- Q2 GDP growth was revised down to 0.5% quarter-to-quarter, but the mix of growth is better…
- …Business capex growth was revised up and cuts to the saving rate signal less cautious consumers.
- Surging mortgage approvals show consumers are responding quickly to the MPC’s interest rate cut.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: A 3.5-year low; base effects were the main culprit, but momentum is vanishing.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: MPC interest rate cuts are boosting the housing market and corporate borrowing.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: House prices rebound strongly in September.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
In one line: German inflation likely fell in line with consensus.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- In one line: Boosted—again—by volatile ‘other’ sales.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Net trade probably only a small drag on headline growth in Q3.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- In one line: Resilient at the headline level, for now.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
In one line: Down, like the PMI, and dovish on inflation and wages.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Jobless claims in Germany rise again; EZ inflation expectations cool further.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: An October cut is now fully priced, and for good reason.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- In one line: The door has been left open for further easing.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: The door has been left open for further easing.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Banxico has cut interest rates as expected, and maintains a dovish stance amid economic weakness.
- Declining inflation, struggling economic activity and the Fed’s easing will allow further rate cuts.
- Argentina’s radical reforms drive a modest recovery, yet significant challenges remain.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- The potential lift from Thailand’s initial cash relief will still be limited by deteriorating balance sheets.
- Big-bang restart of the BSP’s RRR cuts likely to be followed by smaller but more frequent reductions.
- The post-pandemic rise in India’s LPFR, which has flattered the unemployment rate, has peaked.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- French and Spanish inflation data lend support to ECB doves pushing for an October cut...
- ...But beware of whiplash in market pricing, if the German and Italian data don’t play ball.
- French consumer spending isn’t going anywhere in Q2; German jobless claims are still rising.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- We have nudged down our Q3 GDP growth forecast to 0.3% quarter-to-quarter after GDP flatlined in July.
- We lift our 2025 inflation forecast as we add in above inflation duty hikes and private school fee rises.
- We expect a 25bp rate cut in November and three more in 2025, as the MPC guides to “gradual cuts”.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
Recovery in home sales likely to be very slow.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
