Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Solid growth unlikely to prevent a November easing.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
No reason to change payroll forecasts, given ADP's poor record
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- The latest claims data suggest the hit to NFP from Hurricanes Helene and Milton was relatively small.
- September’s hefty rise in the core PCE deflator will be a blip; October’s storm-related boost will be small.
- Job market loosening points to lower core inflation in 2025, but Mr. Trump’s tariffs would upend that story.
Samuel TombsUS
- Mexico saw strong growth in Q3, driven by agriculture and services, yet challenges lie ahead.
- Political uncertainty surrounding the US presidential election poses a risk to Mexico’s economy.
- Key sectors are showing resilience, but external factors could hit future growth and capex decisions.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- The BoJ left the policy rate on hold yesterday, at 0.25%, as expected given the recent election.
- Governor Ueda was deliberately vague about signalling the timing of the next rate hike.
- China’s October official PMI shows fiscal stimulus gaining traction, led by large enterprises.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- A trio of strong data tilts the balance of risk further in favour of a 25bp rate cut in December.
- Core inflation was firmer than expected in October, and it will increase a touch in November too.
- The ECB battle over the neutral rate has begun; Ms. Schnabel likely sees a relatively high number.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- We expect the MPC to vote eight-to-one to cut Bank Rate by 25bp at next Thursday’s policy meeting.
- Growth, inflation and crucially CPI services inflation have undershot rate-setters’ expectations.
- The MPC will open the option of consecutive cuts, but higher forecast inflation will keep it cautious.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
In one line: Little in the GDP data to support an accelerated ECB easing cycle.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- In one line: Resilient, but the near-term outlook remains difficult.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: Resilient, but the near-term outlook remains difficult.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
In one line: Recession averted (again), labour market weakness continues and upside risks to October inflation.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Disappointing; was the hit from construction investment bigger than we thought?
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Stellar again; inflation increase driven by energy base effects
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Decent, but nothing to write home about ex-Olympic boost.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Both the job postings-to-unemployment ratio and the quits rate are now well below pre-Covid levels.
- ADP’s data has a poor record of capturing the hit to private payrolls from hurricanes.
- September’s jump in the trade deficit was due to inventory accumulation; Q3 GDP growth will be strong.
Samuel TombsUS
Pick-up probably election-related; spending growth unlikely to keep strengthening.
Samuel TombsUS
Larger deficit driven by stockpiling in preparation for the port strikes.
Samuel TombsUS
- Strong growth in consumption drove another solid expansion in headline GDP in Q3.
- But household are running out of steam, and the cracks are starting to show in investment spending.
- Claims today are unlikely to tell us much about Milton’s likely impact on the October jobs report.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- EZ GDP rose more than we and the ECB had expected in Q3, and growth picked up from Q2.
- France, Spain and Germany all contributed positively, while GDP stagnated in Italy.
- Advance CPI data in Germany and Spain point to upside risks to EZ core inflation today.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The Chancellor used most of the extra borrowing capacity permitted by her new rules to spend more now.
- This loosening, and the extra labour costs for firms, will lift inflation, forcing the MPC to ease slowly.
- Headroom is tiny, so taxes might rise again if growth flags or interest rates exceed the OBR’s forecast.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
