectively guarantees another BSP cut this month
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Much more food disinflation ahead.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: Export-oriented manufacturers hit a speed-bump at the end of Q3.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
Export-oriented manufacturers in ASEAN hit a speed-bump at the end of Q3
Much more food disinflation ahead in Indonesia
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- ASEAN’s manufacturing PMI fell to a seven-month low in September, as bad weather hit big exporters.
- The downward surprise in Indonesia’s September CPI has more legs than the upward core surprise.
- Indian core IP growth has plunged into the red for the first time since early 2021; all eyes on the RBI.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Thai retail sales growth appears strong, in double digits, but the devil is in the details…
- …Private consumption growth—a more credible measure—remained weak and in the red in August.
- Cyclically, consumer confidence is fading and underlying job-market trends are deteriorating.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
