- In one line: A cautious pause amid mixed economic signals.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: A cautious pause amid mixed economic signals.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: A cautious hold, prioritizing inflation control amid persistent challenges.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: A cautious hold, prioritizing inflation control amid persistent challenges.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Struggling, the near-term outlook remains challenging.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: Struggling, the near-term outlook remains challenging.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Manufacturing growth and employment to accelerate as business optimism soars.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: House price inflation beats expectations again.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
In one line: We think the manufacturing PMI is too downbeat, even after the upward revision.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- In one line: BanRep maintains steady 50bp rate cuts despite board divide.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: BanRep maintains steady 50bp rate cuts despite board divide.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
The PMI is probably a poor guide to the national picture.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
In one line: Blame Italy for the upside surprise.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: Blame Italy for the upside surprise.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Homebase data are less useful than usual in July, but business surveys point to sluggish growth in payrolls.
- We see an even chance of the Sahm rule being triggered and expect a below-trend 0.2% increase in AHE.
- Growth in unit labor costs has slowed to well below 2%, pointing to further falls in core inflation ahead.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Brazil, Colombia, and Chile’s central banks diverge in their monetary policy decisions, but caution prevails.
- BCB maintains Selic rate at 10.50%, emphasizing vigilance given inflation pressures and fiscal risk.
- BanRep cuts rate to 10.75%, Chile holds at 5.75% amid mixed economic signals and inflation threats.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Both July manufacturing PMIs indicate declining activity, especially the dip in the Caixin PMI.
- Extreme weather is only partly to blame; domestic demand is weak, as the growth model is revamped.
- China will keep adjusting incremental stimulus until growth is back on track at the “about 5%” target.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- Eurozone unemployment rose slightly in June, but the underlying trend is still flat.
- Surveys point to downside risks to employment growth and upside risks to unemployment in H2…
- …Yet our own GDP growth forecasts point to a better near-term outlook.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
