Pantheon Macroeconomics

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Pantheon Publications

Below is a list of our Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)

Global Datanote: CPI, India, April

  • In one line: Food inflation remains frustratingly sticky; clearer signs that core has bottomed-out.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global

EM Asia Datanote: CPI, India, April

  • In one line: Food inflation remains frustratingly sticky; clearer signs that core has bottomed-out.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

Global Datanote: Industrial Production, India, March

  • In one line: Soft, as we cautioned, and the big picture isn’t looking great either.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global

EM Asia Datanote: Industrial Production, India, March

  • In one line: Soft, as we cautioned, and the big picture isn’t looking great either.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 9 May 2024

A very quiet start to the year for the Philippine economy, especially in private domestic demand
Malaysian retail sales growth rises in March, despite a drop in wholesale growth

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

10 May 2024 Emerging Asia Monitor Weak consumers still point to a 2024 slowdown in the Philippines

  • GDP growth in the Philippines inched up to 5.7% in Q1, from 5.5% in Q4, but fell short of the consensus.
  • We have raised our 2024 GDP forecast to 5.2%, still implying a drop from 2023; consumption is frail.
  • The post-Covid catch-up in investment still has legs, but plunging building permits is a big red flag.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 8 May 2024

The H2 2023 recovery in Philippine sales hit a big speed-bump in Q1
Not the kind of deficit reduction we’d like to see

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

9 May 2024 Emerging Asia Monitor Forget electricity prices, focus on sticky services inflation in Taiwan

  • Inflation in Taiwan surprisingly fell in April, as fears over the electricity-tariff hike proved overblown…
  • …But slowing goods disinflation and sticky services inflation will make a further moderation tougher.
  • Philippine inflation also shocked to the downside in April; a June rate cut is still live.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 7 May 2024

April CPI stays unexpectedly within the BSP's target range

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

8 May 2024 Emerging Asia Monitor Temporary election-related boosts hid holes in Indonesia's Q1 GDP

  • GDP growth in Indonesia ticked up to 5.1% in Q1, from 5.0% in Q4, in line with the consensus…
  • …But thanks largely to a big—and unsustainable—election-period jump in government expenditure.
  • The Q4 inventories lift disappeared overnight, with exports still flailing, while capex softened noticeably.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

7 May 2024 Emerging Asia Monitor Thailand's Q1 GDP likely to bring nothing but disappointment

  • Our final forecast for Thailand’s Q1 GDP sees growth slowing to just 0.7%, from 1.7% in Q4…
  • …The slowdown in consumption is the main drag, alongside the fading yearly lift from net trade.
  • The six-month bout of CPI deflation ended in April, as food and transport inflation returned to the black.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

Global Datanote: CPI, Indonesia, April

  • In one line: Food inflation finally turns a corner; more of this, please.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global

Global Datanote: Manufacturing PMI, ASEAN, April

  • In one line: Export-oriented manufacturers continue to underperform.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 2 May 2024

Export-oriented ASEAN manufacturers continue to underperform
Food inflation in Indonesia finally turns a corner; more of this, please

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

3 May 2024 Emerging Asia Monitor Much-needed reality check for the recovery in ASEAN exports

  • The turnaround in ASEAN’s manufacturing PMI remains largely intact, despite the April slip…
  • …But the region’s more export-oriented countries are still underperforming; orders remain in the red.
  • Indonesian inflation saw a positive downside surprise in April, as food inflation turned a corner.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

EM Asia Datanote: Core Production, India, March

  • In one line: Decent, and the drag from refined petroleum products should reverse in the short run.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

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