Pantheon Publications

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 4 June 2024

ASEAN’s main exporters are finally staging a revival… slowly

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

5 June 2024 Emerging Asia Monitor So much for the absurdly high expectations for Modi 3.0

• The BJP’s disappointing result in the 2024 election means the risk of coalition politics in India is back.
• The PMI for ASEAN rebounded well in May, thanks to the fragile recovery of the region’s key exporters.
• Indonesia’s softer-than-expected May CPI bolsters our dovish 2024 view on rates and inflation.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

May 2024 - Emerging Asia Chartbook

TAIWAN’S PUNCHY Q1 GDP IS AS GOOD AS IT’LL GET

• …ELECTION TAILWINDS IN INDONESIA’S Q1 ARE IRREPLICABLE

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 3 June 2024

Food disinflation in Indonesia is intensifying

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

EM Asia Datanote: Q1 GDP and April Core Production, India

• In one line: Exports—alone—steal the show in Q1, papering over a continued slowdown in domestic demand.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

EM Asia Datanote: Retail Sales, Thailand, March

• In one line: An inevitable return to the red.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

3 June 2024 Emerging Asia Monitor The devil's in the details of India's consensus-beating Q1 GDP print

• India’s Q1 GDP beat expectations, with growth slowing only modestly to 7.8% from 8.6% in Q4…
• …But an unsustainable jump in exports was the lone bright spot; domestic demand continues to slow.
• The slowdown in investment growth is intensifying, while private consumption remains woefully subpar.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia