- In one line: Food inflation remains frustratingly sticky; clearer signs that core has bottomed-out.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: Food inflation remains frustratingly sticky; clearer signs that core has bottomed-out.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Soft, as we cautioned, and the big picture isn’t looking great either.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: Soft, as we cautioned, and the big picture isn’t looking great either.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
A very quiet start to the year for the Philippine economy, especially in private domestic demand
Malaysian retail sales growth rises in March, despite a drop in wholesale growth
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- GDP growth in the Philippines inched up to 5.7% in Q1, from 5.5% in Q4, but fell short of the consensus.
- We have raised our 2024 GDP forecast to 5.2%, still implying a drop from 2023; consumption is frail.
- The post-Covid catch-up in investment still has legs, but plunging building permits is a big red flag.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
The H2 2023 recovery in Philippine sales hit a big speed-bump in Q1
Not the kind of deficit reduction we’d like to see
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Inflation in Taiwan surprisingly fell in April, as fears over the electricity-tariff hike proved overblown…
- …But slowing goods disinflation and sticky services inflation will make a further moderation tougher.
- Philippine inflation also shocked to the downside in April; a June rate cut is still live.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
April CPI stays unexpectedly within the BSP's target range
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- GDP growth in Indonesia ticked up to 5.1% in Q1, from 5.0% in Q4, in line with the consensus…
- …But thanks largely to a big—and unsustainable—election-period jump in government expenditure.
- The Q4 inventories lift disappeared overnight, with exports still flailing, while capex softened noticeably.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Our final forecast for Thailand’s Q1 GDP sees growth slowing to just 0.7%, from 1.7% in Q4…
- …The slowdown in consumption is the main drag, alongside the fading yearly lift from net trade.
- The six-month bout of CPI deflation ended in April, as food and transport inflation returned to the black.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
The six-month spell of Thai deflation comes to an end
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Food inflation finally turns a corner; more of this, please.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: Export-oriented manufacturers continue to underperform.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
Export-oriented ASEAN manufacturers continue to underperform
Food inflation in Indonesia finally turns a corner; more of this, please
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The turnaround in ASEAN’s manufacturing PMI remains largely intact, despite the April slip…
- …But the region’s more export-oriented countries are still underperforming; orders remain in the red.
- Indonesian inflation saw a positive downside surprise in April, as food inflation turned a corner.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Decent, and the drag from refined petroleum products should reverse in the short run.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Back down to earth, and likely more pain ahead.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
