- In one line: Export-oriented manufacturers hit a speed-bump at the end of Q3.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
Export-oriented manufacturers in ASEAN hit a speed-bump at the end of Q3
Much more food disinflation ahead in Indonesia
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: The 50bp pace of rate cuts continues amid mixed economic signals and a cautious inflation outlook.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: The 50bp pace of rate cuts continues amid mixed economic signals and a cautious inflation outlook.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- US - Only three indicators are useful in payroll forecasting; all are flawed
- UK -CPI inflation will be boosted by duties and school fees
- EM Asia-Thailand’s smaller cash handout will be even more trivial for growth
- EZ -October’s rate cut is on; deposit rate set to end 2024 at 3%
- LatAm - Banxico cuts rates as expected, opening door for further easing
- China+ - China’s policy shift puts growth target in reach; bold reforms lacking
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- ASEAN’s manufacturing PMI fell to a seven-month low in September, as bad weather hit big exporters.
- The downward surprise in Indonesia’s September CPI has more legs than the upward core surprise.
- Indian core IP growth has plunged into the red for the first time since early 2021; all eyes on the RBI.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Headline inflation in the EZ fell below the ECB’s target in September for the first time since 2021.
- Deeper energy deflation was the main drag, but core inflation also eased a touch.
- We look for the ECB to cut twice more this year, by 25bp in both October and December.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Sharply falling motor fuel prices will drag down CPI inflation to 1.9% in September, from 2.2% in August.
- Core goods inflation should hold at 0.3% year-over-year, but BRC Shop Prices pose a downside risk.
- We expect core and services inflation close to theMPC’s August Monetary Policy Report forecast.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Q2 GDP growth revised down but remains above potential, while downward saving rate revisions point to slightly less cautious consumers.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
In one line: German HICP inflation falls below 2% for the first time since March 2021; it will increase again in Q4.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
LATIN AMERICAN CENTRAL BANKS TACKLE INFLATION…
- …AND GROWTH CHALLENGES, AMID GLOBAL PRESSURES
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Brazil’s unemployment rate drops to record low, indicating tight labour market conditions….
- …But economic indicators suggest potential job market slowdown as tight financial conditions bite.
- Chile’s August economic data was strong, yet leading indicators signal caution for future growth.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Thai retail sales growth appears strong, in double digits, but the devil is in the details…
- …Private consumption growth—a more credible measure—remained weak and in the red in August.
- Cyclically, consumer confidence is fading and underlying job-market trends are deteriorating.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- China's manufacturing PMIs point to shrinking activity, while the service sector continues to slow.
- Construction seems to be stabilising; we expect a stimulus impact soon, on faster bond issuance.
- Measures announced should lift short-term growth, but expect more monetary and fiscal support in Q4.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- German HICP inflation is now below 2% for the first time since March 2021.
- As of September Italian inflation has been below 2% for a year, though it slid less than we thought.
- EZ inflation still likely fell to below the ECB’s target; today’s data will show it coming in at 1.8%.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Q2 GDP growth was revised down to 0.5% quarter-to-quarter, but the mix of growth is better…
- …Business capex growth was revised up and cuts to the saving rate signal less cautious consumers.
- Surging mortgage approvals show consumers are responding quickly to the MPC’s interest rate cut.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
