Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
In one line: Construction boost to growth in Q4 unlikely to repeat in Q1.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The S&P PMI points to growth in final sales to private domestic purchasers slowing to just 2% in Q1.
- The PMI was too gloomy during the first trade war, but tariff and federal spending risks are bigger now.
- Tariff threats also are driving consumers’ confidence lower and inflation expectations higher.
Samuel TombsUS
- Mexico’s GDP contracted in Q4, with weak industrial and agricultural sectors driving the decline.
- The IGAE point to a subpar Q1; rising external— trade—uncertainty weighs heavily on growth.
- Banxico faces a tough balancing act, as inflation risks and policy noise cloud its rate-cut decisions.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Vietnam has officially raised its 2025 GDP growth target to 8%; its doable if M2 doesn’t fall too fast…
- …But interest rates are clearly on an uptrend, and the dark cloud of NPLs is still hanging over banks.
- We expect growth in India to bounce to 6% in Q4, but most of this will come from technicalities.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Japan’s consumer inflation jumped in January, largely on the back of rice and vegetable inflation.
- Core inflation is also creeping up, reinforcing the BoJ’s de termination to keep normalising policy this year.
- But Governor Ueda on Friday signalled a readiness to intervene to prevent yields from getting too far ahead.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- The upturn in the EZ PMIs stalled in February, due to a plunge in the French services index.
- Near-term outlook for services output is still decent, and the PMIs signal green shoots in industry, again.
- ECB hawks will focus on rebounding services prices; doves will note weak French labour-market data.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The PMI signals an almost catastrophic jobs outlook, but more reliable official data are better.
- The official employment data look more plausible to us; payrolls have stalled rather than collapsed.
- Inflation is proving stubborn, as firms increasingly pass through cost increases to prices.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
China's lending benchmark rates left unchanged
Duncan WrigleyChina+
PBoC waiting for the trade war to heat up
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Waiting for more disinflation progress to ease again.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
The underlying trend in residential construction is flat and likely to turn lower.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
GROWTH IN SPENDING & PAYROLLS TO SLOW MID-YEAR…
- …FALLING SERVICES INFLATION TO OFFSET THE TARIFF BOOST
Samuel TombsUS
- In one line: Softer than feared services offset by global price pressures, further inflation acceleration lies ahead.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Seasonally adjusted house prices rise in December to cap a strong year, but house-price inflation will be even stronger in 2025.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The core CPI-PCE inflation gap likely increased to 0.7pp in January; the relatively big gap will last.
- Tariffs and rising auto insurance premiums will boost the CPI more than the PCE deflator.
- Existing home sales probably dropped in January, marking the start of a sharp fall in Q1 overall.
Samuel TombsUS
- Mexican retail sales stagnated in Q4, with high inflation and weak remittances dampening consumption.
- The labour market remains resilient, but weak job creation signals risks to economic momentum.
- Peru’s growth momentum slowed in December, but the outlook is positive, assuming no tariffs.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- President Xi’s meeting with tech executives on Monday was important for symbolism and policy.
- But it won’t magically solve the macro challenges of sagging profits and weak demand.
- Rapid AI adoption is disruptive for hiring demand; skills mismatches will weigh on the labour market.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Isabel Schnabel has added fuel to the idea that the ECB’s easing cycle will end soon; we agree.
- President Trump’s latest tariff threat—on cars, chips and drugs—would have a small impact on EZ GDP.
- The CDU/CSU will win the German election, but not by enough for a majority; brace for coalition talks.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Firms are adjusting to payroll-tax hikes across several dimensions, rather than just slashing employment.
- More firms say they will raise prices than cut employment in response to increased NICs.
- Accordingly, we think the weakest surveys of job growth are exaggerating the employment slowdown.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Patience is a virtue, in this climate.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
