- India’s shockingly low February CPI was no surprise to us; now expect near-term stability in food CPI…
- …Look for the consensus to move closer to our 3.8% average CPI forecast for 2025; an April cut is a go.
- IP growth rebounded strongly in January, pointing to an early manufacturing cushion for Q1 growth.
Meekita Gupta (Asia Economost)Emerging Asia
- EZ manufacturing is on track for a strong Q1, but trade uncertainty looms over the rest of the year.
- The EU’s retaliation against US metals tariffs still leaves a small overall share of trade directly affected.
- EU import tariffs point to upside risk to consumer price inflation in core goods, in theory.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- House prices grew by 4.6% in 2024 as borrowing costs fell and affordability improved.
- We continue to expect official house prices to rise by 4% year-over-year in 2025.
- Sticky rates represent a downside risk to house prices, but homeowners can still bear the costs.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: A not-too-damning payback from the modest front-running, pre-VAT hike.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- We expect the MPC to keep Bank Rate on hold next week, with an eight-to-one vote in favour.
- GDP growth and inflation overshot MPC expectations, but services inflation and wages undershot.
- We expect stubborn wage growth to limit the MPC to two more rate cuts this year, in May and November.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Tight financial conditions are a drag.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Brazil — A modest performance amid volatility
- Mexico — Hit by US tariff policy uncertainty
- Colombia — Oil, tariffs and politics
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Retail sales growth in Indonesia sank in January as the pre-VAT-hike front-loading unwound.
- The current recovery in consumer confidence—if it holds—points to 2% average sales growth in 2025…
- …Faster growth will be hard to achieve, with spending already above-average in terms of income use.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Growth in compensation-per-employee and the ECB’s wage tracker are easing…
- ...in line with other measures of EZ wage growth, pointing to a sustained slowdown this year.
- We doubt that wage growth will fall to close to 1%, as implied by the ECB’s wage tracker.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- We look for a 28K month-to-month fall in February payrolls, which will eventually be revised up.
- The unemployment rate should hold at 4.4% in January, although it could easily round up to 4.5%.
- Pay growth is proving stubborn; we expect January private ex-bonus AWE to rise 0.4% month-to-month.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
In one line: Surging, thanks to Germany’s “whatever it takes” moment.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- In one line: REC’s recovery indicates that the labour market is stabilising.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
In one line: Solid rise in industrial output, but net trade remains subdued.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- US - February payroll growth was solid, but a slowdown looms this spring
- EUROZONE - A look on the bright side for GDP growth in the Eurozone
- UK - CPI preview: on the cusp of 3.1%, as core inflation ticks up
- CHINA+ - Premier Li announces step-up in fiscal support; still room for more
- EM ASIA - Ignore Vietnam’s first trade deficit in years; US tariff front-running is here
- LATAM - Trade, inflation and economic activity risks under Trump 2.0
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- High interest rates and global demand weakness are weighing on Brazil’s industrial production.
- Persistent inflation pressures challenge Colombia’s BanRep, delaying rate cuts and stifling growth.
- High indexation and labour costs will keep inflation above the Bank’s target in 2025.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Services production was up sharply in Q4, thanks to continued strength in IT services.
- Surveys remain positive on the outlook for services, and the sector will lead the increase in GDP in Q1.
- Our nowcast model is looking ugly, but we reiterate our call for a pick-up in EZ GDP growth, for now.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
