Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)
A surprisingly fast start to 2025 for Philippine trade
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- India’s Q4 GDP print was exactly in line wit expectations, at 6.2%, rebounding from 5.6%…
- …Consumption, mainly rural, continues to find its feet, while exports—especially services—are flying.
- The Philippines’ structural RRR cuts are likely over, but they are no substitute for lower TRR rates.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
RBI RATE CUTS FINALLY HERE; EXPECT 2 MORE IN Q2
- …THAI GROWTH HAS LIKELY PEAKED, PROMPTING A BOT CUT
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Expect one more—final—cut in Q2, after today’s surprise reduction.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: Expect one more—final—cut in Q2, after today’s surprise reduction.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The BoT surprised this month, resuming its easing with a 25bp cut, against the consensus for a hold…
- …We expect one—final—cut in Q2, as rising GDP growth and inflation should shortly reverse course.
- Taiwanese retail sales growth jumped in January, but the underlying story remains weak.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Indian services wake up from its slumber, but a Q1 GDP slowdown is still in play
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Vietnam has officially raised its 2025 GDP growth target to 8%; its doable if M2 doesn’t fall too fast…
- …But interest rates are clearly on an uptrend, and the dark cloud of NPLs is still hanging over banks.
- We expect growth in India to bounce to 6% in Q4, but most of this will come from technicalities.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Patience is a virtue, in this climate.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: Patience is a virtue, in this climate.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Bank Indonesia held its policy rate at 5.75%, hitting pause again after January’s surprise rate cut…
- …We’re sticking to our above-consensus 100bp 2025 easing call, with inflation set to cool further.
- Mr. Prabowo’s ‘austerity’ leaves the ball more in BI’s court too, even if this drive doesn’t fully materialise.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Deficit hit on both sides of the balance.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- GDP growth in Thailand disappointed, increasing modestly to 3.2% in Q4, from 3.0% in Q3…
- …Helpful import base effects did a lot of the heavy lifting; ‘robust’ export momentum remains fragile.
- Domestic demand was nowhere to be seen; we still expect a small GDP growth dip in 2025, to 2.4%.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: A very unwelcome leap in the trade surplus.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
Thailand’s 2-speed economy ends 2024 on a somber note
A very unwelcome January leap in Indonesia’s trade surplus
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Moderation in upstream food pressures in India is the real deal
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Chinese start-up, DeepSeek, shattered the idea that better chips equate to better AI models...
- …Investors panicked, leading to a 6% plunge in TSMC shares after markets opened on February 3.
- The panic was overblown, yet TSMC does face other serious headwinds.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: This surprise pause won’t last long.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
